Integration of Quantitative and Qualitative Content Analysis in Media Research
Wilhelm Kempf
1. Introduction
Since the dispute between Berelson and Kracauer in the early fifties (see Berelson, 1952; Kracauer, 1952), the controversy about quantitative or qualitative content analysis focuses on two aspects: manifest vs. latent content, and representativity vs. exemplarity of the analysed texts. Both schools, quantitative and qualitative social science, seem to agree about the existence of a basic dilemma, according to which:
1. quantitative methods are suitable for the analysis of manifest content only; whereas 2. qualitative methods are time consuming, can rarely be applied to a large number of texts and, therefore, cannot meet the requirements of (statisLicai) representativity.
While quantitative analysis tries to escape this dilemma by emphasizing the impor- tance of representativity and disregarding the significance of the latent content, quali- tative analysis seeks the opposite way out by fOCUSing on the latent content and disregarding the problem of representativity. None of these approaches is really convincing.
Using the example of war reporting and propaganda, I will first try to show that 'manifest' and 'latent' are not categorical terms, but that there is a continuum be- tween 'manifest' ancl 'latent' content. The more refined propaganda methods are, the more are they hidden in the latent content. The analysis of propaganda, therefore, must not be restricted to the manifest content only. Based on these foundations I will then demonstrate:
1. The capacity of quantitative analysis for getting access to the latent content is underestimated ancl can be improved by use of advanced methods of data analysis.
2. Though it can be improved, the capacity of quantitative analysis for getting access to the latent content is, however, still limited. The more refined propa- ganda methods are, the more difficult it becomes to detect them by use of quantitative methods. Qualitative analysis is therefore unrenounceable.
3. The mere combination of quantitative and qualitative methods does not yet solve the sampling problem, and as long as representativity cannot be achieved, 145 First publ. in: Journalism and the new World Order Vol. II. Studying War and the Media / Wilhelm
Kempf and Heikki Luostarinen (eds.). Göteborg: Nordicom, 2002, pp. 145-172
Konstanzer Online-Publikations-System (KOPS) URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-opus-90615
URL: http://kops.ub.uni-konstanz.de/volltexte/2009/9061
qualitative research can always be rejected by disqualifying the analysed mate- rial as an arbitrary selection which cannot serve as a basis of generalization.
Advanced methods of data analySiS, however, provide a methodological basis for integrating quantitative and qualitative methods, which solves the sampling problem.
2. Propaganda techniques
As we all know, the aim of war propaganda is to maximize public support for a war.
In order to do this, propaganda applies various techniques, which can be roughly divided into:
methods for controlling the information that is made available to the public, and - methods for controlling whether the available information is accepted by the
public (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. Means of propaganda
Selection qf information is the most 'primitive' form of propaganda. It includes (1)
emphasizing facts or arguments that increase support for the war, and (2) suppress- ing fact.') or arguments that reduce this support (see Chapter 1).
Both of these means deal with the manifest content, and our research question would be: Which facts or arguments are presented to the public and which are not?
There is no problem in using quantitative content analysis to answer this question.
In democratic societies, however, information control rarely means simple black- and-white painting, and usually there is both positive and negative infomlation to be covered. This brings about the problem of meaning. And, as we all know, the meaning of a text cannot be found on the surface of the text but must be searched for between the lines.
Even the meaning of a single statement is often not in the statement itself but depends on the context in which it is placed. Analysing contextualization, there- fore, is a first step towards the analysis of latent content. Our research question will now be: How are facts and/or arguments combined with each other? Accordingly, we would not so much be interested in isolated facts or arguments, but in the patterns into which they are combined (see Kracauer, 1952).
146
From social psychology, we know that the more we are involved in a conflict, and the more this conflict has escalated, the more difficult it becomes to learn some- thing about the reality of the connict before it is determined in this or that way, and the more difficult it becomes to accept facts before they are interpreted (see Chapter
:».
