The Tennessee Valley Authority Experience

I

THE TENNESSEE

VALLEYAUTHORITY

I EXPERIENCE

PROCEEDINGS OF THE FIRST CONFERENCE O N CASE STUDIES OF LARGE SCALE

PLANNINGPROJECTS

October 28 - ^{November 1, 1974 Volume 1}

Hans Knop, Editor CP-76-2

CP-76-E Volume 1

THE TENNESSEE

VALLEY AUTHORITY

PROCEEDINOS OF THE FIRST CONFERENCE ON CASE STUDIES OF LARGE SCALE

PLANNING PROJECTS

October 28 - Nwember 'I, 'I974 Hens Knop, Editor

Views expressed herein are those of the contributors and not neces- sarily those of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

The Institute assumes full responsibility for minor editorial changes, and trusts that these modifications have not abused the sense of the writers' ideas.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2361 Laxenburg, Austria

PREFACE TO THE TVA CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS Hans Knop

The c h o i c e o f t h e T e n n e s s e e V a l l e y A u t h o r i t y a s t h e s u b j e c t f o r t h e f i r s t IIASA C o n f e r e n c e o n t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f l a r g e - s c a l e p l a n n i n g p r o j e c t s may a p p e a r t o b e somewhat s u r p r i s i n g . The TVA h a s b e e n c o n t r o l l i n g r i v e r s a n d g e n e r a t i n g e l e c t r i c power o v e r a v a s t a r e a o f t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n U n i t e d S t a t e s f o r n e a r l y

f o r t y y e a r s . S o much h a s b e e n w r i t t e n a b o u t t h e TVA t h a t o n e m i g h t s u p p o s e t h e r e was l i t t l e l e f t t o d i s c u s s .

As i t t u r n e d o u t , h o w e v e r , t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t h e TVA w a s a n i d e a l s u b j e c t f o r s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s , o n e a s p e c t t h a t h a s r e c e i v e d r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n . A s P r o j e c t L e a d e r o f t h e P l a n n i n g a n d Management i n L a r g e O r g a n i z a t i o n s Group, I was p l e a s e d w i t h t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e TVA r a t h e r t h a n some s i m i l a r l a r g e o r g a n i - z a t i o n r e c e n t l y c o m p l e t e d o r i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s t a g e . I t i s u s u a l l y d i f f i c u l t t o g e t enough a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t a new o r g a n i z a t i o n . F o r o n e t h i n g , i t i s l i k e l y t o b e i n a s t a t e o f

f l u x : w h a t was t r u e y e s t e r d a y may b e n o l o n g e r t r u e tomorrow.

F u r t h e r m o r e , t o d i s c u s s matters f u l l y a n d f r a n k l y f o r f e a r t h e y may r e v e a l s e c r e t s o r e x p o s e t h e m s e l v e s t o c r i t i c i s m f o r some a s p e c t s t h a t h a v e n o t b e e n t h o r o u g h l y worked o u t .

A s t h e r e a d e r r e v i e w s t h e p r o c e e d i n g s o f t h i s C o n f e r e n c e , h e w i l l f i n d t h a t t h e TVA was i n d e e d c a n d i d i n i t s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the m e t h o d s a n d a c t i v i t i e s b e i n g p u r s u e d , a n d was a l s o e n t i r e l y w i l l i n g t o d i s c u s s i t s w e a k n e s s e s a n d s h o r t c o m i n g s .

W e f o u n d t h e TVA t o b e a dynamic o r g a n i z a t i o n , r e s p o n s i v e t o c h a n g e w h i l e s t i l l m a i n t a i n i n g i t s b a s i c p h i l o s o p h y o f i m p r o v i n g t h e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e p e o p l e o f t h e r e g i o n t h r o u g h a p r o g r a m o f i n t e g r a t e d r e g i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t . The t a s k h a s n o t y e t b e e n f u l l y c o m p l e t e d , b u t t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e l a s t f o r t y y e a r s r e p r e s e n t s a s i g n i f i c a n t a c h i e v e m e n t f o r t h e TVA.

The p r e s e n t two volumes mark t h e f i r s t c a s e s t u d y o f l a r g e - s c a l e p l a n n i n g p r o j e c t s . T h i s work w i l l b e f o l l o w e d u p b y a s i m i l a r C o n f e r e n c e d e a l i n g w i t h t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k E x p e r i e n c e i n t h e S i b e r i a n R e g i o n o f t h e S o v i e t Union, t h e L u b l i n Development P r o j e c t o f P o l a n d , t h e S h i n k a n s u n Program i n J a p a n , a n d o t h e r p r o j e c t s a s t h e y become i d e n t i f i e d . I t i s i n t e n d e d t h a t

c o m p a r i s o n s a n d g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s c a n b e made w h i c h would a i d t h e N a t i o n a l Member O r g a n i z a t i o n s o f IIASA a n d t h e s c i e n t i f i c w o r l d i n g e n e r a l i n d e v e l o p i n g e f f e c t i v e management t e c h n i q u e s f o r s i m i l a r c a s e s .

The TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n s a r e p r i n t e d i n t h e form t h e y were a c t u a l l y p r e p a r e d i n . IIASA h a s n o t a t t e m p t e d t o e d i t them, a n d t h e y h a v e b e e n p u b l i s h e d h e r e a s r e c e i v e d from t h e TVA. T h i s p r o c e d u r e h a s r e s u l t e d i n v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e q u a l i t y o f p r i n t a n d t y p e . We s i n c e r e l y a p o l o g i z e f o r t h i s i n c o n v e n i e n c e a n d h o p e t h a t t h i s d o e s n o t p r e s e n t a n y p r o b l e m s .

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

AUSTRIA

Academy of Science Dieter BOEKEMANN

Institut fuer Stadt- und Regional- planung der Technischen Hochschule Wien

Karlplatz

12

1040

Vienna

Ewald BRUNNER

Interdisziplinaeres Institut fuer Raumordnung

Hoschschule fuer Welthandel Hasenauerstrasse

4 2 / 8

1190

Vienna

A. KOHLBACHER

Office of the Chancellor Buero fuer Raumplanung, Section V

Hohenstaufengasse 3

1010

Vienna

Uwe SCHUBERT

Interdisziplinaeres Institut fuer Raumordnung

Hochscule fuer Welthandel Hasenauerstrasse

42/8

1190

Vienna

Annemarie STARKE address as above Walter STOEHR address as above Helmut WINTERSBERGER Office of the Chancellor Buero fuer Raumplanung, Section V

Hohenstaufengasse 3

1 0 1 0

Vienna

Alan LABOWITZ

Legal Advisor to IAEA Blutgasse 3

1 0 1 0

Vienna

George A. MORGAN

Hackofergasse

1 8 1 1 9 0

Vienna

AUSTRIA (cont 'd)

BRAZIL

Dwight PORTER

US Mission to the IAEA Schmidgasse

1 4

1 0 8 0

Vienna

Y.

CHO UNIDO

Industrial Programming Section of the Industrial Policies and Programming Division

POB

8 3 7 1 0 1 1

Vienna Karl HOENIGMAN

Verbundgesellschaft- Oesterreichische

Elektrizitaetswirtschafts A.G.

Postfach

6 7

Am Hof

6 7

1 0 1 1

Vienna Rurik KRYMM

IAEA Division of Nuclear Power Kaertner Ring

1 1

1 0 1 0

Vienna T. J. ROBERTS address as above

Alfredo Melo SOUZA-FREITAS Ministerio do Interior Brazilia

Jack SCHECHETMAN FINEP

Av. Pres. Vargas,

4 8 2

Rio de Janeiro

BULGARIA

National Centre for Cybernetics

and Computer Techniques Blagoj UZUNOV

c/o The National Centre for

Cybernetics and Computer Techniques Slavjanska

8

Sofia

Lubomir DACHEV (interpreter) address as above

vi

CANADA

C a n a d i a n C o m m i t t e e

f o r t h e I I A S A A . R . DOBELL

D e p u t y S e c r e t a r y P l a n n i n g B r a n c h

T r e a s u r y B o a r d S e c r e t a r i a t 1 6 0 E l g i n S t r e e t

O t t o w a , O n t a r i o K 1 5 OR5 R a n j i t KUMAR

D i r e c t o r e

C e n t r e f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r o g r a m s S e n e c a C o l l e g e of A p p l i e d A r t s and T e c h n o l o g y

1 7 5 0 F i n c h A v e . E a s t

W i l l o w d a l e , O n t a r i o M2N 5 T 7 T

.

