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Combining Climate Change and Security of Energy Supply:
An Analysis with the ERIS Model
Hal Turton a, Leonardo Barreto b
a International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
b Energy Economics Group. General Energy Research Department (ENE) Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
7th IAEE European Energy Conference, Bergen, Norway, August 28-30, 2005
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Outline
•Security of energy supply and climate change
•The energy-system ERIS model
•Global oil resources
•Combining policies
•Some results
•Conclusions
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Combining Security of Energy Supply and Climate Change Policies
• Climate change and energy supply disruptions are major risks linked to the energy system
• Both are important to long-term sustainability and are affected by technological change
• There may be synergies and trade-offs
between pursuing GHG abatement and
security of energy supply
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Synergies and Trade-offs
•Synergies occur when actions are common to the two policy objectives
•Trade-offs occur when the best ways to
achieve the two policy objectives separately are very different
•When synergies exist, the costs of combined
policies may be lower than the summation of
the costs of separate policies
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The Energy-System ERIS Model
• ERIS (Energy Research and Investment Strategy), developed at PSI and IIASA
• “Bottom-up” energy-systems model with electric, non- electric and transport sectors
• Emissions and marginal abatement curves for CH4,N2O
• Clusters approach to endogenize technological learning
• Global, 11-region model (following MESSAGE model)
• Calibrated to year-2000 statistics
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Resource Classification
Other occurrences Additional resources VI
Proven reserves V
Enhanced recovery IV
Additional resources (50%) III
Estimated additional reserves II
Proven reserves I
Description Category
Conventional
Unconventional
- Oil shales, tarsands, heavy crudes
- Coal-seam methane, geopressured gas, tight formation, methane hydrates
Source: Rogner 1997, 2000
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Global Oil Resources
Source: Rogner 1997, 2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
NAM WEU PAO FSU EEU CPA SAS PAS LAM MEA AFR
Share of global resources (%)
OIL.VI OIL.V OIL.IV OIL.III OIL.II OIL.I
Total Resource Base:
5,500 billion barrels
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Resources to Consumption Ratio
• The number of years that domestic resources can support current domestic consumption
• Similar to R:P (Resources/Production), but incorporates physical import dependence
• Indicates long-term ability to maintain domestic
supply when facing disruptions to energy availability
imports + Net
•
= P
P P
R C
R
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Security of Energy Supply and Climate Change Policies
• Security of energy supply policy (applied in NAM, WEU, EEU, PAO and CPA)
• Maintain R:C ratio above 20 years
• Maintain viable extraction industry
– 25% of total supply obtained domestically until 2050
• Two climate change policies
1. Weak – emissions trajectory ~ $75/t C-e 2. Strong – 650 ppmv CO2
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Impact on Oil and Gas Consumption
-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Cumulative consumption (% relative to baseline)
GAS
-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Cumulative consumption (% relative to baseline)
Supply policy Weak GHG cap Supply policy and weak GHG cap 650 ppmv GHG cap OIL
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Impact of Policies on GHG Emissions
(relative to baseline)
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GHG Emissions (% relative to baseline)
Supply policy Weak GHG cap
Supply policy and weak GHG cap 650 ppmv GHG cap
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Impact of Policies on Global H
2Production
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global Hydrogen Production (EJ)
Baseline Supply policy Weak GHG cap
Supply policy and weak GHG cap 650 ppmv GHG cap
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Policy Impact on Energy System Cost
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
No policy Supply policy Weak GHG cap Supply policy and weak GHG cap
650 ppmv GHG cap
Policy instruments Impact on energy system cost (% relative to baseline)
9.1 %
10.6
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Conclusions
•There are synergies and trade-offs between climate change and security of energy supply
•They depend, among others, on the stringency of the climate policy.
• A strong climate policy could achieve security-of-supply objectives. Synergies with a less stringent climate policy are much weaker
•Supporting energy technologies that fulfill a policy objective in isolation could decrease flexibility to respond to other
policy goals
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Support Slides
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Eleven World Regions in the ERIS Model
1 NAM 2 LAM 3 WEU 4 EEU 5 FSU 6 MEA 7 AFR 8 CPA 9 SAS 10 PAS 11 PAO
1 NAM North America
2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 3 WEU Western Europe
4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
5 FSU Former Soviet Union
6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa
8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China
9 SAS South Asia
10 PAS Other Pacific Asia 11 PAO Pacific OECD
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The ERIS Model: Reference Energy System
Energy carrier production
PRIMARY ENERGY SECONDARY ENERGY END-USE Transport demand Energy carrier
production
Coal Oil
Gas
Uranium Biomass
Other renewables
Power generation Heat production CHP Refineries
Synthetic fuels
Hydrogen production
Alcohol production
Electricity demand Heat demand Non-electric/heat stationary demand
Air transport
Other transport Car transport
CO2-capture
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Global Gas Resources
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
NAM WEU PAO FSU EEU CPA SAS PAS LAM MEA AFR
Share of global resources (%)
GAS.VI GAS.V GAS.IV GAS.III GAS.II GAS.I
Total Resource Base:
35,400 EJ
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Some illustrative R:P and R:Cs for oil in 2000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C R:P R:C
NAM . WEU . PAO . FSU . EEU . CPA . SAS . PAS . LAM . MEA . AFR R:P and R:C (Years) Conventional resources
All resources
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Primary Energy Consumption: Baseline
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global primary energy consumption (EJ)
Gas Oil Coal Uranium Biomass
Other renewables Hydro
Impact of additional gas resources
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Global Electricity Generation: Baseline
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Generation (EJ)
Hydrogen
Other renewables Biomass
Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
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R:C (Oil) for 5 Regions
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
R:C ratio (years)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Extension of resource availability (years)
Baseline Supply policy Weak GHG cap
Supply policy and weak GHG cap 650 ppmv GHG cap
Supply security policy (baseline) Supply security policy (w/ GHG cap)
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Impact of Policies on Electricity Generation
-6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Supply policy Weak GHG cap Supply policy and weak GHG cap
650 ppmv GHG cap
Policy scenario
∆Generation (PJ)
Conventional coal Advanced coal Gas thermal Gas fuel cell Nuclear
Biomass and hydro Other renewables Hydrogen fuel cell
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Hydrogen Production
•Baseline: Mainly coal-based hydrogen
•Supply security: Increase, coal-based hydrogen
•Weak GHG target: Decrease, coal-based hydrogen is discouraged
•Combined supply security + weak GHG target:
Increase, carbon-based hydrogen + CO
2capture
•Strong GHG target: Shift towards carbon-free
hydrogen and carbon-based hydrogen+CO
2capture
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Impact of Technology Policies
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
No tech IGCC Adv. nuc.
No tech IGCC Adv. nuc.
No tech IGCC Adv. nuc.
No tech IGCC Adv. nuc.
. Supply policy . Weak GHG cap
. Supply policy and weak GHG
cap
. . 650 ppmv GHG cap Change in energy system costs (% relative to baseline)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Change in energy system costs (% relative to baseline)
