NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
NUCLEAR ENERGY: THE ACCURACY OF POLICY MAKERS PERCEPTIONS OF PUBLIC BELIEFS
Kerry Thomas Elisabeth Swaton Martin Fishbein Harry J. Otway January 1979 WP-79-4
Working
Paper8are interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily repre- sent those of the Institute or of its National Member Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Harry J. Otway is Head, Technology Assessment Sector, Joint Research Centre, Commission of the European Communities, 1-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy., This work was performed during his association with IIASA.
PREFACE
The r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y s y s t e m s , and 2 u b l i c p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e s e r i s k s , have become i m p o r t a n t con-
s t r a i n t s i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f e n e r g y p o l i c i e s . An e a r l i e r r e s e a r c h memorandum (RM-77-54) r e p o r t e d r e s u l t s o f t h e a p p l i c a - t i o n o f a n a t t i t u d e measurement methodology t o e x p l o r e t h e
b e l i e f s h e l d by a sample o f t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c w i t h r e s p e c t t o n u c l e a r e n e r g y ; a n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e s t u d y t o i n c l u d e f i v e
a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y s o u r c e s w a s d e s c r i b e d i n WP-79-5. The p r e s e n t working p a p e r r e p o r t s u s e o f t h e s a m e q u e s t i o n n a i r e t o measure
t h e a t t i t u d e s a n d u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f s , a g a i n w i t h r e s p e c t t o n u c l e a r e n e r g y , o f s e n i o r A u s t r i a n c i v i l s e r v a n t s i n a p o s i t i o n t o i n f l u e n c e e n e r g y p o l i c i e s . The a c c u r a c y o f t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e a t t i t u d e s and b e l i e f s o f sub-groups o f t h e p u b l i c sample most P R O and CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w e r e examined and c o m p a r i s o n s made between t h e p o l i c y makers own p o s i t i o n s and t h o s e o f t h e p u b l i c .
T h i s p a p e r was o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d u n d e r t h e t i t l e " M o d e l l i n g f o r Management" f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t a N a t e r R e s e a r c h C e n t r e
(U.K. ) Conference on " R i v e r P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l " , Oxford, 9 - 1 1 A s r i l , 1979.
ABSTRACT
The p r i m a r y p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y was t o e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t how a c c u r a t e a g r o u p of p o l i c y makers w e r e i n t h e i r a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s o f t h e p u b l i c w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . The r e s p o n d e n t s ( n = 40) w e r e s e n i o r
A u s t r i a n c i v i l s e r v a n t s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r e n e r g y m a t t e r s ;
he
q u e s t i o n n a i r e u s e d was t h e same a s t h a t employed e a r l i e r t o measure t h e a t t i t u d e s and u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f s o f t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c ( n = 224) and t h e sub-groups (n = 5 0 ) o f t h i s s a m p l e most PRO a n d CON t h e u s e of n u c l e a r e n e r g y . The p o l i c y makers c o m p l e t e d t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e t w i c e : once w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s a n d , o n t h e second o c c a s i o n , i n t h e r o l e of a t y p i c a l member of t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c who was e i t h e r PRO o r CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . T h i s e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n a l s o
p e r m i t t e d c o m p a r i s o n s between t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own p o s i t i o n s and t h o s e o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c .
P u b l i c a t t i t u d e s toward t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w e r e f o u n d , u s i n g f a c t o r a n a l y s i s , t o b e b a s e d upon f o u r u n d e r l y i n g d i m e n s i o n s o f b e l i e f : p s y c h o l o g i c a l ( a n x i e t y - i n d u c i n g ) r i s k s ; e c o n o m i c / t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s ; s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s ; and e n v i r o n m e n t a l / p h y s i c a l r i s k s . The p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own a t t i t u d e s were found t o b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more f a v o u r a b l e t h a n t h o s e o f t h e t o t a l p u b l i c sample; t h i s was p r i m a r i l y b e c a u s e t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' b e l i e f s a b o u t p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s made a s i g n i f i c a n t l y s m a l l e r n e g a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a t t i t u d e , and t h e i r b e l i e f s a b o u t e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k s made a s i g n i f i c a n t l y l a r g e r p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n .
The p o l i c y makers w e r e a b l e t o s h i f t t h e i r own ( p e r s o n a l ) r e s p o n s e s i n t h e d i r e c t i o n s i n d i c a t e d by t h e i r r o l e - p l a y a s s i g n - ments t o a c c u r a t e l y r e p r o d u c e t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e s o f t h e PRO and CON g r o u p s on t h i s c o n t r o v e r s i a l t o p i c , a l t h o u g h t h e r e was a t e n d e n c y t o o v e r e s t i m a t e t h e p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e PRO n u c l e a r p u b l i c . I n t e r m s o f t h e u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s however, t h e r e was a s i g n i f i c a n t f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i s e t h e
e x t e n t t o which i s s u e s o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e c o n t r i b u t e n e g a t i v e l y t o t h e a t t i t u d e s o f b o t h PRO and CON p u b l i c g r o u p s . The p o l i c y makers u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t h e n e g a t i v e v a l u e b o t h g r o u p s a s s i g n e d t o t h e s e r i s k s a s w e l l a s t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e
p u b l i c b e l i e v e d t h a t n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o s u c h r i s k s .
T h i s p a p e r was o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d u n d e r t h e t i t l e " M o d e l l i n g f o r Management" f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t a N a t e r R e s e a r c h C e n t r e
(U.K. ) Conference on " R i v e r P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l " , Oxford, 9 - 1 1 A s r i l , 1979.
1. INTRODUCTION
I s s u e s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l p o l i c y a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y a t t r a c t i n g p u b l i c a t t e n t i o n , a good example b e i n g p l a n s f o r n u c l e a r e n e r g y programmes. E x p e r t s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r making p o l i c y recommenda- t i o n s , and government i t s e l f , have been f o r c e d by e v e n t s t o t a k e n o t i c e o f p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s and o p i n i o n s . The m o t i v a t i o n s f o r w i s h i n g t o t a k e p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s i n t o a c c o u n t i n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s w i l l depend v e r y much upon t h e p a r t i c u l a r p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m i n v o l v e d ; s u c h a d i s c u s s i o n i s beyond the s c o p e of t h i s r e p o r t . For o u r purpose w e w i l l assume t h a t the aim i s t o f o r m u l a t e s o c i a l l y v i a b l e t e c h n o l o g i c a l p o l i c i e s , where v i a b i l - i t y r e f e r s n o t o n l y t o a n e t h i c a l l y a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l of p u b l i c r i s k , b u t a l s o t o s o c i a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y . T h i s r e q u i r e s know- l e d g e of what t h e r e l e v a n t p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s a r e a s w e l l a s an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e b e l i e f and v a l u e systems which u n d e r l i e t h e s e a t t i t u d e s . A s i m p l e ' h e a d c o u n t ' of t h o s e p r o and con a p a r t i c u l a r t e c h n o l o g i c a l i s s u e i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t ; t h e p o l i c i e s s e l e c t e d , and even t h e p r o c e s s e s by which t h e y a r e e v o l v e d , must be r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e r e a l c o n c e r n s o f t h e p u b l i c i f a broad b a s e of s u p p o r t i s t o be found.
