Remittances,LivingArrangements,andtheWelfareoftheElderly Pfau,WadeDonaldandGiang,ThanhLong MunichPersonalRePEcArchive

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Remittances, Living Arrangements, and the Welfare of the Elderly

Pfau, Wade Donald and Giang, Thanh Long

March 2009

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19121/

MPRA Paper No. 19121, posted 11 Dec 2009 08:57 UTC

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" . " . (" ( 0 4 # 4 48 #. # ! G, Conclusions and Policy Implications

&

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References

5 # ( ( .( 0. 0 ( 46 51&&; 6 J # (# 0( ( 4 . "

- ! ( # #- 2 1&&1 5 1&&16F 54 4 6,

5 # ( ( .( 0. 0 ( 46 51&&;86 J # 0 . 8 (+ ''1* ''>

''<* ''= 1&& *1&&1F 54 4 6,

! , , , , 51&&< 6 J " # 2 % ( ( 4 # ! 0 4 0

# . #4 ( ) - #- +F , , ! , , ! 5 .6 Social Issues in

Vietnam in Economic Transition and Integration. ) ( 4 - %4 ( # 4, 4 %, =G?1 &,

! , , , , 51&&<86 J (( # . ( #4 (. - ! ## ! 4 (. ("

# 2 ( 4F , , ! 5 6 Social Issues in Vietnam in Economic Transition and Integration. ) " 8 ." ! . 0 8 #, 4 1 %, ;<? <@,

! , , , , 51&&=6The Vulnerability of the Elderly to Poverty: Determinants and Policy Implications for Vietnam, ( 4 - %4 ( # 4 #$ ! % # &=<, )

,

! , , , , 51&&'6 J ! ! - #(2 (" 0 . .

( 4F Development and Change;& 516) >>>?>@&,

# ." , , ++ , 5 ''=6 J ( (0") " # C $F. - ! ( # .

. # 4 ( ( 2 . " #- 2.F Journal of Economic Perspective 1 5 6) =<? '@,

5 ( # ( ( #2 6 51&&=6World Economic Outlook, ." !( ) ,

5 .( ( ( # 8 # 0 0 0 #.6 / 5/ ( ( . % (

6 51&&<6Assessment on Social Pension for the Elderly Persons in Vietnam, )

/ ,

C 5 ( # ( ( 8 . /, . . C # 6 51&&=6Country Summary: Vietnam, ." !(

) / . . C # ,

, C,I ! , ,I " ( , , , , C 0" , , 51&&G6Social Protection for the Most &eedy in Vietnam, ) " # 8 ." ! . ,

! , ,I , ,I # (( ,I , , , ! , , 51&&&6Changing Gender Relations in Vietnam’s Post Doi Moi Era, 02 . #0" % #( # - %4 (

#$ ! % # # . , ;, ." !( ) # C $,

. , , 5 ''16 J 4 2 " ! %% #( (" # 2 . ) " ( +EF

Asia Pacific Population Journal< 5>6) >?>1,

5 .(#2 8 # # - . 0 #. ( 46 51&&G6 J ( . ( "

" " . - ! 0 ( ( 4F 5 " ## ( ( ( ( (" # 2

% ( 46, ) % #(4 ( 0 # ( 0( ,

, , ! , , 51&&= 6 J # 4 (( 0 +. ( 4 # !

0 4 0 # . #4 ( F Asia*Pacific Population Journal1> 516) >?>1,

, , ! , , 51&&=86Groups Excluded from ‘Representative’ Household Surveys:

An Analysis Based on Remittances Sent and Received in Vietnam, .0 .. % #

&=? G, $2 ) ,

, , ! , , 51&&'6 J ( #4 (. 4% 0(. ( # ( 4 (( 0 .

. " # ( 4F International Social Science Journal5 .. ';6)

#("0 4 !,

1

0 . 3, # 3, 51&&=6 JK ( 2 ! - #(2 ( 4) " (.E FJournal of Vietnamese Studies> 5 6) &=? G&,

0"+ #D , 51&&>6Old Age Security and Social Pensions, # C $ 0 # ( 0(

% #(4 ( 54 4 6, ." !( ) " # C $,

/ ( ( . 51&&<6World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database,

/ ( ( . % ( - . , + #$) / ( ( .,

# C $ 51&&&6Vietnam Living Standards Survey (V&LSS), 1992*1993: Basic Information,

- #(2 4 . #0 . - . , ." !( ) # C $,

# C $ 51&& 6Vietnam Living Standards Survey (VLSS), 1997*1998: Basic Information,

- #(2 4 . #0 . - . , ." !( ) # C $,

# C $ 51&&G6The 2002 and 2004 Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VHLSS 2002 and 2004). # . ( ( ( (# 0 (+ . #- 2. 82 (" # C $ ( 4, (# - # 4