A. NORDSTROM

B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a H y d r o a n d P o w e r A u t h o r i t y

9 7 0 B u r r a d S t r e e t V a n c o u v e r

,

B. C

.

C . E . ZWICKER, C h i e f

E c o n o m i c s S t u d i e s D i v i s i o n D e p a r t m e n t of E n e r g y , M i n e s a n d R e s o u r c e s

2 9 9 C a r l i n g A v e .

O t t o w a , O n t a r i o K I A OE4

CSSR

C o m m i t t e f o r t h e I I A S A of t h e C z e c h o s l o v a k

S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c P a v e 1 M A J E R S K I

D e p u t y M i n i s t e r f o r T e c h n o l o g y a n d I n v e s t m e n t

V a c l a w RENDL

O f f i c e of t h e P r i m e M i n i s t e r N i k o l a i SLOCHA

V i c e M i n i s t e r of t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e

T i b o r VASKO

C o m m i t t e e f o r t h e I I A S A of t h e C z e c h o s l o v a k S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c S l e z s k a 9 , V i n o h r a d y

P r a g u e - 2

F RG

Max Planck Society U. DAEUNERT

Bundesministerium fuer Forschung und Technologie Postfach 120 370

53 Bonn - 12 Gerhard KOLB

Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung

der Kernforschungsanlage Juelich GmbH Postfach 365

D - 517 Juelich - ¹

Dietrich KOECHER

Bundesministerium fuer Wissenschaft Guenter MARQUIS

Rheinisch-Westfaelisches Elektrizitaetswerk A.G.

Kruppstrasse 5 43 Essen Herbert RUDOLF

Bundesministerium fuer Wissenschaft STOECKER

Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung der Kernforschungsanlage Juelich GmbH

Postfach 365

D - ⁵¹⁷ - ^Juelich - ¹

ZIEGLER

Bundesministerium fuer Forschung und Technologie Postfach 120 370

53 Bonn - ¹²

FRANCE

Association Francais pour le

Developpement de 1'Analyse de ANDRE Svstemes

Asence Financiere du Bassin Seine

b or man die

10-12 Rue du Capitain Menard F-75732 Paris Cedex 15

viii

GD R

Academy of Sciences

ITALY

Italian Committee for Liason with IIASA

Willi HAETSCHER

Direktor fuer Wissenschaft

und Technik Institut fuer Energetik Leipzig

Werner KALWEIT

Vice Chairman of the Academy of Sciences of the German Democratic Republic

Berlin

Ortwin KRAUSE

Institut fuer Pflanzenernaehrung Naumurgerstrasse 98

69

Jena Hans MOTTEK

Professor mit Lehrstuhl an der Hochscule fuer Oekonomie Berlin

Guenther PREISSLER

Abteilungsleiter am Institut fuer Wasserwirtschaft

Berlin - Niederschoeneweide Helmut SCHULZ

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter im Ministerium fuer Wissenschaft und Technik

Berlin

Lothar ROEMER Interpreter

Marcello BERNARDINI Water Research Institute Via Reno 1

Rome

Francesco BRIOSCHI

Instituto Elettrotechnica ed Elettronica

Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32

Milan

ITALY (cont'd)

JAPAN

The Japan Committee for the IIASA

POLAND

Academy of Sciences

UK

The Royal Society

Benedine KNOXE I.R.S.A.

Via Reno

1

Rome

Hideo KIKKAWA

Faculty of Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo

Kuniyoshi TAKEUCHI Research Associate Faculty of Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo

A. JASKOWIAK

Vice,Minister of Agriculture Warsaw

J. OWSINSKY

Institute for Management and Control 00-818 Warsaw KRN 55

W. STANISZ

Director of Agrochem Warsaw

A. Straszak

Institute for Management and Control 00-818 Warsaw KRN

5 5

Keith NEWLANDS

British Steel Corporation (International) Ltd.

33 Grosvenor Place

London, SW1X 7JG

C h a r l e s W. HOWE N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e n c e s

P r o f e s s o r and Chairman Department o f Economics U n i v e r s i t y o f C o l o r a d o B o u l d e r , C o l o r a d o 80302 J o h n V . KRUTILLA

R e s o u r c e s f o r t h e F u t u r e , I n c . N a t u r a l E n v i r o n m e n t s Program

1755 l l a s s a c h u s e t t s Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D . C . 20036 Thomas K . McCRAW

D e p a r t m e n t o f H i s t o r y U n i v e r s i t y of Texas A u s t i n , T e x a s

S t e p h e n ROSENTHAL

U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a B e r k e l e y , C a l i f o r n i a Harvey WAGNER

McKinsey & Co.

New York, N . Y .

USSR

The Academy o f S c i e n c e s G . V . BESPACHOTNYI

Head o f a l a b o r a t o r y of t h e R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e of C y b e r n e t i c s USSR M i n i s t r y of A g r i c u l t u r e S . P. CHEBOTAREV

R e s e a r c h S c o l a r

I n s t i t u t e of C o n t r o l S c i e n c e s L e o n i d EVENKO

The Academy o f S c i e n c e s c / o S t a t e Comrnitte f o r USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s f o r S c i e n c e and Technology 11 Gorky S t r e e t

Moscow

I . M. FILIPPOVA

S e n i o r R e s e a r c h S c h o l a r

I n s t i t u t e o f A p p l i e d G e o p h y s i c s

USSR ( c o n t

'

d )

T h e Academy o f S c i e n c e s L. I . GRAMOTEJEVA

D e p u t y D i r e c t o r o f t h e I n s t i t u t e o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h o f t h e USSR S t a t e

P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e e V. J . KARELIN

D e a n o f t h e F a c u l t y o f H y d r o t e c h n i c s I n s t i t u t e o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g V. L . LISITSYN

D e p u t y C h a i r m a n o f t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e e o f t h e R u s s i a n S o v i e t

S o v i e t F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c c/o S t a t e C o m m i t t e e f o r USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s f o r S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y 1 1 G o r k y S t r e e t

Moscow

V. S . MARTYNOVSKYI Member o f t h e USSR

M i n i s t r y of A g r i c u l t u r e B o a r d G. A. MESHTCHERIAKOV

H e a d o f t h e D e p a r t m e n t

I n s t i t u t e o f M a n a g e m e n t S c i e n c e s B. Z . MILNER

H e a d o f a D e p a r t m e n t

I n s t i t u t e o f t h e USA S t u d i e s E . V. MINAJEV

D e p u t y C h i e f o f t h e

R e s e a r c h a n d T e c h n o l o g y D e p t . USSR M i n i s t r y o f E n e r g e t i c s

I . M. NAZAROV

H e a d o f a D e p a r t m e n t

I n s t i t u t e o f A p p l i e d G e o p h y s i c s G . C. PLEKHOV

C h i e f S p e c i a l i s t of t h e USSR S t a t e P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e

USSR (cont ' ^d)

Chairman of the State Planning Committee of the Latvian Soviet Socialist Federal Republic c/o State Committee for USSR Council of Ministers for Science and Technology 1 1 Gorky Street

Moscow

E. S. SHERSHNEV

Deputy Director of the Institute of the USA Studies

Committee of the Latvian Soviet c/o.State Committee for USS6 Council of Ministers for Science and Technology 1 1 Gorky Street

Moscow

V. TREITIAKOV

Head of a Laboratory

Institute of Control Sciences L. TRETIJAKOV

c/o State Committee for USSR Council of Ministers for Science and Technology 1 1 Gorky Street

Moscow

0.