E a r l i e r r e p o r t s i n t h i s s e r i e s have i n c l u d e d a p i l o t s t u d y which e x p l o r e d t h e b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s , w i t h r e s p e c t t o nu- c l e a r e n e r g y , of a group of e n e r g y e x p e r t s (Otway and F i s h b e i n ,
1 9 7 6 ) ; a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s o f a h e t e r o - geneous sample of t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c on t h i s same t o p i c
(Otway and F i s h b e i n , 1977; Otway, Maurer and Thomas, 1 9 7 8 ) ; and a n e x t e n s i o n of t h e l a t t e r s t u d y t o t h e comparisons of b e l i e f s h e l d a b o u t f i v e d i f f e r e n t e n e r g y s o u r c e s (Thomas, Maurer,
F i s h b e i n , Otway, H i n k l e and Simpson, 1978)
.
The p r e s e n t r e p o r t d e a l s w i t h t h e b e l i e f s a b o u t , and a t t i t u d e s toward, t h e use o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y h e l d by a g r o u p of s e n i o r o f f i c i a l s i n A u s t r i a . The r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y recom- mendations made t o d e c i s i o n makers a t t h e m i n i s t e r i a l l e v e l . Throughout t h i s r e p o r t t h e r e s p o n d e n t s w i l l b e r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e " p o l i c y makers".The p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c y q u e s t i o n w e have a d d r e s s e d i s t h e p o s s i b l e r o l e t h a t n u c l e a r e n e r q y might p l a y i n t h e A u s t r i a n economy. T h i s p r e s e n t working p a 2 e r r e p o r t s a compari-
s o n between t h e p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c , and t h e d e g r e e of a c c u r a c y w i t h which t h e p o l i c y makers p e r c e i v e t h e p u b l i c ' s b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s on t h e t o p i c of n u c l e a r e n e r g y . The
p o l i c y makers' own b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s w e r e measured w i t h t h e same q u e s t i o n n a i r e a s t h a t used i n t h e e a r l i e r s t u d y o f t h e g e n e r a l A u s t r i a n p u b l i c , t h u s a l l o w i n g d i r e c t comparisons. The p o l i c y makers' p e r c e p t i o n s of p u b l i c v i e w p o i n t s w e r e e s t i m a t e d by h a v i n g a sub-sample o f t h e p o l i c y makers respond t o t h e same q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n t h e r o l e o f a t y p i c a l member o f t h e p u b l i c
(who would b e ) 'PRO' o r 'CON' t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . A comparison between t h e s e i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s and t h e s c o r e s
a c t u a l l y o b s e r v e d i n c o r r e s p o n d i n g sub-groups o f t h e p u b l i c sample g i v e s a n i n d i c a t i o n of t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' view of p u b l i c b e l i e f s . The i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s a l s o p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e p o l i c y makers' p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i s s u e s u n d e r l y i n g t h e p u b l i c r e s p o n s e t o n u c l e a r
e n e r g y .
2 . THE ATTITUDE APPROACH
S i n c e t h e a t t i t u d e model used i n t h i s s t u d y h a s been s e t o u t i n some d e t a i l i n t h e r e p o r t s c i t e d above, w e w i l l o n l y summarise t h e main p o i n t s r e l e v a n t t o t h e p r o c e d u r e s and f i n d i n g s d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s p a p e r l / .
1. A t t i t u d e i s d e f i n e d a s t h e o v e r a l l f a v o u r a - b l e n e s s o r u n f a v o u r a b l e n e s s of a n o b j e c t , where ' o b j e c t ' r e f e r s t o any d i s c r i m i n a b l e a s p e c t of the i n d i v i d u a l ' s w o r l d ,
2. A t t i t u d e i s b a s e d on t h e b e l i e f s and i n d i v i d u a l , h o l d s a b o u t t h e a t t i t u d e ob- j e c t . The s t r e n g t h o f e a c h s u c h b e l i e f i s t r e a t e d a s a p r o b a b i l i t y judgement t h a t t h e a t t i t u d e o b j e c t i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o r a t t r i b u t e .
3 . A t any g i v e n t i m e a n a t t i t u d e i s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e sum, o v e r t h e s a l i e n t b e l i e f s , o f e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s , e a c h e v a l u a - t i o n b e i n g weighted b y t h e s t r e n g t h of t h e b e l i e f ( i . e . , t h e s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y
t h a t t h e a t t i t u d e o b j e c t i s c h a r a c t e r i s e d by t h a t a t t r i b u t e ] .
I n t h i s r e s e a r c h , a t t i t u d e s have been measured d i r e c t l y u s i n g t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l t e c h n i q u e of Osgood, S u c i and Tannenbaum (19571, and e s t i m a t e d by t h e method d e s c r i b e d
L'A
r e l a t i o n s h i p between a t t i t u d e and b e h a v i o u r i si m p l i c i t i n most s t u d i e s of a t t i t u d e . I n t h i s p a p e r , however, w e a r e p r i m a r i l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s a n d a d i s c u s s i o n of a t t i t u d e and b e h a v i o u r i s beyond t h e scope o f t h i s r e p o r t ( s e e Bowman e t a l . , 1 9 7 8 ) .
abovez'. The s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l measure o f a t t i t u d e w a s u s e d a s a c r i t e r i o n w i t h which t o v a l i d a t e t h e s e t of b e l i e f s ; t h i s was done by c o r r e l a t i n g t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l measure w i t h t h e e s t i m a t e d a t t i t u d e . The b e l i e f s used i n t h e p r e s e n t
s t u d y w e r e t h e same a s t h o s e u s e d i n the e a r l i e r s t u d y o f p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s : They w e r e b a s e d on p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h , a l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y and i n - d e p t h i n t e r v i e w s . The 39 b e l i e f i t e m s r e l a t i n g t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y t o a series o f p o s s i b l e a t t r i b u t e s and c o n s e q u e n c e s a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e 1.
3 . METHOD 3.1. Sample
The sample o f p o l i c y makers c o n s i s t e d o f 40 s e n i o r c i v i l s e r v a n t s s p e c i a l i s i n g i n e n e r g y m a t t e r s ; 34 o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e male, 6 f e m a l e . To o b t a i n e s t i m a t e s of t h e p o l i c y makers' p e r c e p t i o n s o f p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s PRO and CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y , t h e y w e r e randomly a s s i g n e d t o o n e o f the two r o l e - p l a y sub-groups: ROLEPRO and ROLECON. Only 35 o f t h e o r i g i n a l g r o u p o f 40 w e r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the r o l e - p l a y p a r t o f t h e
e x p e r i m e n t .
The sample o f t h e A u s t r i a n g e n e r a l p u b l i c w i t h which t h e p o l i c y makers w e r e compared was a s t r a t i f i e d sample c o n t r o l l i n g
f o r g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n (Vienna, p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l and r u r a l ) , s e x , a g e , and e d u c a t i o n . The number of u s a b l e i n t e r v i e w s was 224. D e t a i l s of the sample c a n b e found i n Thomas e t a l .
( 1 9 7 8 ) . Two sub-groups PRO and CON n u c l e a r e n e r g y w e r e formed w i t h i n the p u b l i c sample u s i n g t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l
measure o f a t t i t u d e a s the c r i t e r i o n ; the 48 r e s p o n d e n t s most f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w e r e termed t h e PROPUB Group, t h e 47 l e a s t f a v o u r a b l e t h e PUBCON Group.
