Jacob Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany A

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Langendijk · Erika Coppola · Filippo

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Giorgi · James M. Ciarlo` · Francesca

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Raffaele · Graziano Giuliani · Gao Xuejie ·

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Taleena Rae Sines · Jose Abraham Torres

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Alavez · Sushant Das · Fabio di Sante ·

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Emanuela Pichelli · Russel Glazer ·

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Moetasim Ashfaq · Melissa Bukovsky ·

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Eun-Soon Im

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Received: date / Accepted: date

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C. Teichmann

Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany

Tel.: +49 40 226 338 406 Fax: +49 40 226 338 163 E-mail: claas.teichmann@hzg.de D. Jacob

A. R. Remedio

T. Remke

L. Buntemeyer

P. Hoffmann

A. Kriegsmann

L. Lierhammer

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20095 Hamburg, Germany E. Coppola

The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), strada costiera 11, 34135 Trieste, Italy

F. Giorgi

J. M. Ciarlo`

National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS) F. Raffaele

G. Giuliani

Gao Xuejie

Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sci- ences, Beijing, China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Taleena Rae Sines

J. A. Torres Alavez

S. Das

F. di Sante

E. Pichelli

R. Glazer

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Moetasim Ashfaq

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Melissa Bukovsky

National Center for Atmospheric Research Eun-Soon Im

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

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(a) NorESM1-M REMO2015 (b) NorESM1-M REMO2015

(c) NorESM1-M RegCM4 (d) NorESM1-M RegCM4

(e) GFDL-ESM2M RegCM4 (f) GFDL-ESM2M RegCM4

Fig. 1: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 2: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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(a) MPI-ESM-LR REMO2015 (b) MPI-ESM-LR REMO2015

(c) MPI-ESM-MR RegCM4 (d) MPI-ESM-MR RegCM4

Fig. 3: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

2 Far-future GCM-RCM Climate change signals over IPCC reference

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regions

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2.1 Temperature

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2.2 Precipitation

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(c) MPI-ESM-LR RegCM4 (d) MPI-ESM-LR RegCM4

(e) MPI-ESM-MR RegCM4 (f) MPI-ESM-MR RegCM4

Fig. 4: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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(a) HadGEM2-ES REMO2015 (b) HadGEM2-ES REMO2015

(c) HadGEM2-ES RegCM4 (d) HadGEM2-ES RegCM4

(e) MIROC5 RegCM4 (f) MIROC5 RegCM4

Fig. 5: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 6: Mean near-surface temperature climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 7: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 8: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 9: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 10: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the low equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 11: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 12: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 13: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 14: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the medium equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 15: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 16: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 17: Mean absolute precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 18: Mean relative precipitation climate change signal for the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) for the near-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2070-2099) with respect to the historical reference climate (1971-2000) as simulated by individual RCMs driven with the high equilibrium climate sensitivity CORDEX-CORE GCMs HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Areas that show a significant climate change signal are hatched (see Section 3.2 for details).

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Fig. 19: Temperatures climate change signals for AR5-GCMs and CORDEX- CORE RCMs in the IPCC reference regions over the AFR-22 domain. Temperature climate change signals over selected IPCC reference regions are plotted for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 at the end of the century (2020-2099) for the entire AR5-GCM ensemble, the CORDEX-CORE driving GCMs of the respective CORDEX-CORE domain and the CORDEX-CORE RCMs. The climate change signal of the AR5- GCM ensemble is depicted as a box-whisker plot. The driving AR5-GCMs with low, medium and high equilibrium climate sensitivity are plotted as gray triangles pointing upwards, circle and triangle pointing downwards, respectively. Primary GCMs are marked with a solid border. The RCMs driven by low, medium and high equilibrium climate sensitivity GCMs are drawn using the same symbols as before, but in orange for REMO and in blue for RegCM. Primary driving GCMs are again marked with a solid symbol border.

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Fig. 20: same as Fig. 19 but over the AUS-22 domain.

Fig. 21: same as Fig. 19 but over the CAM-22 domain.

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Fig. 22: same as Fig. 19 but over the EAS-22 domain.

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Fig. 23: same as Fig. 19 but over the EUR-11 domain.

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Fig. 24: same as Fig. 19 but over the NAM-22 domain.

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Fig. 25: same as Fig. 19 but over the SAM-22 domain.

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Fig. 27: same as Fig. 19 but over the WAS-22 domain.

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Fig. 28: Annual cycles of temperature for the historical time period and annual cycles of climate change signals for AR5-GCMs and CORDEX-CORE RCMs in the IPCC reference regions over the AFR-22 domain. Annual cycles of temperatures are plotted for the historical time period (1970-2000) on the left hand side of each plot. The bandwidths of the annual cycles are shown for the entire AR5-GCM ensemble (gray areas), where the black solid lines represent the ensemble-median.

CORDEX-CORE RCMs REMO and RegCM are depicted as orange lines and blue lines, respectively. As a reference, annual cycles of CRU TS4.02 (dotted red line) and ERA5 (dash-dotted red line) are drawn. Annual cycles of temperature climate change signals are plotted for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 at the end of the century (2070-2099) at the right hand side of each plot. The shaded areas represent the climate change signals of the GCMs for RCP2.6 (blue shaded areas) and RCP8.5 (red shaded areas), where the black solid lines represent the ensemble median for RCP2.6 (dashed black lines) and RCP8.5 (solid black lines). Annual cycles of climate change signals are plotted for the CORDEX-CORE RCMs REMO (orange lines) and RegCM (blue lines) for RCP2.6 (dashed lines) and RCP8.5 (solid lines).

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Fig. 37: same as Fig. 19 but for precipitation.

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Fig. 46: Annual cycles of precipitation for the historical time period and annual cycles of climate change signals for AR5-GCMs and CORDEX-CORE RCMs in the IPCC reference regions over the AFR-22 domain. Annual cycles of temperatures are plotted for the historical time period (1970-2000) on the left hand side of each plot. The bandwidths of the annual cycles are shown for the entire AR5-GCM ensemble (gray areas), where the black solid lines represent the ensemble-median.

CORDEX-CORE RCMs REMO and RegCM are depicted as orange lines and blue lines, respectively. As a reference, annual cycles of CRU TS4.02 (dotted red line) and ERA5 (dash-dotted red line) are drawn. Annual cycles of temperature climate change signals are plotted for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 at the end of the century (2070-2099) at the right hand side of each plot. The shaded areas represent the climate change signals of the GCMs for RCP2.6 (blue shaded areas) and RCP8.5 (red shaded areas), where the black solid lines represent the ensemble median for RCP2.6 (dashed black lines) and RCP8.5 (solid black lines). Annual cycles of climate change signals are plotted for the CORDEX-CORE RCMs REMO (orange lines) and RegCM (blue lines) for RCP2.6 (dashed lines) and RCP8.5 (solid lines).

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