Production system based global livestock sector modeling: Good news for the future
P. Havlík
1,2, M. Herrero
2, H. Valin
1, A. Mosnier
1,3, M. Obersteiner
1, E. Schmid
3, S. Frank
1,3, S. Fuss
1, A.
Notenbaert
3, U.A. Schneider
41International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
2International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya
3University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
4Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germany
METHODOLOGY
1. General Framework: GLOBIOM
• Partial Equilibrium: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy
• Production functions with high spatial resolution and calibrated by biophysical models
(e.g. RUMINANT) 2. Livestock modeling
• LPS classification including agroecology:
Arid (A), Humid (H), Temperate/highlands (T)
• New datasets developed for systems parameterization + input coefficients (feed baskets)
+ output coefficients (meat & milk productivity,
CH4 emissions, manure production…) and harmonized with FAO country level data
3. Scenario Analysis
REF0 – Livestock production systems structure fixed at 2000 values REF1 – Transition between LG and MX allowed
GLOBIOM
(Global Biosphere Management Model)
SUPPLY DEMAND
Wood
products Bioenergy Food Exogenous drivers
POP, GDP, CC, TC
PX5
Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class
PX5
Altitude class (m):0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg):0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
Soil texture class:coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
HRU =Altitude & Slope & Soil
LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS TRANSITION (Western Africa)
1966 – PASTORAL SYSTEM 2004 - MIXED SYSTEM
INTRODUCTION
• LIVESTOCK occupy 30% of global surface area
• By 2030, consumption is projected to increase by
57% for MILK and by 68% for MEAT (FAO, 2006)
SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION necessary to avoid large scale land use change
and related GHG emissions and Biodiversity loss LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS (LPS)
Sere and Steinfeld (1996) differentiate three main LPS i) Grassland based (LG)
ii) Mixed crop-livestock (MX) iii) Landless (LL)
What future LPS transitions
and their role in sustainable intensification? Source: ILRI
For additional information: www.globiom.org and havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at EPIC
G4M RUMINANT
140 120 100 80 60 40 120 100 80 60 40
observed intakes (g/kg BW0.75) predicted intakes (g/kg BW0.75)
soto pred l and m pred shem pred kaitho pred manyuchi pred Kariuki pred Euclides pred j and h pred l and f pred fall pred
SIMU 28 regions
RESULTS
1. Dairy herd expansion will mostly occur in Mixed systems.
2. In Latin America and Mid-East North Africa, slight decreases in grassland based systems (LG) likely (REF1)
while in Arid zones of SubSaharan Africa LG systems preferred 3. LPS structure adjustments (REF1) lead to
a) higher land use efficiency in the most land intensive regions
14% less deforestation and 20% less Other Natural Land loss b) Lower food prices
CONCLUSION
1. Rigid LPS structure socially and environmentally unsustainable 2. Neglecting LPS adjustments in economic modeling may lead to
overestimation of negative effects of increased livestock production 3. LPS structure adjustments are only ONE component of sustainable
intensification, other options need to be explored
Energy intake by ruminants
Milk production Bovine density
Source: GLW – FAO (2007)
Source: Herrero, Havlík, et al. (Forthcoming)
Dairy herd change 2000-2030
Mio TLUs
-20 0 20 40 60 80
-20 0 20 40 60 80
LGA LGH LGT MXA MXH MXT
REF1REF0
EUR
REF1REF0
CIS
REF1REF0
OCE
REF1
REF0
NAM
REF1REF0
LAM
REF1REF0
EAS
REF1REF0
SEA
REF1REF0
SAS
REF1REF0
MNA
REF1REF0
SSA
Land intensity of milk production in 2030
Ha per ton proteins
0 100 200 300 400
REF0 REF1
EUR CIS OCE NAM LAM EAS SEA SAS MNA SSA WLD
Price changes 2000-2030
Percent
0 20 40 60 80 100
REF0 REF1
CROPS RUMINANT
MEAT
MONOGASTRIC
MEAT MILK
Mha
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Land use change 2000-2030
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200
300 EUR
CIS OCE NAM LAM
EAS SEA SAS MNA SSA
REF0 REF1
CROPLAND
REF0 REF1
GRASSLAND
REF0 REF1
NATURAL
REF0 REF1
PLANTATION
REF0 REF1
FOREST LAND
Further reading: Havlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Baker, J.S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M.C., Schmid, E. (Forthcoming). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics: in press.