V. TROFIMOV

Deputy Chief of the V/O

"Sojuzsystemprom"

USSR Ministry of Instruments Manufacturing, Automation and Control Systems

A. A. KAFYROV I.M. SEMENOVA I.V. SMIRNOV N.S. SUSLOVA E.V. VYSHINSKAIA Interpreters

xiii

TVA GROUP B. J. BOND

Assistant Director

Division of Agriculture Dev.

C. D. BUFFINGTON

Supervisor, System Dev.

6

Data Processing-Division of Forestry, Fisheries

6

Wildlife

M. I. FOSTER

Director, Division of Navigation Development

6

Regional Studies Hubert HINOTE

Supervisor, Economic Analysis Sec.

Navigation Economics Branch P. A. KRENKEL

Director, Division of Environmental Planning

E. H. LESESNE

Director, Division of Water Control Planninq

T. L. MONTGOMERY

Chief, Air Quality Branch, Division of Environmental Planning

J.

L. NEVINS

Agricultural Economist, Division of Agriculture Dev.

Lynh SEEBER

General Manager, TVA W.

0.

WUNDERLICH

Supervisor, Water Resource Mgt.

Methods Staff, Division of Water Control Planning

W. T., ZUMWALT

Director, Division of Power Systems Operations

xiv

I IASA PARTICIPANTS In Charge of Scientific

Coordination of Conference:

H. KNOP Director

Secretary to IIASA Energy Project

Handbook Project

Integrated Industrial Systems Project

Large Organizations Project

Methodology Project

H. RAIFFA A. BYKOV

AVENHAUS BAECHER R. BEATTIE P. CHARPENTIER GRENON

GROS HAEFELE MARCHETTI MURPHY NO.mHAUS SCHADE TSVETANOV VELIMIROVIC WEYSS LEVIEN

RAKHMANKULOV

0.

BERNARDINI A. CHELIUSTKIN J. HATVANY H. HUEBNER D. KELLEY I. LEFKOWITZ B. MAZEL G. SURGUCHEV

H. KNOP

v. TOKHADZE D. BELL J. BIGELOW J. CAST1 W. JEWELL T. KOOPMANS

T. KOOPMANS (Mrs)

C. WINKLER

U r b a n a n d R e g i o n a l P r o j e c t

W a t e r P r o j e c t

E c o l o g y P r o j e c t

E . BLUM R. McKINNON H. SWAIN I . BELYAEV I . GOUEVSKY Z. KACZMAREK P . KORYAVOV T . OSTROM Y. ROZANOV J . SCHMIDT E . WOOD R . HILBORN D. J O N E S H. S T E H F E S T C

.

^WALTERS

xvi

WORKING AGENDA f o r TVA C o n f e r e n c e

Monday, O c t o b e r 2 8

P l e n a r y S e s s i o n I

IIASA Co-Chairman: H . R a i f f a a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : L. S e e b e r

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : 2 . Kaczmarek c ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : Evenko

9:30

-

^{10:45 I .} " H i s t o r y o f TVA" (GM-1) 1.1 C i r c u m s t a n c e s Leading t o

t h e C r e a t i o n 1 . 2 P u r p o s e s and Goals

1 1 : O O

-

12:15 11. "What Has Been Accomplished I n t h e F i ' r s t F o r t y Y e a r s " (GM-2)

P l e n a r y S e s s i o n I1

IIASA Co-Chairman : T

.

^Koopmans

14:15

-

15:30 I . "The R e g i o n a l Economy and N a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s " (NDRS-1)

a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : M . F o s t e r

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : T . Koopmans c ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : Methodology 16:OO

-

17:30 11. "Tennessee V a l l e y R e g i o n a l

S i m u l a t i o n Model" (NDRS-2) a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : H . H i n o t e

bl IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : R . McKinnon

C ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : Swain

Tuesday, O c t o b e r 29

P l e n a r y S e s s i o n I11

IIASA Co-Chairrnan: H . Knop

9:00

-

11:15 " O r g a n i z a t i o n a l A s p e c t s o f TVA" (GM-3) a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : L . S e e b e r b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : H . Knop

c ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : R o s e n t h a l , Owinski T e c h n i c a l S e s s i o n s ( c o n c u r r e n t )

S e s s i o n I

1 1 . 3 0 - 1 3 . 0 0 A. EconomicSubmodels

IIASA Co-Chairman: A . C h e l i u s t k i n / I . L e f k o w i t z 1. " I n d u s t r i a l P l a n n i n g Models" (NDRS-3) a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : M . F o s t e r

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : 0 . B e r n a r d i n i

C ) S c i e n t i f i ~ R a p p o r t e u r : D . K e l l y 14:30

-

16:OO 2. " T r a d e and S e r v i c e P l a n n i n g

and M u l t i c o u n t y Overviews and

Techniques o f Land-Use A n a l y s i s ' ' (NDRS-4) a1 TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : H . H i n o t e

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : H. Swain c ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : H. Swain B. I n t e g r a t e d Water C o n t r o l System

IIASA Co-Chairman: Z . Kaczmarek

16:30

-

18:OO 1. "The Water C o n t r o l System and

Changes i n M u l t i p u r p o s e U s e " (WCP-1) a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : E . L e s e s n e

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : I . Gouevsky

C ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : I . Gouevsky S e s s i o n I 1 R e g i o n a l and N a t i o n a l A g r i c u l t u r e

and F e r t i l i z e r Development

TVA Co-Chairman: B. Bond

" R e g i o n a l and N a t i o n a l T r e n d s , Land and Human Resource Use and A g r i c u l t u r a l Models"

(OACD-1,2,3) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : B. Bond

IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : W . Nordhaus S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : Energy

Tuesday, October 29, (continued)

14:30 - 16:OO 2. "Transfer of Knowledge in Fertilizer Research and Development" (OACD-4,5) a) TVA presentation: B. Bond/J. Nevins b 1 IIASA discussion paper: C. Marchetti C) Scientific Rapporteur: Energy

16:30 - ^{18:OO 3.} "Fertilizer Production and

Distribution submodels" (OACD-'6) a) TVA presentation: J. Nevins

b) IIASA discussion paper: D. ~ e i l / ~ . Winkler C) Scientific Rapporteur: Methodology

Wednesday, October 30

Plenary Session IV

9:00 - ^10.30 IIASA Co-Chairman: W. Haefele

"TVA Decisions Relating to the Provision

of Ample Electrical Energy for the Region" (GM-4) a) TVA presentation: L. Seeber

b) IIASA discussion paper: W. Haefele c) Scientific Rapporteur: Energy Technical

Sessions

(concurrent)

Session I11 A. Integrated Water Control System (continued) IIASA Co-Chairman:

Z.