2 ' ~ h e p a r t i c u l a r a t t i t u d e model used i n t h i s s e r i e s o f r e p o r t s i s t h a t d e v e l o p e d by F i s h b e i n and h . i s a s s o c i a t e s (see F i s h b e i n and Ajzen, 1 9 7 5 ) . The way i n which e v a l u a t i o n s and b e l i e f strength.^ a r e combined t o e s t i m a t e a t t i t u d e c a n b e s t a t e d f o r m a l l y :
-
nZ
bi eiA.
-
iwhere A. = t h e a t t i t u d e toward t h e o b j e c t ' 0 '
bi = t h e s t r e n g t h of t h e b e l i e f which l i n k s t h e a t t i t u d e o b j e c t t o a t t r i b u t e i
e = t h e e v a l u a t i o n of a t t r i b u t e i i
n = the number o f s a l i e n t b e l i e f s , i . e . , t h o s e c u r r e n t l y w i t h i n t h e s p a n o f a t t e n t i o n .
3 . 2 . Q u e s t i o n n a i r e
A q u e s t i o n n a i r e i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t employed i n t h e s t u d y o f t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c (Otway and F i s h b e i n , 1 9 7 7 ) was u s e d t o m e a s u r e t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own r e s p o n s e s a s w e l l a s their r e s p o n s e s when p l a y i n g ROLEPRO and ROLECON. F o r e a c h o f t h e 39 b e l i e f i t e m s t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f e a c h a t t r i b u t e was measured u s i n g a s i n g l e , s e v e n - p o i n t ( + 3 t o -3) s c a l e , where t h e end- p o i n t s were l a b e l l e d good-bad. The s t r e n g t h o f b e l i e f l i n k i n g e a c h a t t r i b u t e t o th.e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y was measured o n a s e v e n - p o i n t (+3 t o -3) s c a e where t h e e n d - p o i n t s were l a b e l l e d ' l i k e l y - u n l i k e l y t 3) -
.
O v e r a l l a t t i t u d e t o w a r d t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y was measured on t e n e v a l u a t i v e s c a l e s o f t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l method w i t h e n d - p o i n t s l a b e l l e d i n t h e c u s t o m a r y way, i . e . , good/bad, h a r m f u l / b e n e f i c i a l , e t c .4 . PREDICTION OF ATTITUDE FROM BELIEFS AND ATTRIBUTE
EVALUATIONS
I n t h e e a r l i e r s t u d y o f t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c i t w a s f o u n d t h a t r e s p o n d e n t s t a t t i t u d e s toward n u c l e a r e n e r g y c o u l d b e a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e d from a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f b e l i e f s l i n k i n g t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w i t h e a c h o f t h e 39 a t t r i b u t e s a n d t h e e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s - - t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n a t t i t u d e s e s t i m a t e d and t h e same a t t i t u d e s measured b y t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l was 0.63. Given t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e a t t i t u d e model i n t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n , a f a c t o r a n a l y s i s + / o f be- l i e f s t r e n g t h s c o r e s was u s e d t o e x p l o r e t h e u n d e r l y i n g dimen- s i o n s which c h a r a c t e r i s e d t h e t h i n k i n g o f t h e p u b l i c w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . his f a c t o r a n a l y s i s p r o d u c e d a c l e a r f a c t o r s t r u c t u r e r e l a t i n g t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y t o f o u r c l u s t e r s of b e l i e f s : p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s ; economic and t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s ; s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s ; a n d e n v i r o n - m e n t a l / p h y s i c a l r i s k s . T a b l e 1 l i s t s t h e 39 b e l i e f s and i n d i - cates t h o s e which - . w e r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h f a c t o r ( i . e . , b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n )
.
Y ~ l t h o u g h c o n s t r u e d as s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t i e s , t h i s m e a s u r e o f b e l i e f s t r e n g t h a v o i d s t h e s t r i c t r e q u i r e m e n t s o f
p r o b a b i l i t y m e a s u r e s . The b e l i e f s are n o t t r e a t e d as a p a r t i t i o n e d e v e n t s p a c e where p r o b a b i l i t i e s would sum t o 1. BY u s i n g a
b i - p o l a r (+3 t o -3) s c a l e it i s p o s s i b l e t o encompass l e v e l s o f p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e a t t i t u d e o b j e c t
-
i s o r . L s n o t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a t t r i b u t e i n q u e s t i o n .actor
a n a l y s i s i s a g e n e r i c t e r m f o r a s e t o f l i n e a r , p a r a m e t r i c s t a t i s t i c a l methods which i d e n t i f y t h e minimum number o f i n d e p e n d e n t d i m e n s i o n s n e e d e d t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e v a r i a n c e i n a l a r g e r s e t o f i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s . W e u s e d t h e method o f p r i n c i p l e components f o l l o w e d by V a r i m a x r o t a t i o n . T h i s t e c h n i q u e p r o d u c e s u n d e r l y i n g d i m e n s i o n s which a r e i n d e p e n d e n t , i . e . , o r t h o g o n a l f a c t o r s .4.1. P r e d i c t i o n o f P u b l i c A t t i t u d e s from U n d e r l y i n g B e l i e f Dimensions
These f i n d i n g s s u g g e s t t h a t f o u r t y p e s o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , o r i s s u e s , u n d e r l i e p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d n u c l e a r e n e r g y . To t e s t t h i s a s s u m p t i o n ' f a c t o r summaries' w e r e c r e a t e d f o r e a c h b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n . These f a c t o r summary s c o r e s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d by t a k i n g t h e f i v e i t e m s w h i c h l o a d e d h i g h e s t o n e a c h b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n . The f i v e b e l i e f s t r e n g t h s w e r e t h e n summed,
5
(
C
b i ) , a s were the c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i v e a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s , i=l5
( e i ) These two d e r i v e d m e a s u r e s were t h e n m u l t i p l i e d t o -
i=l 5
g e t h e r : ( h i ) x ( ei)
.
These l a t t e r p r o d u c t s w e r eC 5
i=l i=l 5t h e n summed o v e r th.e f o u r b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s , i . e . ,
I
[( b i ) x (
E
ei),
t o g i v e a r e v i s e d e s t i m a t e o fj=1 i=1 i=l
I
a t t i t u d e . I n s u p p o r t o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e s e f o u r dimen- s i o n s u n d e r l i e the p u b l i c ' s a t t i t u d e t o w a r d n u c l e a r e n e r g y , t h e s e new estimates o f a t t i t u d e , b a s e d now o n f o u r summary s c o r e s o n l y , were found t o c o r r e l a t e a s h i g h l y w i t h t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l measure of a t t i t u d e ( r = 0.66) as d i d t h e estimates b a s e d upon a l l 39 b e l i e f s .
4 . 2 . P r e d i c t i o n o f P o l i c y Makers' Own A t t i t u d e s
I n t h e case o f t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' a t t i t u d e s i t w a s found t h a t t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l measure o f a t t i t u d e and t h e a t t i t u d e e s t i m a t e s b a s e d upon a l l 39 b e l i e f s was 0.8921.