Propaganda also knows about that and, therefore, does not present plain facts but evaluates and interprets them; often it even replaces the facts with interpretation of the facts.Our research question would now be: How are the facts evaluated? Or, since we already know about the relevance of contextualization: What patterns of facts, argu- ments and interpretations are presented to the public?
Analysing the el!aluation of facts - or the replacement of facts by their interpre- tation is a further step in the direction of both latent content and qualitative analy- sis: even if the analysis focuses on evaluations that are explicitly formulated in the text, we are now interested in aspects of the text which cannot be identified without entering into an interpretive process ourselves.
Although some aspects of the evaluative means of propaganda can be translated into variables for quantitative content analysis (see Chapter 12), the capacity of quan- titative analysis for studying these aspects is limited. Therefore, in order to code large numbers of news items within an economic time load and with satisfying intercoder reliability (Kappa > 0.65), only rough indicators, which are still located more or less on the surface of the text, can be used for variable definition.
Finally, there are other aspects of latent content to which quantitative analysis has definitively no access: the dynamics of how a theme is developing during the text, as well as the manipulatit'l? means of propaganda, such as two-sided messages and double-bind communication.
Two-sided messages' refers to a form of propaganda presentation which antici- pates possible criticism and thus makes the propaganda more resistant to countcr- propaganda (Lumsdainc & Janis, 1953). The critical point with two-sided messages, however, is that the counter-information must not be accepted by the public. This can be stimulated by incentives for social identification with the source of the propa- ganda message and, at the same time, incentives for social devaluation of the source of the counter message (see Chapter 10).
'Double-bind conununication', on the other hand, refers to a form of communi- cation pathology that was first described in the context of clinical psychology (Bateson et al., 1956). It is characterized by inherent contradictions in the propaganda mes- sage, and the lack of an option either to react to both of the contradictory messages or to withdraw from the situation. As a result of emotional involvement with both contradictory messages, it becomes difficult for the audience to query either of them (see Chapters 3 and 9). If the public has no access to independent information, it has no option other than to either believe the conclusions it is told by the propaganda or
10 withdraw into selective inattendence, prejudice, evasive skeplicism, etc. All these are consequences that serve the goals of psychological warfare by paralysing the capacity for resistance to the war (Kempf, 1994).
Both of these propaganda methods include some strictly manifest aspect, which is the information that is presented. They also include an aspect of weak latency, which is the coexistence of contradictory information within the same text; and they include some aspect of stronger latency, which is the (implicit or explicit) evaluation
147
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elements: the questioning of military force as suitable; demands for peaceful alterna- tives; perspectives for reconciliation; and critical distance from both sides. Again, however, these are a result of the facts being reported and not of the specific journal- istic presentation.
The articles from $OWHUUSRVWHQand 'DHQV1\KHWHUon the other hand, are more or less straightforward propaganda, discrediting Gorbachev's peace plan either by expressing concern about the prospects of Saddam Hussein remaining in power
$OWHQSRVWHQor warning of the risk that 'the new Iraqi indulgence is merely a trick' 'DHQV1\KHWHUBoth texts are dominated by escalating aspects, such as military values, framing the conflict in a win-lose model, negative references to mediation efforts and refutation of peaceful alternatives, emphasis on threat from the enemy and stimulation of mistmst of the enemy, demonization of enemy intentions, and incentives for identification with one's own side's elite.
Finally, more refined propaganda techniques were applied in the articles from the :DVKLQWRQ 3RVWand VDGGHXWVFKH=HLWOOQI which mentioned third party peace initiatives mainly in order to put the blame for the war on Saddam Hussein. Both these articles took up a last-moment peace initiative by Mikhail Gorbachev in order to portray the attack on Iraq as unavoidable. Both articles reported on Gorbachev's initiative to postpone the bombing only after assuring the audience that the Soviet Union had expressed support of the attack and put the Soviet reaction to the Allied attack on Iraq into the context of positive reactions all over the world. Some of the world's nations expressed concern but supported the war nonetheless. Only Cuba, North Korea and Iran condemned the bombing raids.