Kaczmarek

11:OO - ^{12:30 2.} "Water Resource Planning and Management Submodels" (WCP-2,4) a) TVA presentatidn: E. Lesesne b) IIASA discussion paper: I. Belyaev

C )

Scientific Rapporteur: Belyaev, Ostrom

14:OO - 1 5 ~ 3 0 3. "Hater Resource Planning and Management Submodels" (WCP-3,5) a) TVA presentation: W. Wunderlich b) IIASA discussion paper: P. Koryavov C) Scientific Rappor.teur: P. Koryavov

xix

Wednesday, O c t o b e r 30 ( c o n t i n u e d )

B. E n v i r o n m e n t a l P l a n n i n g and Management IIASA Co-Chairman: C. W a l t e r s

" E n v i r o n m e n t a l Q u a l i t y Management Program" (DEP-1)

TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : P . K r e n k e l IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : D . J o n e s S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : D . J o n e s S e s s i o n I V E l e c t r i c a l Energy System

-

IIASA Co-Chairman: R . Avenhaus

F

1 1 : O O

-

12:30 l! "Power System Development I n c l u d i n g Major D e c i s i o n s and T e c h n o l o g i c a l Cha ge A f f e c t i n g Development" (OP-1)

f

a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : W. Zumwalt

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : J . P . C h a r p e n t i e r

C ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : R . Avenhaus 1 4 : O O

-

15:30 2. " S h o r t - and Long-Term Load

F o r e c a s t i n g Models" (OP-2)

\

a ) T ~ A p r e s e n t a t i o n : W. Zumwalt

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : J . P . C h a r p e n t i e r

C ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : R. Avenhaus 16:OO

-

17:30 3. "Power G e n e r a t i o n A d d i t i o n s

Model" (OP-3)

a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : W . Zumwalt b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : J . Gros

C ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : R. Avenhaus Thursday, O c t o b e r 31

T e c h n i c a l S e s s i o n s ( c o n c u r r e n t )

S e s s i o n V E n v i r o n m e n t a l P l a n n i n g and Management ( c o n t i n u e d )

TVA Co-Chairman: P. Krenkel

" E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g " (DEP-2)

TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : P . Krenkel/T. Montgomery IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : H . S t e h f e s t

S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : H . S t e h f e s t

T h u r s d a y , O c t o b e r 3 1 ( c o n t i n u e d ]

" R e s e r v o i r E c o l o g y a n d W a t e r Q u a l i t y Management" (DEP-3) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : P. K r e n k e l IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : J . Schmidt S c i e n t i f i c Rappoi-teur: J . S c h m i d t

" A t m o s p h e r i c D i s p e r s i o n Model ( s ) " (DEP-4 TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : T. Montgomery

IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : A. Murphy S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : E n e r g y

" R e s e r v o i r S y s t e m O p t i m i z a t i o n M o d e l l i n g " (WCP-6)

TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : W. W u n d e r l i c h IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : E. Wood S c r e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : E. Wood S e s s i o n V I

9:OO

-

1 0 : 3 0

E n e r g y S y s t e m Submodels ( c o n t i n u e d )

IIASA Co-Chairman: W . Nordhaus

" T r a n s m i s s i o n S y s t e m P l a n n i n g Model" (OP-4 )

TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : W. Zumwalt IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : N . weyss S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : E n e r g y

"Power S y s t e m O p e r a t i o n s Model" (OP-5)

TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : W. Zumwalt IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : J . Gros S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : E n e r g y F o r e s t r y a n d M i n e r a l R e s o u r c e s

IIASA Co-Chairman: H . Swain

" F o r e s t a n d W i l d l a n d s Development and R e s o u r c e A l l o c a t i o n Submodels" (FWD-1,2 ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : C. B u f f i n g t o n

IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : C . W a l t e r s S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : C. W a l t e r s

" R e s e a r c h a n d Development i n

S u r f a c e Mining R e c l a m a t i o n " (FWD-3) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : L . S e e b e r

IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : G. B a e c h e r S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : E n e r g y

F r i d a y , November 1

P l e n a r y S e s s i o n V

IIASA Co-Chairman: H . R a i f f a

9:00

-

^10:30 "Economic F u t u r e a n d Q u a l i t y o f L i f e i n t h e Region and TVA's R o l e "

( J o b s , E n e r g y , Environment, Food and F i b e r ) (GM-5)

a ) TVA p r e s e n t a t i o n : L. S e e b e r

b ) IIASA d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r : R. L e v i e n / A . Bykov

c ) S c i e n t i f i c R a p p o r t e u r : V . Rakhmankulov P l e n a r y S e s s i o n VI

IIASA Co-Chariman: H. R a i f f a

C o n c l u s f o n s a n d c l o s i n g o f t h e C o n f e r e n c e

x x i i

WELCOMING ADDRESS TO TVA CONFERENCE

H . R a i f f a , D i r e c t o r IIASA

D i s t i n g u t s h e d g u e s t s : Welcome t o Baden. Baden i s a l o v e l y A u s t r i a n s p a , famous f o r b e i n g c l o s e t o t h e m e t r o p o l i s o f Laxen- b u r g , home o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d Systems A n a l y s i s , a b b r e v i a t e d I I A S A and pronounced "Yasah." A t a t i m e l i k e t h i s i t i s a l s o a p p r o p r i a t e t o pronounce o u r i n i t i a l s a s "Eh ah s a t ' whfch i n J a p a n e s e means "Good Morning."

T h t s C o n f e r e n c e on t h e "TVA Experience'' i s t h e f i r s t o f a s e r i e s of c o n f e r e n c e s on R e t r o s p e c t i v e Case S t u d i e s of I n t e g r a t e d P l a n n i n g P r o j e c t s . By c o n s t r u c t i v e l y examining t h e p a s t we hope t o i d e n t i f y key i s s u e s t h a t c a n h e l p p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s i n t h e p r e s e n t and i n t h e f u t u r e . T h a t p l a n n i n g i s a theme o f t h i s s e r i e s o f c o n f e r e n c e s i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g f o r IIASA. T h i s i s one s u b j e c t m a t t e r which i s c r u c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t f o r a l l s o c i e t i e s , o n e i n which b o t h s o c i a l i s t and n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s c a n l e a r n a g r e a t d e a l from each o t h e r , and one i n which i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s w i l l p l a y an i n c r e a s i n g r o l e i n t h e f u t u r e .

L e t me s a y a few words on how w e d e c i d e d on t h e TVA. I t was a b o u t a y e a r ago t h a t we d e c i d e d t o i n a u g u r a t e a s e r i e s o f confe- r e n c e s on R e t r o s p e c t i v e Case S t u d i e s o f I n t e g r a t e d P l a n n i n g P r o j e c t s and I began s e a r c h i n g f o r a s u i t a b l e i n i t i a l c a s e . I a s k e d D r . Ananichev, a s e n i o r a d m i n i s t r a t o r o f t h e USSR Committee on S c i e n c e and Technology i f h e knew a s u i t a b l e i n s t i t u t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s f o r s u c h a c a s e s t u d y . We d i s c u s s e d m a j o r US C o r p o r a t i o n s , IBM, G e n e r a l Motors, US S t e e l and so on b u t none o f t h e s e seemed s u i t a b l e f o r o u r p u r p o s e . I t was D r . Ananichev, who e n t h u s i a s t i - c a l l y s u g g e s t e d t h e TVA. I approached t h e US N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e n c e s and a s k e d t h e l i a i s o n committee t o t h i n k a b o u t t h e d e s i r a - b i l i t y o f f e a t u r i n g t h e TVA e x p e r i e n c e a n d , i f t h e y were f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e i d e a , t o sound o u t t h e TVA c h a i r m a n , M r . Aubrey Wagner and t h e G e n e r a l Manager, M r . Lynn S e e b e r . T h e i r r e s p o n s e was s o immediate and s o e n t h u s i a s t i c t h a t i t became i n f e c t i o u s , and s o h e r e we a r e t o g e t h e r i n Baden r e a d y t o s t e e p o u r s e l v e s i n t h i s

f a s c i n a t i n g c a s e s t u d y .