While i t would have been d e s i r a b l e t o p e r f o r m a f a c t o r a n a l y s i s o f t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' b e l i e f s c o r e s , t h e r a t i o o f b e l i e f s t o r e s p o n d e n t s w a s t o o s m a l l t o p e r m i t m e a n i n g f u l r e s u l t s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e f a c t o r s t r u c t u r e o b t a i n e d from t h e p u b l i c s a m p l e w a s a l s o t e s t e d t o summarise t h e M i n i s t r y d a t a .
2 ' ~ l t h o u ~ h i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h i s h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n f o r t h e M i n i s t r y sample as compared w i t h t h e p u b l i c s a m p l e , c o u l d i n d i c a t e t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' h i g h e r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n and
f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e t o p i c , i t i s more l i k e l y t h a t t h e d i f f e r - e n c e i n c o r r e l a t i o n m e r e l y r e f l e c t s t h e f a c t t h a t o n t h e
s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l t h e p o l i c y makers w e r e a s k e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e i r a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d " t h e u s e of n u c l e a r e n e r g y " w h i l e t h e p u b l i c were a s k e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e i r a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d " n u c l e a r e n e r g y " . S i n c e t h e w o r d i n g o f t h e b e l i e f s t a t e m e n t s r e f e r r e d t o " t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y " t h e p u b l i c s a m p l e ' s s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l a t t i t u d e d i d n o t c o r r e s p o n d d i r e c t l y t o t h e b e l i e f s measured.
To t e s t t h e u t i l i t y o f t h i s a p p r o x i m a t i o n , t h e ' f a c t o r summaries' d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n 4.1. were a l s o computed f o r t h e p o l i c y
makers. The c o r r e l a t i o n between e s t i m a t e d a t t i t u d e s ( i . e . , by
C 5
5summing o v e r t h e f o u r (.
C
b i ) x (C
ei) f a c t o r summaries)i=l i=l
I
and t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l measure was 0.85, i n d i c a t i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h i s r e d u c e d b e l i e f s e t . ~ h u s i n t h e r e m a i n d e r o f
t h i s p a p e r o n l y t h e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s w i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d
5. COMPARISON OF POLICY IrW<ERS' AND THE AUSTRIAN P U B L I C The f i r s t q u e s t i o n of i n t e r e s t i s t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s c o r r e s p o n d t o t h o s e o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . A s e x p e c t e d , t h e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e p o l i c y makers toward t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y were
s i g n i f i c a n t l y more f a v o u r a b l e t h a n t h o s e o f t h e t o t a l p u b l i c sample. T h i s i s t r u e f o r b o t h t h e d i r e c t measure o f a t t i t u d e
( s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l ) and t h e e s t i m a t e s b a s e d on t h e m o d e l / . I n o r d e r t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d t h e b a s e s f o r t h e s e d i f f e r - e n c e s 2-way a n a l y s e s o f v a r i a n c e (ANOVA) were c o n d u c t e d . The p a r t i c u l a r d e s i g n c o n t r a s t e d t h e p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c w i t h r e s p e c t t o a l l f o u r b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s on e a c h f a c t o r , u s i n g
5 5
115
5I
7/b ,
Z
e i , and (C
bi) x ( e i ) as d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s -.
i=l i=l i=l i=l
/ s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s c o r e s c o u l d r a n g e from k15; t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' mean s c o r e was 7.9, t h e p u b l i c mean s c o r e was 1.3.
R e c a l l , however, t h a t p o l i c y m a k e r s e v a l u a t e d " t h e u s e o f nuc- l e a r e n e r g y " w h i l e t h e p u b l i c e v a l u a t e d " n u c l e a r e n e r g y " . T h i s
problem i s a v o i d e d when e s t i m a t e s b a s e d on t h e model a r e con- s i d e r e d s i n c e a l l b e l i e f s were a b o u t t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y .
-
~ h e s e l a t t e r s c o r e s c o u l d r a n g e from 2900; t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' mean s c o r e h e r e was 30.6, t h e p u b l i c ' s was -97.8.
Z l ~ h i s c a n b e d e s c r i b e d a s a 2 x 4 m a t r i x where e a c h c e l l r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f o n e l e v e l (e . g . , p o l i c y m a k e r s ) of o n e f a c t o r ( g r o u p ) w i t h o n e l e v e l ( e . g . , e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k ) o f t h e o t h e r f a c t o r ( b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s ) . ANOVA e s s e n t i a l l y decom- p o s e s t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e i n t h e d e p e n d e n t measure i n a way w h i c h p e r m i t s t e s t i n g t h e s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f main e f f e c t s
( e . g . , t h e e f f e c t o f one f a c t o r , o v e r a l l i t s l e v e l s , when a l l o t h e r f a c t o r s a r e combined) and i n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e s e e f - f e c t s ( i . e . , where o n e f a c t o r h a s a d i f f e r e n t i a l i m p a c t on t h e l e v e l s o f a n o t h e r f a c t o r ) . The s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n f i c a n c e o f t h e e f f e c t o f f a c t o r ( A ) d e p e n d s on t h e r a t i o o f v a r i a n c e i n t h e d e p e n d e n t measure which c a n b e a t t r i b u t e d t o A and t h e v a r i a n c e which i s t r e a t e d a s e r r o r . The v a r i a n c e a t t r i b u t e d t o A i s t h e p o r t i o n o f t o t a l v a r i a n c e i n t h e d e p e n d e n t measure d u e t o v a r i a - t i o n between d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of A ( o t h e r f a c t o r s c o m b i n e d ) ; and t h e e r r o r i n t h e p o r t i o n o f v a r i a n c e i n t h e d e p e n d e n t m e a s u r e d u e c o n t d . n e x t p a g e
T a b l e 2 summarises t h e t h r e e a n a l y s e s of v a r i a n c e and p r e s e n t s t h e mean v a l u e s of t h e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s f o r t h e p o l i c y makers and f o r t h e t o t a l p u b l i c sample.
I t c a n b e s e e n t h a t t h e main d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c w e r e due t o d i f f e r e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s from t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k d i m e n s i o n s . The f o r m e r d i m e n s i o n made a n a p p r e c i a b l e n e g a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e p u b l i c ' s a t t i t u d e s b u t made o n l y a s m a l l n e g a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' a t t i t u d e s . I n c o n t r a s t , e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k i s s u e s made a l a r g e p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' a t t i t u d e s / . The p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c w e r e i n g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t c o n c e r n i n g e c o n o m i c / t e c h n o l o g i c a l b e n e f i t s and s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l r i s k s .
When t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i n a t t i t u d e c o n t r i b u t i o n w e r e aria-
l y s e d i n t e r m s o f t h e u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f s and a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a - t i o n s , t h e y w e r e found t o b e more c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e p a t t e r n o f b e l i e f d i f f e r e n c e s t h a n t o a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s . F o r
i n s t a n c e , a l t h o u g h t h e p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c a g r e e d i n t h e i r b e l i e f s t h a t u s i n g n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o economic/
t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s and s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l r i s k s , t h e r e w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e i r b e l i e f s c o n c e r n i n g psycho- l o g i c a l and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k . I t i s a l s o i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers and t h e p u b l i c a g r e e d i n t h e i r n e g a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s o f s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l r i s k and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k , b u t t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers had less u n f a v o u r a b l e e v a l u a - t i o n s o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s and l e s s f a v o u r a b l e e v a l u t i o n s o f e c o n o m i c / t e c h n o l o g i c a l b e n e f i t s .
