Online Resource 1 Highly migratory species predictive spatial modeling (PRiSM): An analytical framework for assessment of the performance of spatial fisheries management Daniel P. Crear

Online Resource 1

Highly migratory species predictive spatial modeling (PRiSM): An analytical framework for assessment of the performance of spatial fisheries management

Daniel P. Crear¹, Tobey H. Curtis², Steve Durkee¹, and John Carlson³

1ECS Federal, in support of National Marine Fisheries Service, Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Management Division, Silver Spring, MD, USA

2National Marine Fisheries Service, Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Management Division, Gloucester, MA, USA

3National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Panama City, FL, USA Correspondence: dan.crear@noaa.gov

CONTENTS Figures S1-S12

Figs. S1-S4 Marginal mean predictions of probability of occurrence for the shortfin mako shark (Fig. S1) and leatherback sea turtle (Fig. S2) within the pelagic longline and the sandbar shark (Fig. S3) and the scalloped hammerhead shark (Fig. S4) within the bottom longline at each covariate in the best model. The black line shows the marginal means for each covariate, while the grey area (and error bars for Hook Configuration and Bait Type) represents the 95% confidence intervals generated through bootstrapping.

Lunar illumination is unitless and should be interpreted as a fraction. Hook configurations abbreviations for pelagic longline species are circle hook mixed (CM), J hook (J), larger than 16/0 circle hook

(>16/0C), mixed of circle and J hooks (M), and smaller than or equal to 16/0 circle hook (<=16/0C).

Abbreviated covariates are SST-sea surface temperature; SSH-sea surface height; SST SD-sea surface temperature standard deviation; Bottom Temperature SD-bottom temperature standard deviation

Fig. S1 Marginal mean predictions of probability of occurrence for the shortfin mako shark within the pelagic longline at each covariate in the best model.

Fig. S2 Marginal mean predictions of probability of occurrence for the leatherback sea turtle within the pelagic longline at each covariate in the best model

Fig. S3 Marginal mean predictions of probability of occurrence for the sandbar shark within the bottom longline at each covariate in the best model

Fig. S4 Marginal mean predictions of probability of occurrence for the scalloped hammerhead shark within the bottom longline at each covariate in the best model

Apr Apr Apr

Mar Mar Mar

Feb Feb Feb

Upper Bound Mean

Jan Jan Jan

Lower Bound

Dec Sep

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Jun Jun Jun

May May

May

Jul Jul Jul

Aug Aug Aug

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Oct Oct

Oct

Sep Sep Sep

Nov Nov

Nov

Dec Dec

Dec

Fig. S5 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated billfish fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) within the pelagic longline fishery domain (area in light blue) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018. Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Charleston Bump Closed Area (effective annually Feb.

through Apr.)

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Apr Apr

Apr

Mar Mar Mar

Feb Feb

Feb

Jan

Jan Jan

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Aug Aug Aug

Jul Jul

Jul

Jun Jun Jun

May May

May

Fig. S6 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated shortfin mako shark fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) within the pelagic longline fishery domain (area in light blue) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018. Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Charleston Bump Closed Area (effective annually Feb. through Apr.)

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Nov Nov Nov

Oct Oct Oct

Sep Sep

Sep

Dec Dec

Dec

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Mar Mar

Mar

Feb Feb

Feb

Jan Jan Jan

Apr Apr

Apr

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Aug Aug

Aug

Jul Jul Jul

Jun Jun Jun

May May

May

Fig. S7 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated leatherback sea turtle fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) within the pelagic longline fishery domain (area in light blue) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018. Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Charleston Bump Closed Area (effective annually Feb. through Apr.)

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Nov Nov Nov

Oct Oct

Oct

Sep Sep Sep

Dec

Dec Dec

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Feb Feb Feb

Jan Jan Jan

Apr Apr Apr

Mar Mar

Mar

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Aug Aug

Aug

Jul Jul

Jul

Jun Jun

Jun

May May

May

Fig. S8 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated sandbar shark fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018 within the bottom longline fishery domain (area in light blue). Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Mid-Atlantic Shark Closed Area (effective annually Jan. through Jul.)

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Nov Nov Nov

Oct Oct

Oct

Sep Sep

Sep

Feb Feb Feb

Mean

Lower Bound Upper Bound

Jan Jan Jan

Mar Mar

Mar

Apr Apr Apr

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Jun Jun Jun

May May May

Jul Jul

Jul

Aug Aug

Aug

Fig. S9 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated dusky shark fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018 within the bottom longline fishery domain (area in light blue). Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Mid-Atlantic Shark Closed Area (effective annually Jan. through Jul.)

Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound

Oct Oct

Oct

Sep Sep Sep

Nov Nov Nov

Dec Dec

Dec

Feb Feb

Feb

Jan Jan

Jan

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Mar Mar Mar

Apr Apr

Apr

Upper Bound Mean

Lower Bound

Jun Jun Jun

May May May

Jul Jul

Jul

Aug Aug Aug

Fig. S10 Mean, lower bound, and upper bound estimated scalloped hammerhead fishery interaction distribution outputs (occurrence probabilities) during average conditions each month from 2016-2018 within the bottom longline fishery domain (area in light blue). Maps of mean occurrence probabilities (middle column) were used for all metrics. The area in green is the Mid-Atlantic Shark Closed Area (effective annually Jan. through Jul

Upper Bound Lower Bound Mean

Oct Oct Oct

Sep Sep

Sep

Nov Nov

Nov

Dec Dec

Dec

Feb Feb Feb

Jan Jan

Jan

Mar

Mar Mar

Apr

Apr Apr

Jun Jun

Jun

May May May

Jul

Jul Jul

Aug Aug

Aug

Fig. S11 Individual species high risk area within the fishery domain (also includes U.S. EEZ) for the pelagic longline species for each month. The Charleston Bump Closed Area (effective annually from Feb.

through Apr.) is indicated by the light green outline, while the light blue outline represents the fishery domain. Species abbreviations are as follows: BILFH = billfish species group; SMA = shortfin mako shark; TLB = leatherback sea turtle

Oct Oct

Oct

Sep Sep Sep

Nov Nov Nov

Dec Dec

Dec

Feb Feb

Feb

Jan Jan Jan

Mar Mar

Mar

Apr Apr

Apr

Jun Jun

Jun

May May

May

Jul Jul Jul

Aug Aug

Aug

Fig. S12 Individual species high risk area within the fishery domain for the bottom longline species for each month. The Mid-Atlantic Shark Closed Area (effective annually Jan. through Jul.) is indicated by the light green outline, while the light blue outline represents the fishery domain. Species abbreviations are as follows: SB = sandbar shark; SHH = scalloped hammerhead; DS = dusky shark

Oct Oct Oct

Sep Sep

Sep

Nov Nov Nov

Dec Dec

Dec