Our C o u n c i l Chairman, P r o f e s s o r G v i s h i a n i , Deputy M i n i s t e r o f t h e S o v i e t S t a t e Committee on S c i e n c e a n d Technology, and I d i s c u s s e d a t l e n g t h t h e p h f l o s o p h y o f t h i s s e r i e s . F i r s t o f a l l , w e wanted t o s h a r e e x p e r i e n c e s o f p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s i n s o c i a l i s t , n o n - s o c i a l i s t a n d mixed economies. S e c o n d l y , w e wanted t o u s e t h i s medium t o b r i n g t h e s c i e n t i s t and s y s t e m s a n a l y s t c l o s e r t o t h e p r a c t i t i o n e r and u s e r o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s .

x x i i i

P r o f e s s o r G v i s h i a n i and I d e c i d e d o n t h e f o r m a t o f t h i s s e r i e s . Each c o n f e r e n c e would c o n c e n t r a t e o n o n e c a s e s t u d y . P a p e r s would b e d i s t r i b u t e d i n a d v a n c e , a n d w h e r e v e r p o s s i b l e , e a c h p a p e r would h a v e two d i s c u s s a n t s : o n e d i s c u s s a n t from t h e s c i e n t i f i c s t a f f o f IIASA, t h e s e c o n d d i s c u s s a n t from a p r a c t i t i o n e r r e p r e s e n t i n g a c o n t r a s t i n g i d e o l o g i c a l v i e w p o i n t . ~ h u s i n t h i s C o n f e r e n c e we s h a l l c a l l on S o v i e t e x p e r t s , a s w e l l a s e x p e r t s from o t h e r s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s , t o d i s c u s s t h e s e p a p e r s . .The a i m i s t o e x a m i n e s i m i l - a r i t i e s a s w e l l a s d i f f e r e n c e s . I n no way, w h a t s o e v e r , i s t h i s t o b e i n t e r p r e t e d a s a c o n t e s t b e t w e e n s y s t e m s . To t h i n k s o i s t o m i s s t h e s p i r i t o f IIASA. T h e r e i s s o much t h a t w e c a n l e a r n from e a c h o t h e r . W e c a n p r o f i t b o t h from m i s t a k e s a s w e l l a s s u c c e s s e s a n d I c o n g r a t u l a t e t h e TWA A u t h o r i t i e s f o r t h e i r w i l l i n g - n e s s t o b e r e v i e w e d by s u c h a v a r i e d a n d d i s t i n g u i s h e d a u d i e n c e .

At o u r n e x t C o n f e r e n c e i n t h i s Sbries we s h a l l r e v e r s e t h e r o l e s . W e s h a l l l o o k a t an i n t e g r a t e d p l a n n i n g c a s e s t u d y o f t h e USSR a n d h a v e d i s c u s s a n t s p r i m a r i l y drawn f r o m t h e c a p i t a l i s t c o u n t r i e s . Once a g a i n t h e s p i r i t w i l l b e o n e o f l e a r n i n g from e a c h o t h e r , w h i c h i s o n e o f t h e p h i l o s o p h i c a l c o r n e r s t o n e s o f o u r IIASA e x p e r i e n c e . And i f I c a n b e a b i t immodest, I b e l i e v e t h i s s p i r i t i s w o r k i n g w e l l w i t h i n o u r I n s t i t u t e .

On b e h a l f o f IIASA, a n d I am s u r e o n b e h a l f o f t h i s a u d i e n c e I w a n t t o t h a n k M r . S e e b e r a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s f r o m t h e TVA f o r t h e i r d e d i c a t i o n t o t h i s p r o j e c t . They h a v e i n v e s t e d a g r e a t d e a l o f t i m e , o f e f f o r t , a n d o f money t o make t h i s C o n f e r e n c e p o s s i b l e . We a r e i n d e b t e d t o you a l l .

T h i s C o n f e r e n c e w i l l c o v e r a w i d e s p e c t r u m o f t o p i c s a n d i s s u e s . The a u d i e n c e h e r e i s a l s o a v e r y h e t e r o g e n e o u s o n e s o I e x p e c t t h e c o v e r a g e o f t o p i c s c a n n o t p l e a s e e a c h o n e o f you.

I n some c a s e s t h e r e w i l l b e t o o much d e t a i l a n d i n o t h e r s n o t e n o u g h , d e p e n d i n g on t h e v i e w p o i n t o f t h e l i s t e n e r . However, we h a v e a week t o d i s c u s s t h e s e i s s u e s - - b o t h i n f o r m a l p l e n a r y s e s s i o n s a n d i n t e c h n i c a l s e s s i o n s , a n d a t l u n c h , o v e r c o c k t a i l s , a t H e u r i g e r s , a n d i n s t r o l l s t h r o u g h t h e Baden c o u n t r y s i d e .

Now many o f t h e q u e s t i o n s you p o s e may n o t b e a n s w e r e d i n d e p t h . A f t e r a l l , we h a v e w i t h u s t o d a y j u s t a few o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r s a n d s t a f f members o f t h e TVA. B u t we s h o u l d n o t l o o k a t t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t h i s week a s t h e f i n a l i n v o l v e m e n t

o f IIASA w i t h t h e TVA. W e hope t h a t a t t h e e n d o f t h i s C o n f e r e n c e , IIASA r e p r e s e n a t i v e s w i l l d i s c u s s w i t h M r . S e e b e r a n d h i s s t a f f , ways o f c o n t i n u i n g o u r j o i n t i n t e r e s t s . Sometime a f t e r t h e C o n f e r e n c e we w i l l b r i n g o u t a s e t o f P r o c e e d i n g s , w h i c h w i l l i n c l u d e t h e p a p e r s p r e s e n t e d h e r e , t h e r e m a r k s o f d i s c u s s a n t s , a n d a b b r e v i a t e d v e r s i o n o f t h e o p e n d e b a t e , a n d , i n a d d i t i o n , s e l e c t e d w r i t t e n c o n t r i b u t i o n s by o u r p a r t i c i p a n t s a n d p o s t - C o n f e r e n c e r e f l e c t i o n s by members o f t h e TVA who c o u l d n o t b e h e r e t o d a y . P e r h a p s a s e l e c t e d g r o u p o f IIASA r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s may w i s h t o p a y a v i s i t t o t h e TVA. S o , w e s h o u l d v i e w t h i s w e e k ' s C o n f e r e n c e a s p a r t o f p o t e n t i a l l y more e x t e n s i v e c o l l a b - o r a t i o n between IIASA and TVA.

x x i v

Now a word t o our d i s c u s s a n t s and a u d i e n c e . M r . S e e b e r a s s u r e s me t h a t he welcomes t h e o p e n i n g of a d i a l o g u e and t h a t we s h o u l d f e e l f r e e t o c r i t i c i z e . I hope t h a t o u r c r i t i c i s m s w i l l b e c o n s t r u c t i v e i n t o n e . I a s k you a l s o t o keep i n mind t h a t t h e s e p a p e r s were n o t p r e p a r e d by a c a d e m i c s w r i t i n g f o r s c h o l a r l y j o u r n a l s b u t by members o f a n o n g o i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n w i t h day-to-day o p e r a t i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . Our g u e s t s have worked under s e v e r e t i m e p r e s s u r e and h a v e f u l f i l l e d t h e i r o b l i g a t i o n s a d m i r a b l y and on t i m e . The p r e p a r e d p a p e r s have been d i s t r i b u t e d w i d e l y and t r a n s l a t e d i n t o s e v e r a l l a n g u a g e s . Having t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f what happens a t o t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e s , I am v e r y i m p r e s s e d .

L e t me t a k e t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y a l s o t o e x p r e s s my t h a n k s t o t h e US Academy of S c i e n c e s , which h a s worked d i l i g e n t l y a s a l i a i s o n between IIASA and t h e TVA. M r . H i n o t e , o f t h e TVA, was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e a c t i v i t i e s on t h e TVA s i d e , and P r o f e s s o r Knop, from t h e German Democratic R e p u b l i c and l e a d e r o f o u r L a r g e O r g a n i z a t i o n s P r o j e c t was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g a c t i v i t i e s on IIASA's s i d e .