I n summary, t h e p o l i c y makers w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more f a v o u r a b l e t o w a r d t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y t h a n were t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . T h i s was p r i m a r i l y b e c a u s e t h e p o l i c y makers d i d n o t a s s o c i a t e t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w i t h p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s , and b e l i e v e d t h a t the u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y would n o t l e a d t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k s ; i n c o n t r a s t , t h e p u b l i c s t r o n g l y b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o psycho- l o g i c a l r i s k s and was less c e r t a i n t h a t i t would n o t c a u s e e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage.
-
7 / c 0 n t d * t o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n e a c h l e v e l o f A . S i n c e e r r o r i s d e r i v e d f r o m v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n l e v e l s o f a f a c t o r i t i si m p o r t a n t t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between i n s t a n c e s where t h e e f f e c t s o f d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of a f a c t o r a r e measured on d i f f e r e n t ( a n d randomly a s s i g n e d ) i n d i v i d u a l s and on t h e same p e o p l e by re- p e a t e d m e a s u r e s . C l e a r l y , i n t h e l a t t e r case u n d e r l y i n g con- s i s t e n c i e s i n t h e r e s p o n s e c a n b e e x p e c t e d and have t o b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t . T h i s c a n b e d o n e by a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e . I t
s h o u l d b e n o t e d t h a t r e p e a t e d m e a s u r e s w e r e u s e d i n a l l t h e f a c t o r i a l d e s i g n s i n t h i s s t u d y .
g / ~ h e p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a t t i t u d e made by a r i s k d i m e n s i o n i s d u e t o t h e b e l i e f t h a t t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y w i l l n o t l e a d t o n e g a t i v e l y v a l u e d r i s k s . T h i s d o u b l e n e g a t i v e
r e s u l t s i n a p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a t t i t u d e .
6 . COMPARISON OF POLICY MAKERS' OWN AND ROLE-PLAY RESPONSES The u l t i m a t e g o a l o f t h i s s t u d y was t o d i s c o v e r t h o s e p a t t e r n s o f a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s and b e l i e f s which t h e p o l i c y makers p e r c e i v e d a s t y p i c a l of members o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c who a r e PRO and CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y ( i . e . , t h e PUBPRO and PUBCON G r o u p s ) . However, b e f o r e making a d i r e c t comparison between t h e s e p e r c e p t i o n s ( t h e r o l e - p l a y r e s p o n s e s ) and t h e a c t u a l f i n d i n g s f o r t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , i t i s i n s t r u c - t i v e t o examine t h e r o l e - p l a y r e s p o n s e s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e p o l i c y makers' own p o s i t i o n s .
The o v e r a l l e f f e c t s of p l a y i n g ROLEPRO and ROLECON a r e r e f l e c t e d i n measures o f a t t i t u d e a s e s t i m a t e d E / from t h e sum of t h e e v a l u a t i o n x b e l i e f s t r e n g t h p r o d u c t s o v e r t h e f o u r b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s . T a b l e 3 shows t h a t b o t h g r o u p membership
(ROLEPRO/ROLECON) and r o l e - p l a y (SELF/ROLE) had a s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t on t h i s measure o f a t t i t u d e , and t h a t t h e i n t e r - a c t i o n between t h e s e v a r i a b l e s was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t . Examina- t i o n of t h e mean v a l u e s o f a t t i t u d e i n t h e f o u r c e l l s o f
T a b l e 3 c l a r i f i e s t h e i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t ; i t c a n b e s e e n t h a t i n t h e SELF c o n d i t i o n t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n a t t i t u d e between t h e two groups--evidence t h a t t h e p o l i c y
l o /
makers were randomly a s s i g n e d t o ROLEPRO and ROLECON groups-
.
When r e s p o n d i n g i n - r o l e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n a t t i t u d e between t h o s e p l a y i n g PRO and CON were s i g n i f i c a n t . F u r t h e r , s i n c e t h e p o l i c y makers' own a t t i t u d e s w e r e more f a v o u r a b l e t h a n t h o s e o f t h e p u b l i c , the change i n a t t i t u d e from own p o s i t i o n t o r o l e r e s p o n s e was g r e a t e r f o r t h e ROLECON g r o u p t h a n f o r t h e ROLEPXO group.
The d e t a i l e d c o m p a r i s o n s o f p o l i c y makers' own r e s p o n s e s w i t h t h o s e t h e y made i n - r o l e were b a s e d on a 2 (ROLEPRO/ROLE- CON) x 2 (SELF/ROLE) x 4 ( B e l i e f Dimensions] a n a l y s i s o f
v a r i a n c e of t h e t h r e e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s , i . e . , t h e e v a l u a - t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h b e l i e f dimension ( e )
,
t h e b e l i e f s t r e n g t h r e l a t i n g e a c h b e l i e f dimension t o t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r y ( x b ) , and t h e p r o d u c t of t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s [(C e
x Z b)f
r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h b e l i e f dimension t o t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e . A summary o f t h e s e t h r e e a n a l y s e s o f v a r i a n c e i s g i v e n i n T a b l e 4 and a d e t a i l e d breakdown o f t h e mean v a l u e s i s shown i n T a b l e 5.Z'semantic d i f f e r e n t i a l measures o f a t t i t u d e were n o t o b t a i n e d i n t h e r o l e p l a y c o n d i t i o n .
=/This d i f f e r e n c e i n mean a t t i t u d e i s n e v e r t h e l s s l a r g e r t h a n m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d . I t c a n b e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e c h a n c e p l a c e m e n t o f two i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h i n i t i a l v i e w p o i n t s which w e r e s t r o n g l y CON i n t h e ROLECON group.
T a b l e 4 shows t h a t t h e r e were s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t s f o r a l l t h r e e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s - - t h e o n l y e x c e p t i o n b e i n g t h e a b s e n c e o f a d i f f e r e n c e between t h e SELF a n d ROLE c o n d i - t i o n s f o r a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s . Most i m p o r t a n t f o r t h i s d i s c u s s i o n , however, a r e t h e s i g n i f i c a n t two-way i n t e r a c t i o n s o f ROLEPRO/ROLECON w i t h SELF/ROLE f o r a l l t h r e e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ( i . e . , t h e t h r e e f a c t o r summaries) and t h e s i g n i f i - c a n t three-way i n t e r a c t i o n f o r b e l i e f s t r e n g t h m e a s u r e s (ROLE- PRO/ROLECON x SELF/ROLE x B e l i e f D i m e n s i o n s ) .
Looking f i r s t a t t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e a c h b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n t o t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e i t c a n b e s e e n t h a t t h e r e a r e n o s i g n i - f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e SELF r e s p o n s e s o f t h e ROLEPRO and ROLECON g r o u p s . When r e s p o n d i n g i n - r o l e t h e ROLEPRO g r o u p t e n d e d t o s h i f t i n a p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n o n a l l b e l i e f dimen-' s i o n s , b u t n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y s o . However, as shown by t h e a n a l y s i s o f the e s t i m a t e d a t t i t u d e s c o r e s , t h e n e t e f f e c t o f t h e s e n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t s o n e a c h o f t h e f o u r b e l i e f dimen- s i o n s had a c u m u l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t o n o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e . F o r t h e ROLECON g r o u p t h e s h i f t from SELF t o ROLE r e s p o n s e was i n t h e n e g a t i v e d i r e c t i o n , and s i g n i f i c a n t , o n a l l f o u r b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s . Thus, i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e SELF r e s p o n s e s , t h e r e w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e r o l e r e s p o n s e s o f t h e two g r o u p s .