"((%)**+++,+ # 8 $, #!,- * ( * 1&&1L1&&;,%%(

>

TABLE 1

%umber of Households and Individuals

in the Vietnam (Household) Living Standards Surveys

Year %umber of Households %umber of Individuals

''1*'> ;=&& 5 G&;6 1;&@= 51&;<6

''<*'= @&&1 51 1 6 1=@>> 51=@&6

1&&1 1'G>& 5=<G'6 >1>=; 5 ';&6

1&&; ' =' 51<=;6 >'@'@ 5>=&@6

( ) " 48 # # 2 " . " . # 2 % % # % # (" . .,

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*> M ''<*'= 1&&1 M 1&&;

; TABLE 2

Demographic Characteristics of the Vietnamese Elderly Population (Percentage of elderly across demographic categories)

Age 1992/93 1997/98 2002 2004

@& H @; >@, G 1',@G 1@,@= 1@,==

@G H @' 1;,>> 1<,G' 1;,< 11,<G

<& H <; 1&, < 1&,&> 1 ,G= 1 , =

<G H <' &,= 1,;G >,G> ;,&>

=& H =' <,<1 ', > ,G< 1,=G

'& # &,=> , G ,'; 1,>

Gender

;>, ' ; ,'> ;1,<' ; ,G=

4 G@,= G=,&< G<,1 G=,;1

Marital Status

## @;,&G @ ,@> @ ,@' @&,G

+ >>,' >G,= >@,;; >@,''

(" # 1,&G 1,G@ ,=< 1,G

Urban / Rural Status

/#8 11,1< 1G,'; 1>, < 1@,@<

# <<,<> <;,&@ <@,=> <>,>>

Region

- # ( 1>,'G 1>,<= 1G,>G 1G,<=

#(" .( >, >,<> &,=' &,;@

#(" .( ,=> ,<> 1, > ,'>

#(" (# .( >,&@ ;,;= >,=< 1,G'

(" (# .( &,=' =,@= ',<' ','>

(# !" . 1,&> ,=G ;,& >,;

(" .( >,@ G,GG ;,&> G,>@

$ ! - # ( 1 ,G1 1&,1 ','> 1&,GG

Education Qualification

@>,;= @1,1= @&,G< G=,;

# 4 #2 1&,<< 1 ,;@ 11, @ 11,>;

0 #2 ,;< 1,>; 1,G> 1,@

0 ( 1, ' 1,&> 1,= ;,&;

!" # 1,&' ,=' ,'; 1,@

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*'> M ''<*'= 1&&1 M 1&&;

G TABLE 3

Living Arrangements of the Vietnamese Population Percentages Across Demographic Categories

1992/93 1997/98 2002 2004 Percentage of Total Population Living in Each Type of Household

# 2 @<,= @@,& <&,& @=,=

# 2 + (" # 2 =,= =,; ',@ 1&,1

% ( # 2 1,> >,= =,@ ',&

2 # 2 , ,' ,< 1,

Percentage of Elderly Living in Each Type of Household

# 2 + (" # 2 G',; G;,' @>,; @ ,@

% ( # 2 1<,1 1@,< =,& <,<

2 # 2 >,; =,; =,@ 1&,<

Elderly Living Arrangements

2 # 2 #. >,G ;,' G,> G,@

2 # 2 ## % ',G 1,< 1,G ;,;

(" # # % 2 # 2 &,G &,< &,= &,@

# 2 % . # 2 1,@ 1,> 1,@ 1,>

# 2 / 4 ## @,@ <, <, =,1

# 2 ## ',= &,< G,' ;,

# 2 / 4 ## !"( # @,; G,G <,1 @,&

# 2 ## !"( # ,; ,; 1,1 ,>

# 2 + (" ( % " # 1<,= 1>,@ 1>,G >G,G

# 2 (" # ( ( ;,< ;,> ;,= ;,G

# 2 % ( / 4 ## ,& &,' &,G &,>

# 2 % ( ## <,< <,@ ;,> >,>

# 2 % ( / 4 ## !"( # 1,& 1,> &,' &,=

# 2 % ( ## !"( # ,& ,G ,1 ,;

# 2 % ( # 0" # &,< &,< &,= ,

# 2 % ( (" # ( ( ;,= >,@ &,; &,G

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*'> M ''<*'= 1&&1 M 1&&;

@ TABLE 4

Distribution of %umber of Children Living In and Out of Household For Vietnamese Elderly in 1997/98

" # - ! 4 . " ) #0 ( ! .(# 8 (

! # % & 1?> ;N

@&?@; 1 ,;O >>,'O >G, O ',GO

@G?@' 1@,=O ;>,;O 1;,1O G,@O

<&?<; >&,<O G ,=O G,>O 1,1O

<G?<' >1,;O G<,&O ',<O ,&O

=&?=' 1=,=O @>,'O <, O &,>O

'& N 1G,;O @<,GO <,1O &,&O

# 2 ( 1@,'O ;@, O 11,&O G,&O

" # - ! # ( . " .) #0 ( !