I would l i k e t o mention j u s t a few names o f o u r d i s t i n g u i s h e d g u e s t s t o d a y . We a r e honored by t h e p r e s e n c e o f Ambassador John P. Humes, t h e US Ambassador t o t h e R e p u b l i c o f A u s t r i a , o f

Ambassador P o r t e r from t h e US M i s s i o n t o t h e IAEA, o f D r . L i s i t s y n Deputy Chairman of t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g Committee o f t h e R u s s i a n S o v i e t S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c , o f D r . &man, Chairman o f t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g Committee o f t h e L a t v i a n S o v i e t S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c , o f D r . D o b e l l o f t h e Canadian T r e a s u r y Board S e c r e t a r i a t . From t h e Czechoslovak S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c we h a v e Diploma E n g i n e e e r Pave1 M e j e r s k i , Deputy M i n i s t e r o f Technology and I n v e s t m e n t , D r . Rend1 from t h e O f f i c e o f t h e Prime M i n i s t e r , D r . N i k o l a i S l o c h a , V i c e M i n i s t e r , o f t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g Committee and my d e a r f r i e n d D r . Vasko, o u r C o u n c i l Member from C z e c h o s l o v a k i a . We a l s o have w i t h u s t o d a y M r . J a s k o w i a k , t h e V i c e M i n i s t e r o f A g r i c u l t u r e o f P o l a n d , and we a r e d e l i g h t e d t o h a v e o u r C o u n c i l Member from Poland

P r o f . Kulikowski and P r o f . S t r a s z a k , D i r e c t o r o f t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r Management and C o n t r o l . A l s o h e r e t o d a y i s E n g i n e e r Uzanov, from t h e N a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r C y b e r n e t i c s and Computer Techniques i n B u l g a r i a and P r o f . D r . K a l w e i t , t h e V i c e Chariman o f t h e Academy o f S c i e n c e s o f t h e GDR.

I n c o n c l u s i o n , I would l i k e t o r e a d t o you a t e l e x I have j u s t r e c e i v e d from D r . P h i l i p H a n d l e r , P r e s i d e n t of t h e Academy o f S c i e n c e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s :

A t t e n t i o n : D i r e c t o r Howard R a i f f a

For more t h a n f o u r d e c a d e s , The T e n n e s s e e V a l l e y A u t h o r i t y h a s been a u n i q u e n a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h c e n t e r a s w e l l a s an e n t e r - p r i s e f o r p l a n n i n g and g u i d i n g t h e development o f t h e e n t i r e r e g i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . Through t h i s p e r i o d , t h e TVA h a s been i n t h e f o r e f r o n t o f d e v e l o p i n g a s y s t e m s a p p r o a c h t o r e s e a r c h development, s e r v i n g a s a n a t i o n a l c e n t e r f o r c r e a t i n g t e c h n i q u e s i n resource-management, w a t e r r e s o u r c e development, f l o o d p r e v e n t i o n , c o n s e r v a t i o n , e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , and b r o a d e n e r g y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .

The TVA C o n f e r e n c e s h o u l d p r o v i d e many i n s i g h t s v a l u a b l e t o IIASA a n d t h o s e o f i t s r e l a t e d p r o j e c t s w h i c h a r e i n r e l a t i v e l y e a r l y s t a g e s o f d e v e l o p m e n t . At t h e same t i m e , t h e u n i q u e i n t e r a c t i o n a t IIASA w i t h b o t h y o u r c o n f e r e n c e g u e s t s a n d r e s i d e n t s c i e n t i s t s o f f e r s t h e p o s i t i v e b e n e f i t o f d y n a m i c i n t e r c h a n g e f o r t h e TVA. TVA's n o t e w o r t h y commitment t o t h e IIASA C o n f e r e n c e r e f l e c t s t h e s t r o n g s u p p o r t f o r y o u r work i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

On b e h a l f o f t h e N a t i o n a l Academy of S c i e n c e s , p l e a s e e x t e n d o u r b e s t w i s h e s t o y o u r p a r t i c i p a n t s f o r a m o s t s u c c e s s f u l week a t IIASA a n d o u r c o n g r a t u l a t i o n s a s IIASA e m b a r k s upon i t s t h i r d y e a r .

S i n c e r e l y , P h i l i p H a n d l e r P r e s i d e n t

N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e n c e s , W a s h i n g t o n D .C.

79137 IIASA a

xxv i

VOLUME I TABLE OF CONTENTS

P a g e

PREFACE iii

L i s t o f P a r t i c i p a n t s v

C o n f e r e n c e Agenda x v i i

Welcoming A d d r e s s t o t h e TVA C o n f e r e n c e

H . R a i f f a x x i i i

PART 1 HISTORY AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE TVA 1

H i s t o r y o f t h e TVA

L. S e e b e r . . .

...

³

What h a s Been A c c o m p l i s h e d i n t h e F i r s t F o r t y Y e a r s Y e a r s

...

L. S e e b e r . . . 27 IIASA D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

Z . Kaczmarek...

...

³⁹

TVA Comments o n D i s c u s s i o n by Z . Kaczmarek

...

⁴⁰

Summary o f D i s c u s s i o n T o p i c s

...

⁴²

PART 2 ECONOMIC SUBMODELS OF THE TVA 4 3

The R e g i o n a l Economy and N a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s

M. F o s t e r . . . 45 IIASA D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

T. Koopmans

...

⁶⁹

TVA R e s p o n s e

...

⁷³

TVA Economic S i m u l a t i o n Model

...

H. H i n o t e . . . 79

IIASA D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

R. Mackinnon...

...

^{1 3 2}

TVA Comments on D i s c u s s i o n b y R. M a c k i n n o n . . . 136 C o m p u t e r i s e d P l a n t L o c a t i o n Models

M. F o s t e r . . .

...

¹³⁹

IIASA D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

0. B e r n a r d i n i . . .

...

1 9 3 TVA Comments on D i s c u s s i o n by 0. B e r n a r d i n i . . . 206 S u b r e g i o n a l o v e r v i e w s t u d i e s

H. H i n o t e . . .

...

²⁰⁹

IIASA D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

H . Swain.

...

²²³

TVA Comments o n S u b r e g i o n a l Overview S t u d i e s .

....

²²⁶

SUIImary o f D i s c u s s i o n T o p i c s

...

²³⁰

xxv i i

P a g e PART 3 ORGANIZATIONAL A S P E C T S O F THE TVA

O r g a n i z a t i o n a l A s p e c t s of t h e TVA

L . S e e b e r . . .

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

H. K n o p

...

TVA C o m m e n t s on D i s c u s s i o n by H. K n o p

...

S u m m a r y of D i s c u s s i o n T o p i c s

...

PART 4 E L E C T R I C A L ENERGY SYSTEM O F THE TVA

D e c i s i o n s R e l a t i n g t o t h e P r o v i s i o n of A m p l e E l e c t r i c a l E n e r g y f o r t h e T e n n e s s e e V a l l e y R e g i o n

L . Seeber

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

W. H a e f e l e . . .

...

TVA C o m m e n t s on D i s c u s s i o n by W. H a e f e l e . . . T h e TVA P o w e r S y s t e m T o d a y

W. Z u m w a l t . . .

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

J . - P . C h a r p e n t i e r . .

...

TVA R e s p o n s e t o D i s c u s s i o n by J . - P . C h a r p e n t i e r . . S h o r t and L o n g - t e r m L o a d F o r e c a s t i n g M o d e l s

W. Z u m w a l t

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

J . - P . C h a r p e n t i e r

...

TVA R e s p o n s e t o Q u e s t i o n s by J . - P . C h a r p e n t i e r

...

P o w e r G e n e r a t i o n A d d i t i n s M o d e l

W. Z u m w a l t . .

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

J . G r o s . . .

...

TVA R e s p o n s e t o D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r by J . G r o s . . . .

..

T h e E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n S y s t e m P l a n n i n g M o d e l W. Z u m w a l t . . .

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

N. W e y s s

...

TVA C o m m e n t s on D i s c u s s i o n by N. W e y s s

...

C o m p u t e r A p p l i c a t i o n s t o A c h i e v e O p t i m u m E c o n o m i c L o a d i n g of G e n e r a t i n g P l a n t s

W. Z u m w a l t .

...

I I A S A D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

J . G r o s . . .

...

TVA C o m m e n t s on D i s c u s s i o n by J . G r o s . . .

...

S u m m a r y of D i s c u s s i o n T o p i c s

...