These d i f f e r e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o a t t i t u d e w e r e d u e p r i - m a r i l y t o t h e f a c t t h a t when r o l e p l a y i n g , t h e r e s p o n d e n t s made g r e a t e r s h i f t s i n b e l i e f s t r e n g t h s t h a n i n a t t r i b u t e
e v a l u a t i o n s . Although b o t h ROLEPRO and ROLECON g r o u p s s h i f t e d t h e i r e v a l u a t i o n s o f r i s k s and b e n e f i t s i n t h e d i r e c t i o n a p p r o - p r i a t e t o t h e i r a s s i g n e d r o l e s , none o f t h e s e c h a n g e s were
s i g n i f i c a n t . A s i m i l a r p a t t e r n o f r e s p o n s e s h i f t w a s f o u n d w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e b e l i e f s o f the ROLEPRO g r o u p ; however, f o r t h e ROLECOW g r o u p , s h i f t s o n t h r e e of t h e b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . The p o l i c y makers a s s i g n e d t o p l a y
t h e CON r o l e s h i f t e d t h e i r own b e l i e f s w i t h r e s p e c t t o psycho- l o g i c a l r i s k s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k s , as w e l l as economic/
t e c h n o l o g i c a l b e n e f i t s ; t h e y d i d n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y s h i f t t h e i r b e l i e f s a b o u t s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l r i s k s .
I n summary, t h e r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers w e r e a b l e t o s h i f t t h e i r own r e s p o n s e s i n d i r e c t i o n s a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e r o l e s t h e y w e r e a s s i g n e d . S i n c e t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own p o s i t i o n s t e n d e d t o b e f a v o u r a b l e t o w a r d t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y , t h e s h i f t from SELF t o ROLE was a l w a y s g r e a t e r f o r t h o s e a s s i g n e d t o t h e ROLECON group.
6 . 1 .
-
B a s e s f o r Role P l a y Response S h i f t sThe r e s u l t s d i s c u s s e d above show t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers
w e r e a b l e t o t a k e t h e PRO o r CON r o l e and t o r e s p o n d t o q u e s t i o n s a b o u t a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s and b e l i e f s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . I n v i r t u a l l y e v e r y c a s e ( t h e o n l y e x c e p t i o n b e i n g b e l i e f s a b o u t s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s ) t h e r e w e r e
s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between r e s p o n s e s i n t h e PRO and CON r o l e s . However, f o r t h e PRO r o l e , t h e s e i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s w e r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from t h e p o l i c y makers' own p o s i - t i o n s . I n t h e CON r o l e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between SELF and ROLE r e s p o n s e s were s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h r e e of t h e b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s .
Given t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e s p o n s e s h i f t i n PRO and CON r o l e c o n d i t i o n s , i t i s w o r t h e x p l o r i n g w h e t h e r t h e p o l i c y makers made their i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s e s s e n t i a l l y i n t e r m s o f t h e i r o m p o s i t i o n s o r i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f these p o s i t i o n s . I f t h e p o l i c y makers made i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s which w e r e a n c h o r e d i n t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s , i . e . , a more o r less c o n s t a n t s h i f t from SELF t o ROLE, t h e n o n e would e x p e c t a n a p p r e c i a b l e
c o r r e l a t i o n between SELF and ROLE r e s p o n s e s . I f , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e y m a d e t h e i r r o l e r e s p o n s e s i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s , t h e n o n l y low c o r r e l a t i o n s between SELF and ROLE r e s p o n s e s c o u l d b e e x p e c t e d .
I n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e n o t i o n s ,
two
c o r r e l a t i o n s w e r e computed f o r e a c h r e s p o n d e n t : The c o r r e l a t i o n between SELF and ROLE b e l i e f s t r e n g t h r e s p o n s e s o v e r the 20 i t e m s com- p r i s i n g t h e f o u r f a c t o r s ; and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between SELF a n d ROLE a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s o v e r the same 20 i t e m s . These c o r r e l a t i o n s [ a f t e r c o n v e r s i o n s t o 2' s c o r e s ) w e r e examined i n a 2 (ROLEPRO/ROLECONZ x 2 (EVALUATION/BELIEF) ANOVA. T a b l e 6 p r e s e n t s t h e summary of t h i s AHOVA a s w e l l a s t h e a v e r a g e SELF-ROLE c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r t h o s e i n t h e ROLEPRO and ROLECON' g r o u p s . Note f i r s t t h a t , on a v e r a g e , t h e p o l i c y makers r e l i e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y on t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s i n p l a y i n g t h e r o l e o f t h e p u b l i c
(r
= 0 . 5 3 ) . ~t i s i n t e r e s t i n g , ' h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers were more l i k e l y t o u s e t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s as a b a s e t o estimate the a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e p u b l i c t h a n t o e s t i m a t e t h e i r b e l i e f s t r e n g t h s ; there w a s a s i g n i f i - c a n t l y h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n between SELF and ROLE r e s p o n s e s f o r e v a l u a t i o n s(F
= 0.611 t h a n f o r b e l i e f s t r e n g t h s(F
= 0.44).
For b e l i e f s and e v a l u a t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d t o g e t h e r , t h e role- p l a y s h i f _ t w a s q u i t e s i m i l a r f o r t h e ROLEPRO ( r = 0.56) o r ROLECON ( r = 0.50) g r o u p s , The c o r r e l a t i o n s between SELF and ROLE i n b o t h c o n d i t i o n s - w e r e a l s o a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e s a m e f o r a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s ( r = 0.60 and 0.62 f o r ROLEPRO and ROLE- CON r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . However, i n e s t i m a t i n g p u b l i c b e l i e f s t h e r e was a t e n d e n c y f o r t h o s e i n t h e ROLECON g r o u p t o r e l y less o n t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s ( r = 0.36) t h a n d i d t h o s e i n t h e ROLEPRO g r o u p
: C
= 0 . 5 1 ) .To summarise, when p l a y i n g t h e p u b l i c r o l e s t h e p o l i c y makers e s s e n t i a l l y u s e d t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s as a n c h o r s f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e p o s i t i o n s o f t h e p u b l i c , They d i d s o t o a g r e a t e r e x t e n t f o r a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s ( p e r h a p s r e f l e c t i n g a p e r c e i v e d commonality o f v a l u e s w i t h i n t h e i r s o c i e t y ) t h a n f o r b e l i e f s . I t w a s shown e a r l i e r t h a t i n t h e ROLECON c o n d i - t i o n t h e p o l i c y makers changed t h e i r b e l i e f s t o a g r e a t e r
e x t e n t t h a n i n t h e ROLEPRO c o n d i t i o n . I t c a n now b e s e e n t h a t ,
a l t h o u g h n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , t h o s e a s s i g n e d t o t h e ROLECON g r o u p a l s o t e n d e d t o make more q u a l i t a t i v e c h a n g e s i n t h e i r own b e l i e f s t h a n t h o s e a s s i g n e d t o t h e ROLEPRO group.