While the article from the :DVKLQIWRQ3RVWwas clearly dominated by escalating aspects (mainly support of military solutions and constmction of the conflict as a competitive process)i and followed a pattern of two-sided messages (expressing support for the war and anticipating possible counter arguments), the strategy of 6DGGHOWWVFKH=HLWOZIwas even more refined. The article devoted much space to critical voices that regarded the outbreak of war as a tragic event (which was, how- ever, unavoidable since Iraq had shown itself to be unyielding) and to Ciorbachev's mediation efforts. The Soviet efforts were covered quite positively and in great de- tail. They were neither queried nor explicitly rejected. There were even incentives for social identification with Gorbachev. At a first glance, the article seems, there- fore, to be a confusion of escalation- and de-escalation-oriented elements. Under closer inspection, however, the text breaks down into five sequences, which repre- sent five argumentative steps towards the conversion of indignation with war into indignation with the enemy (see Chapter 12). The whole article has the form of a two-sided message, in which the positive coverage of Gorbachev's peace initiative plays an essential role. Criticism of Allied policy as well as indignation with the outbreak of war and the failure of the international community are turned against Saddam Hussein. In this scenario, the detailed description of the Soviet mediation efforts and the incentives for identification with Gorbachev serve to reinforce the outrage at Saddam Hussein. The more the Soviet mediators have striven for a peace- ful settlement of the conflict, and the more this is appreciated by the article, the more it is justified to blame Saddam Hussein for the failure of the mediation efforts, the more responsibility can be attributed to Saddam Hussein, and the more it seems justified to fall back upon military means.
171
The differences in orientation towards conflict escalation and propaganda tech- niques applied in the analysed articles may be due to the events reported and their discursive context as well as to the overall direction of the respective papers.
The article from +HOVLQJLQ6DQRPDWappeared during a phase of the Gulf War in which it had become visible for the first time that the Gulf War was not a clean and merely technical war between weapon systems but a real war that produced real causalities and also affected the Iraqi civil population. During that time-spot, it would not have been wise for propaganda to reveal itself openly and, moreover, the Finn- ish media were also much more hesitant about supporting the Gulf War and re- ported about it in a more detached way (see Kempf, 2000).
The articles from $IWHQSRVWHQand 'DJHQV1\EHWHUon the other hand, were published during a phase of the war in which the enemy image of Saddam Hussein was well established. On the eve of the ground offensive, it was essential for propa- ganda to dismantle any initiative that could have disturbed the strategic plans of the military, and there was little risk in doing so quite openly. Public opinion had come to terms with the war already, and the peace movement (which was not so strong in Norway and Sweden) had nearly broken down.
At the outset of war, when the articles from the :DVKLQJWRQ3RVWand 68GGHXWVFEH
=HLWXQJwere published, the situation was quite different. There was still a strong peace movement (even in the USA, and more so in Germany); the enemy image of Saddam Hussein was much weaker; and a good deal of the public (especially in Germany) was still reluctant about the war and confused about its objectives. During this time-spot, it was essential for propaganda to integrate critical voices into its stmtegy, to intensify the enemy image, to justify the allied attack as an XOWLPDUDWLR and to pin the blame on Saddam Hussein. Accordingly, propaganda had to be much more cautious and refined.
Notes
1. That is, i.e. the share of coding units (e.g. news items) that stems from each of the latent classes.
2, Rc-ading of this section can be omitled without loss of continuity.
3. That is, selecting those news items that have the highest membership probability (sce Equation 4) for that style,
It. De..escalating aspects - such as the (implicit) recognition of the price of military victory and the questioning of military force as suitable or necessary are also reported, hut liule emphasis is given to them.
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