Page PART 5 INTEGRATED WATER CONTROL SYSTEM OF THE TVA 425

The Water Control System and Changes in Multi-purpose Use

E. Lesesne... 427 IIASA Discussion Paper

I. Gouevsky ... ⁴⁴⁷

TVA Comments on Discussion by I. Gouevsky ... ⁴⁵⁰

Development of a Comprehensive TVA Water Resource Management Program

W. Wunderlich... ... ⁴⁵³

IIASA Discussion Paper

E. Wood... ... ⁵³⁶

TVA Comments on Discussion by E. Wood... ... ⁵⁴¹

Management of Integrated Water Control System ...

E. Lesesne... 545 Watershed Streamflow Quality and Quantity

Modelling in TVA

E. Lesesne... 589 IIASA Discussion Paper

I. Belyaev ... ⁶¹⁵

TVA Comments on Discussion by I. Belyaev ... ⁶¹⁹

A Mathematical Model for Transient Open Channel Flow: A Water Resource Planning and Management Tool

W. Wunderlich... ... ⁶²⁷

Heat Transpost Models for Rivers and Reservoirs

W. Wunderlich... ... ⁶⁶⁷

IIASA Discussion Paper

P. Koryavov ... ⁷¹⁴

TVA Comments on Discussion by T. Koryavov ... ⁷¹⁵

Summary of Discbssion Topics ... ⁷¹⁹

xxvix

HISTORY AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE TVA

Page HISTORY OF THE TVA

...

³

WHAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED IN THE FIRST FORTY YEARS

...

²⁷

IIASA DISCUSSION PAPER

...

³⁹

TVA COMMENTS

...

⁴⁰

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION TOPICS

...

⁴²

HISTORY OF TYA

The Teiinessee V a l l e y A u t h o r i t y was e s t a b l i s h e d b y Act o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i'on,-rt>::: i n

1933

t o h c l p t h e p e o p l e o f a r e g i o n put n a t u r a l r e ; ~ ) u r c . e s t o work

Ln ~ w ~ > ~ . c u m i ~ l t : d e e p - r w t e d p r o b l e n ~ s of p o v e r t y and i n a d e q u a t e o p p o r t u n i t y . T l ~ e major p r i n c i p l e s upon which TVA was b a s e d had l o n g been l u ~ o w r ~ , b u t t h e u n i q u e n e s s of

TVA

l a y i y ' i n i t s m i s s i o n t o d e v e l o p t h e r e g i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s

&s s u n i f i e d program, r a t h e r t h a n a s s e p a r a t e and competing e n t i t i e s . For t h e f i r s t t m e , w d t e r , l a n d , m i n e r a l s , and f o r e s t s were s e e n as one i n t e r r e l a t e d s e t o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s f u r improving t h e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d of a r e g i o n ' s people.

I n o n l y f o u r s h o r t decades, t h i s s t r i k i n g c o n c e p t of u n i f i e d r e s o u r c e developnlent h a s l e f t an i n d e l i b l e mark on t h e Tennessee V a l l e y r e g i o n and i t s p e o p l e . From a p r e d o m i n a n t l y a g r i c u l t u r a l r e g i o n , t h e V a l l e y h a s become a p r e d o m i n a n t l y commercial and n a n u f a c t u r i n g r e g i o n . From a l a n d pocked w i t h e r o s i o n where r i v e r s c o n s t a n t l y t h r e a t e n e d d e s t r u c t i o n by f l o o d a l o n g t h e i r banks, it has become a r e g i o n of g r e e n p a s t u r e s , expanding f o r e s t s , and b e a u t i f u l l a k e s . I t s people have new o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r a s e c u r e and p r o -

d u c t i v e f u t u r e .

Many of t h e s e changes were t a k i n g p l a c e e l s e w h e r e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , b u t none were a s pronounced a s i n t h e Tennessee V a l l e y . Many f a c t o r s o f n a t i o n a l scope had t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on t h e r e g i o n . None, however, was more profound t h a n t h e r e v i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e r e g i o n ' s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a n d i t s e f f e c t on t h e l i f e - s t y l e o f t h e p e o p l e .

D e s c r i p t i o n of t h e Tennessee Valley Region

The Tennessee Valley r e g i o n i s l o c a t e d i n t h e h e a r t l a n d of t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n United S t . ~ t e s . I n c l u d i n g t h e drainage a r e a of t h e Tennessee River and a d j a c e n t t c r r i t c ~ . y served by Llie WA power system, it i s a n a r e a of 2,000 square miles-- n e a r l y t h r e e t ~ m e s t h e s i z e of A u s t r i a . The 1970 p o p u l a t i o n of t h i s a r e a was about

6.7

111il1ion.

The drainage b a s i n of t h e Tennessee River i s a landlocked a r e a of n e a r l y 41,001' square m i l e s and erlcompasses p o r t i o n s of seven s t a t r s - - V i r g i n i a , North C a r o l i n a , Geort:ia, Tennessee, Alabama, M i s s i s s i p p i , and Kentucky. It i s a watershed uf c o n t r a s t s . Rugged mountains and green f o r e s t s dominate t h e e a s t e r n p o r t i o n of t h e Valley; r o l l i n g h i l l s , open f i e l d s , and woodlands l i e t o t h e west.

I n terms of flow, t h e Tennessee i s t h e f i f t h l a r g e s t r i v e r i n t h e United S t a t e s . Water from i t s headwaters i n t h e mountains of western V i r g i n i a and North C a r u l i n a , e a s t e r n Tennessee, and n o r t h e r n Georgia flows over 700 winding m i l e s t o t h e mcuth of t h e r i v e r a t Paducah, Kentucky, where t h e Tennessee e m p t i e s i n t o t h e Ohio River.

O r i g i n s of TVA

The TVA i d e a was t h e l o g i c a l outcome of a long ferment of American t h i n k i n g about t h e N a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s and how t o conserve and develop them. Three hundred y e a r s of American s e t t l e m e n t had been w a s t e f u l ; r e s o u r c e s were regarded a s p r a c t i c a l l y i n e x h a u s t i b l e .

During t h e e a r l y 1 9 0 0 ' s G i f f o r d P i n c h o t , Chief U. S. F o r e s t e r , cane up with a c a p s u l e i d e a t h a t was expressed p r a c t i c a l l y i n t h e TVA Act many y e a r s l a t e r . Pinchot considered t h a t h i s own s p e c i a l t y , f o r e s t r y , was i n s e p a r a b l y r e l a t e d t o o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s - - s t r e a m s and i n l a n d n a v i c a t i o n , waterpower

and f l o o d c o n t r o l . ::oi.l a n d e r o s i o n , m i n e r a l s , S i s h and < m e . He concluded t h a t c h e st3 gwrc riot : : r p a ~ . : ~ l . e p , . ~ > l , l e ~ n s , I>ut i n s t e a d "made up t 1 1 ~ ot~c g r e a t c e n t r a l p:.:5i?lil (7f t h r 11se ( > I ' t h e ~ , : ~ r t h for. t l ~ e good o f man."

The tliinlti.r~p ut' Pincllot a n d o t h e r s s t i m u l a t e d t h e c r e a t i o n i n 15'08 o f 8

Na: ic-nnl Conse"\ a t l o n Commission r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e s t a t e s , t h e F e d e r a l Government, anil pl.ivatc* in:.cl.ect::. Irl a n e x h a u s t i v e r e p o r t containin!: a n i n v e n t o r y o f t h e r e s o l i r c e a bf t h e c o u n t r y , t h e commission p o i n t e d t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e l a n d and w a t e r and t o t h e need f o r u n i f i e d development.

The cc11lcepts a n d p r i n c i p l e s w r i t t e n i n t o t h e TVA Act s p r a n g from t h e s e b e p i n n i n g s . They d i d n o t come from a n y n e a t , p r e c o n c e i v e d s e t o f t h e o r i e s a b u l ~ t p o l i t i c s o r government; t h e y e v o l v e d from t h e r e f l e c t i v e o b s e r v a t i o n s , s t u d i e s , a n d e x p e r i e n c e s o f s c i e n t i s t s a n d t h e informed c o n c e r n o f laymen. They f o u r ~ d e x p r e s s i o n n o t o n l y i n t h e r e p o r t s o f t h e N a t i o n a l C o n s e r v a t i o n Commission, b u t i n c o r ~ g r e s s i o n a l a c t s and P r e s i d e n t i a l messages.