I n o t h e r words, t h e p o l i c y makers t e n d e d t o see t h e i r own views and f e e l i n g s w i t h r e s p e c t t o u s i n g n u c l e a r e n e r g y as b e i n g more s i m i l a r t o t h o s e members o f t h e p u b l i c who are p r o n u c l e a r e n e r g y (.i.e., PUBPRO) t h a n t o t h o s e who are
opposed (PUBCON) ,
The n e x t s e c t i o n w i l l examine t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e p o l i c y makers' p e r c e p t i o n s o f th.e p u b l i c ,
7 . ACCURACY OF THE POLICY MAKERS' PERCEPTIONS OF PUBLIC P R O AND CON POSITIONS
The f i r s t comparison between t h e p o l i c y makers' r o l e r e s p o n s e s and t h e p u b l i c was made, u s i n g a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e , o n o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e toward t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y a s e s t i - mated from t h e f o u r b e l i e f f a c t o r s . T a b l e 7 shows t h e summary o f t h e a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e a s w e l l as t h e means o f t h e f o u r c e l l s i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . Only t h e PRO/CON main e f f e c t was s i g n i f i c a n t . The a b s e n c e o f a s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t due
t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e p u b l i c and t h e p o l i c y makers i n - r o l e , a s w e l l a s t h e a b s e n c e o f a n i n t e r a c t i o n , p r o v i d e s
e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers q u i t e a c c u r a t e l y p e r c e i v e d
t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e s o f t h e p u b l i c g r o u p s . Although t h e r e was a t e n d e n c y f o r t h e p o l i c y makers a s s i g n e d t h e PRO r o l e t o o v e r - e s t i m a t e t h e p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e PUBPRO g r o u p , t h i s
d i f f e r e n c e d i d n o t r e a c h s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e , T h i s t e n d - e n c y i s n e v e r t h e l e s s i n t e r e s t i n g s i n c e i t i n d i c a t e s t h a t ,
d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers i n t h e ROLEPRO c o n d i - t i o n s h i f t e d t h e i r o m r e s p o n s e s less t h a n t h o s e i n t h e ROLE- CON c o n d i t i o n , t h e s e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l s h i f t s r e s u l t s i n o v e r - estimates o f t h e PUBPRO a t t i t u d e s . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e l a r g e s h i f t s i n t h e own r e s p o n s e s o f t h e ROLECON g r o u p r e s u l t e d i n a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s o f PUBCON a t t i t u d e s .
The major comparison between t h e p u b l i c and t h e p o l i c y makers' i n - r o l e was made u s i n g t h e t h r e e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s , i . e . ,
E e ,
Z b , [(Z e )
x ( I b ) ],
f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u rb e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s . The o v e r a l l summary o f t h e main and i n t e r - a c t i o n e f f e c t s i s g i v e n i n T a b l e 8 , and t h e breakdown o f c e l l means and d i f f e r e n c e s i n T a b l e 9 . T a b l e 8 shows t h a t a l l b u t one o f t h e main e f f e c t s were s i g n i f i c a n t , t h e e x c e p t i o n b e i n g a n a b s e n c e o f d i f f e r e n c e between t h e p u b l i c
makers' i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s f o r [(
Z
e ) x (I
g / ~ h i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e r e s u l t s shown i n T a b l e 7 c o n c e r n i n g t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e r o l e p l a y p e r c e p t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e e s t i m a t e , i . e . ,
i=l
I
Most r e l e v a n t t o t h i s d i s c u s s i o n , however, a r e t h e f i n d i n g s t h a t t h e r e w e r e n e i t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t PRO/CON x PUBLIC/POLICY-
MAKERS i n t e r a c t i o n s n o r s i g n i f i c a n t 3-way i n t e r a c t i o n s f o r any of t h e t h r e e f a c t o r summary s c o r e s . These f i n d i n g s show t h a t t h o s e p o l i c y makers a s s i g n e d t o t h e two r o l e - p l a y g r o u p s
(ROLEPRO and ROLECON) w e r e e q u a l l y a c c u r a t e i n t h e i r percep- t i o n s of t h e p u b l i c ' s p o s i t i o n s . I n o t h e r words, t h e p o l i c y makers a p p e a r e d t o be e q u a l l y c a p a b l e of p l a y i n g i n t h e PRO o r CON r o l e s . Once a g a i n , however, t h e r e was a s l i g h t , b u t n o n s i g n i f i c a n t , t e n d e n c y f o r t h o s e i n t h e ROLEPRO group t o see t h e p u b l i c a s b e i n g somewhat more p o s i t i v e toward n u c l e a r e n e r g y t h a n t h e y i n f a c t w e r e .
A s c a n be s e e n i n Table 9 , i t i s o n l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k dimension t o a t t i t u d e t h a t t h e p o l i c y makers were i n a c c u r a t e t o a s i g n i f i c a n t d e g r e e . Those i n t h e ROLEPRO group saw t h i s dimension a s c o n t r i b u t i n g p o s i t i v e l y t o a t t i t u d e while, i n f a c t , i t made a n e g a t i v e
c o n t r i b u t i o n t o PUBPRO a t t i t u d e s . Likewise, t h e ROLECON group s i g n i f i c a n t l y u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t h e n e g a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n of t h i s dimension t o t h e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e PUBCON group. These i n - a c c u r a c i e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k dimension w e r e t h e r e s u l t of i n a c c u r a t e p e r c e p t i o n s of b o t h a t t r i b u t e e v a l u a t i o n s and b e l i e f s t r e n g t h s ; t h a t i s , i n b o t h t h e ROLEPRO and t h e ROLECON c o n d i t i o n s t h e p o l i c y makers u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t h e n e g a t i v e v a l u e s t h e p u b l i c g r o u p s p l a c e d on p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s a s w e l l a s t h e d e g r e e t o which t h e p u b l i c groups b e l i e v e d t h a t
' t h e u s e of n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o s u c h r i s k s .
The p o l i c y makers a l s o were i n a c c u r a t e i n t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e p u b l i c on t w o o t h e r b e l i e f dimensions: R e g a r d l e s s o f whether t h e y were p l a y i n g ROLEPRO o r ROLECON, the p o l i c y makers t e n d e d t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e n e g a t i v e v a l u e s t h e p u b l i c g r o u p s p l a c e d on e n v i r o n m e n t a l / p h y s i c a l r i s k s a s w e l l a s t h e p u b l i c ' s b e l i e f s t h a t t h e u s e of n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o economic/
t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s . Although b o t h t h e s e l a t t e r d i f f e r e n c e s w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t , t h e y d i d n o t r e s u l t i n s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t e r m s of t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e s e two dimensions t o o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e .
8. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The main o b j e c t i v e of t h i s e x p e r i m e n t was t o t e s t t h e a c c u r a c y of A u s t r i a n e n e r g y p o l i c y makers' p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s o f p u b l i c g r o u p s with. r e s p e c t t o t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y , T h i s was done by a s k i n g t h e p o l i c y makers t o f i l l o u t a q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n t h e r o l e o f a t y p i c a l member of t h e p u b l i c who was PRO o r CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . The same q u e s t i o n n a i r e had been used e a r l i e r t o o b t a i n d a t a on t h e b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s o f s i m i l a r sub-groups o f t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c , t h u s a l l o w i n g d i r e c t comparisons t o be made.