The Tennessee R i v e r was c o n s i d e r e d e a r l y i n t h e t r e n d t o w a r d development of t h e c o u r l t r y ' s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . I n 1899, Congress a u t h o r i z e d t h e p r i v a t e development of a power s i t e on t h e r i v e r a t Muscle S h o a l s i n n o r t h w e s t e r n Alabama, b u t development was d e l a y e d w h i l e t h e Government and p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s wrangled o v e r who s h o u l d r e a l i z e t h e b e n e f i t s o f s u c h a p r o j e c t .

Two n i t r a t e m u n i t i o n s p l a n t s a n d Wilson Dam were e v e n t u a l l y c o n s t r u c t e d at Muscle S h o a l s d u r i n g World War I. h e d i a t e l y a f t e r t h e end o f t h e war, weat

p r e s s u r e was b r o u g h t upon t h e Congress t o d i s p o s e o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s t o p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s , e i t h e r b y s a l e o r l e a s e .

A f f r o n t e d b y t h e a t t e m p t s o f p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s t o 1:et t h e Government p r o p e r t y f o r l i t t l e o r n o t h i n g , S e n a t o r George N o r r i s o f Nebraska proposed i n a number o f b i l l s t h a t t h e Muscle S h o a l s p r o p e r t i e s b e o p e r a t e d p u b l i c l - , ~ . A 3

t h e p r o p o s a l s f o r pl..iv;ute l e a s e o r p r ~ r c h a s e were r e j e c t e l l . thc. Norrir, b i l l s gained increanlny: : : ~ ~ p p o r t .

By 1.033 t h e c l i m a t e o f t h e cour1tr.y had changed from t h e p r o s p e r t y of t h e 1 9 2 0 ' s . The United S t a t e s was locked i n t h e g r i p of a g r e a t economic d e p r e s s i o n , a n d t h e V a l l e y was one of t h e n a t i o n ' s h a r d e s t - h i t r e g i o n s . Unemployn~ent was t h e r u l e r a t h e r t h a n t h e e x c e p t i o n . h r m s were s c a r r e d by e r o s i o n . The once g r e a t v i r g i n hardwood s t a n d s i n t h e f o r e s t s were n e a r l y gone. Succeeding y e a r s had brought d e s t r u - t i v e f l o o d s o f i n c r e a s i n g v i o l e n c e , b u t e f f o r t s t o c o n t a i n them were l i m i t e d mainly t o t h e banks of s t r e a m s , with l i t t l e e f f o r t aimed a t c o n t r o l . The power t h a t might have been claimed from t h e f a l l i n g w a t e r s s t i l l r a n unused t o t h e s e a .

I n t h i s s e t t i n ; . ; . Congress passed a N o r r i s b i l l t o c r e a t e a Tennessee V a l l e y A u t h o r i t y i n May 11'33. The

TVA

was a n i n v e n t i o n i n modern government, t h e c r e a t i o r ~ o f an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e agency which would have t h e b r o a d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h e v a r i o u s r e s o u r c e s a s p a r t s o f a s i n g l e o v e r a l l problem.

The knowledge and technology f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h e s e p a r a t e problems of r e s o u r c e development were a l r e a d y i n t h e hands of t h e f o r e s t e r s , t h e s o i l s c i e n t i s t s , t h e c h e m i s t s , and t h e e n g i n e e r s , TVA's job was t o s e t them a l l working t o g e t h e r . The V a l l e y i n

1033

Farming was man's c h i e f work i n t h e Tennessee V a l l e y when TVA was e s t a b l i s h e d . Of a r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n o f some 3 m i l l i o n people, o v e r o n e - h a l f l i v e d on farms, and o f t h i s group, o n e - h a l f l i v e d on and farmed l a n d t h e y d i d n o t own. S i x o f e v e r y 10 workers were employed on farms a t a n a v e r a g e wage of $190 a y e a r , while t h e per c a p i t a income o f t h e V a l l e y r e g i o n a s a whole was $168, o n l y 45 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e .

Farm income came mainly from corn and c o t t o n and tobacco--row c r o p s t h a t l e f t t h e t o p s o i l exposed t o t h e b e a t i n g r a i n s that f a l l i n w i n t e r on uncr,vered

l a n d . Of a t o t a l ot' .lh m i l l i o n a c r e : ; of open lartd, about h n l f was ibandoned o r s e v e r e l y damaged by e r o s i ~ m . On t h e l a n d which d i d p r o v i d e c-rops, p r o d u c t i v i t y was low.

M a n u f a c t u r i n g employr,ent i n 1933 made up o n l y 12 p e r c e n t of t h e l a b o r f o r c e , as compared w i t h ahnost 2? p e r c e n t f o r t h e Nation. Many of t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g .job:: were i n 1:'d-pay irldu.:trie::. A r~rr,jor rc ~ s t r : i i r l t on ma~lul'ac:turin~: i n t h e r e g i o n was t h e ~ ' c r i l t t u d f ' ~ . e i g l l t r3ste : ; t r u c t u r e . R a t e s on (:oods mar~ufactured i n t l l e L:c)utlr were about IhO pc~.cerlt h i g h r r thlrri t h o s e on good:; marlufact~ired n o r t h o!' t h e Oh-Lu R i v e r , a l t h o u f ~ h r a i l r o a d u n i t c o s t s were a b o u t t h e same. Conversely, f r e i c : h t ~ r t t e s or, raw m a t e r ' i u i s were t'uvorable, l e a d i n g t o t h e e x p o r t a t i o n of r a w ~ r ~ r r t e ~ - i ; r i s J'rom t. he re:: ion t o be p ~ . o ~ . e s s e d e l s e w h e r e .

While, inccmle was low. t h e V a l l e y b i r t h r a t e was h i g h . - - c ~ n e - t h i r d above t h e n a t i o r i a l ~ . c p r o d u c t iori r a t e . There were 114 dependents (],er::!,n; under 20 o r ^cj ver

65)

f o r e v e r y LOO p r o d u c e r s , as a g a i n s t a n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e o f 90. The l a c k oi' n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l j o b s and t h e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r t h o s e which e x i s t e d , t h e c o n d i t i o n of t h e l a n d , a n d t h e low s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g c r e a t e d a t i d e o f m i g r a t i o n from t h e r e c i o n t o t h e n o r t h c r n i n d u s t r i a l c e n t e r s .

The s c a r s on t i l e Land a l s o e x i s t e d i n t h e woodlands. Heavy t i m b e r h a r v e s t s , uncheslred f o r e s t f i r e s , and g e n e r a l n e g l e c t had t a k e n i t s t o l l . Too o f t e n t i m b e r c u t t e r s had t a k e n t h e good t r e e s and l e f t t h e d e f e c t i v e ones t o r e p r o d u c e t h e n e x t g e n e r a t i o n - - s u r v i v a l n o t o f t h e f i t t e s t b u t o f t h e unwanted. Timber growth was n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o r e p l a c e what! was h a r v e s t e d .

The Tennessee R i v e r was a t one a n d t h e same t i m e t h e r e g i o n ' s s c o u r g e and i t s g r e a t e s t o p p o r t u n i t y . Major f l o o d s were f r e q u e n t and t h e Tennessee c o n t r i b u t e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y t c d i s a s t r o u s f l o o d i n g on t h e lower Ohio and M i s s i s s i p p i R i v e r s . L i t t l e u s e d b y s h i p p e r s , t h e r i v e r c a r r i e d o n l y 32,700,000 ton-mile:: in

1333,

most of it sand and g r a v e l . The i n s t a l l e d g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y was l e s s t h a n 500,000 k i l o w a t t s , much o f it i d l e .