I n a d d i t i o n , t h e p o l i c y makers completed t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e
from t h e i r own p o i n t s of view, which a l s o p e r m i t t e d comparisons
of the p o l i c y m a k e r s ' o m p o s i t i o n s w i t h t h o s e o f t h e p u b l i c - P e r h a p s n o t s u p r i s i n g l y , the p o l i c y m a k e r s t e n d e d t o h a v e more f a v o u r a b l e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y t h a n d i d t h e A u s t r i a n p u b l i c i n g e n e r a l .
F o u r m a j o r , i n d e p e n d e n t d i m e n s i o n s w e r e f o u n d t o u n d e r l i e p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h e u s e of n u c l e a r e n e r g y : p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s [ a n x i e t y ) ; e c o n o m i c / t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s ; s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s ; and e n v i r o n m e n t a l / p h y s i c a l r i s k s . A n a l y s i s i n t e r m s o f t h e s e d i m e n s i o n s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n o v e r - a l l a t t i t u d e s b e t w e e n p o l i c y makers a n d p u b l i c was p r i m a r i l y d u e t o t h e f a c t t h a t , f o r the p u b l i c , p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s made a l a r g e n e g a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a t t i t u d e and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k s made a m i n i m a l p o s i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n . A s i m i l a r a n a l y s i s o f t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' o m r e s p o n s e s , however, f o u n d t h a t p s y c h o l o g i c a l r i s k s made o n l y a minimal n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e c o n t r i b u t i o n w h i l e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s c o n t r i b u t e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n t h e p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n .
The p o l i c y m a k e r s made i n - r o l e r e s p o n s e s t h a t w e r e d i f f e r e n t from t h e i r o m . Those a s s i g n e d t h e PRO n u c l e a r r o l e s h i f t e d i n t h e p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n while t h e o p p o s i t e e f f e c t w a s o b s e r v e d f o r t h o s e a s s i g n e d the CON n u c l e a r r o l e . The l a t t e r s h i f t s w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r s i n c e t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own b e l i e f s a n d a t t i t u d e s w e r e more s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f the PRO n u c l e a r p u b l i c t h a n t o t h e CON p u b l i c - I n d e e d , d e s p i t e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s
between t h e p u b l i c and the p o l i c y m a k e r s ' own p o s i t i o n s , t h e p o l i c y makers w e r e a b l e t o a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e the o v e r a l l
a t t i t u d e s o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . T h i s was t r u e i r r e s p e c t i v e o f w h e t h e r t h e y w e r e a s k e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e a t t i t u d e s o f members o f t h e p u b l i c who w e r e PRO o r CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y , a l - t h o u g h t h e r e was a t e n d e n c y f o r t h e p o l i c y makers t o o v e r -
estimate
t h e p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e PRO n u c l e a r p u b l i c . I n t e r m s o f t h e f o u r b e l i e f d i m e n s i o n s the p o l i c y m a k e r s w e r e a b l e t o s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e p r o d u c e the b e l i e f s , v a l u e s and a t t i t u d e s o f p u b l i c g r o u p s PRO and CON t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y . T h i s was p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a t t i - t u d i n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s made b y e c o n o m i c / t e c h n i c a l b e n e f i t s , s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l r i s k s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l / p h y s i c a l r i s k s . The a c c u r a c y o f t h e p o l i c y m a k e r s ' p e r c e p t i o n s was somewhat dimin- i s h e d , however, by t h e i r f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i s e the e x t e n t t o which i s s u e s o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e c o n t r i b u t e nega-t i v e l y t o b o t h PRO and CON p u b l i c a t t i t u d e s . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e , p o l i c y makers u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t h e n e g a t i v e v a l u e s t h a t
b o t h p u b l i c g r o u p s p l a c e d o n t h e s e r i s k s and t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e p u b l i c b e l i e v e d t h a t the u s e o f n u c l e a r e n e r g y would l e a d t o s u c h r i s k s .
I n summary, t h e p o l i c y makers h a d q u i t e a c c u r a t e p e r c e p - t i o n s o f t h e o v e r a l l a t t i t u d e s o f o p p o s i n g g r o u p s o n t h i s c o n t r o v e r s i a l t o p i c - F u r t h e r , t h e y d e m o n s t r a t e d a good u n d e r - s t a n d i n g o f t h e b e l i e f a n d v a l u e s y s t e m s which u n d e r l i e t h e
a t t i t u d e s o f e a c h g r o u p - I t would b e i n t e r e s t i n g t o know w h e t h e r
these g e n e r a l l y good p e r c e p t i o n s a r e a c t u a l l y r e f l e c t e d i n p o l i c y recommendations and
the
degree t o which t h e respondents view p u b l i c o p i n i o n a s a l e g i t i m a t e i n p u t t o t h e d e c i s i o np r o c e s s .
TABLE 1
THE ORIGINAL S E T OF B E L I E F S ABOUT THE USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY
AND THE FOUR B E L I E F DIMENSIONS DERIVED FROM FACTOR ANALYSIS
FACTOR I: PSYCHOLOGICAL R I S K S
*
means exposing myself t o r i s k without my consent,*
leads t o accidents which a f f e c t large numbers of people a t the same t i m e ,*
means exposing myself t o r i s k which I cannot control,*
i s a t h r e a t t o mankind,*
i s r i s k y ,leads t o hazards caused by material f a i l u r e ;
-
has a delayed e f f e c t on health;-
increases t h e r a t e of mortality;-
leads t o change i n man's genetic make-up;-
leads t o hazards by human f a i l u r e .FACTOR I1 : ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL B E N E F I T S
*
increases the standard of l i v i n g ,*
increases Austrian economic development,*
provides good economic value,*
increases my n a t i o n ' s p r e s t i g e ,*
leads t o new forms of i n d u s t r i a l development,leads t o technical "spin-offs";
-
increases employment;-
increases the development of methodologies f o r medical treatment;-
reduces the need t o conserve energy;-
synbolises the i n d u s t r i a l way of l i f e ;-
s a t i s f i e s the energy need i n the decades ahead;-
decreases dependence on f o s s i l fuels;-
increases t h e extent t o which society i s consumer=oriented.FACTOR 111: SOCIO-POLITICAL R I S K S
*
leads t o rigorous physical security measures,*
produces noxious waste products,*
leads t o the diffusion of knowledge t h a t f a c i l i t a t e s t h e construction of weapons by additional countries,*
leads t o dependency on small groups of highly specialised experts,*
leads t o transporting dangerous substances,increases the likelihood t h a t a technology i s misused i n a destructive way by t e r r o r i s t groups;
-
gives p o l i t i c a l power t o big i n d u s t r i a l enter- p r i s e s .FACTOR I V : ENVIRONMENTAL AND PHYSICAL R I S K S
*
does exhaust our natural resources,*
increases occupational accidents,*
leads t o water pollution,*
leads t o a i r pollution,*
makes Austria economically dependent upon other countries, leads t o a long-term modification of the climate,MISCELLANEOUS: B E L I E F S NOT LOADING ON ANY FACTOR
involves a technology t h a t I can understand;