.(# 8 (

! # % & 1?> ;N

@&?@; ',1O ',1O 1<,<O G>,'O

@G?@' =,'O <,@O 1;,GO G',&O

<&?<; G, O <,@O 1&,'O G@,>O

<G?<' 1&,1O G,1O 1;,<O ;','O

=&?=' >G, O @,'O 1<,=O >&,>O

'& N G', O ,=O ,@O <,GO

# 2 ( ;,@O <,<O 1;,'O G1,=O

( 48 # " # ) #0 ( ! .(# 8 (

! # % & 1?> ;N

@&?@; 1,'O >,<O G,<O <<,<O

@G?@' >,&O ;,@O @,&O <@,GO

<&?<; >,>O ,1O G,'O @',@O

<G?<' 1,=O <,'O ',@O G',<O

=&?=' =,@O 1@,;O 1&,&O ;G,&O

'& N <,GO >=,GO 1 ,=O 11,>O

# 2 ( >,@O ',<O @,=O @','O

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''<*'=

<

TABLE 5

Percentage of Households Receiving Remittances Based on Origin of Remittances

1992/93 1997/98 2002 2004 Households Receive Remittances From:

4 (( 0 . <',>O <<,>O 1&,&O 1,>O

4 .( 0 4 (( 0 . @, O <,=O <<,>O =@,<O

( # ( 4 (( 0 . G,@O G,@O G,'O <,>O

( ) 8 0 4 . ( . 4 ( && % #0 ( 8 0 . " . " . # 0 - ! 8 (" 4 .( 0

( # ( # 4 (( 0 . # 0 ( (+ 0 ,

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*'> M ''<*'= 1&&1 M 1&&;

= TABLE 6

Flow of Remittance Receipts in Vietnam Based on Age of Household Head

1992/93 1997/98 2002 2004

#0( %( #0( 4 ((0.0 - ( 4 ((0. (%( #0( %( #0( 4 ((0.0 - ( 4 ((0. (%( #0( %( #0( 4 ((0.0 - ( 4 ((0. (%( #0( %( #0( 4 ((0.0 - ( 4 ((0. (%(

Age of Household Head

1& ? 1' &,<O G, O &,G G,;O >,;O &,@ G,&O ;,'O ,& >,1O >,&O &,'

>& ? >' 1',@O 1',1O ,& 1=,>O 1&,;O &,< 1@,1O ',GO &,< 1>, O >,GO &,@

;& ? ;' 11,GO 1,GO &,@ 1',;O 1G, O &,' > ,GO 1G,=O &,= >1,;O 1',<O &,'

G& ? G' =,>O 1>,@O ,> <,=O <,>O ,& <,&O <,<O ,& 1&,&O 11,GO ,

@& ? @' >, O G,;O ,1 >,;O =,;O ,; ,GO G,;O ,> ,GO ;,<O ,>

<& ? <' ;,'O ,GO 1,; ;,'O ,1O 1,> <,&O 1,'O ,' <,;O 1,<O ,<

=& ? =' &,<O 1,=O >,= &,=O ;,1O G,G ,<O >,>O ,' 1, O >,>O ,G

'& # &, O &,&O &,& &, O &, O 1,1 &,1O &,>O ,< &,>O &,GO ,'

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*'> M ''<*'= 1&&1 M 1&&;

'

TABLE 7

Relationship of Sender to Receiver: Domestic and International Remittances in 1992/93 Weighted by Remittance Amount

Domestic Remittances ! 0 % (

( 1& ? 1' >& ? >' ;& ? ;' G& ? G' @& ? @' <& ? <' =& ? =' Relationship of Sender to Receiver

# 0" >,1O &,1O &, O &,&O ,GO &,&O 1,=O G,=O

" * " ? ? + >', O , O &,GO 1=,'O ;<,<O =&,GO =<, O '1,GO

% . 1,1O 1>,GO 11,=O @,@O <,<O &,=O ,1O &,&O

8 ! 8 !? ? + 0 # %" + =,=O G,@O > ,<O >&,<O 1G,GO >,=O ;,=O &,&O

# ( * # (? ? + ','O G>,&O >=,=O ,GO ;,<O 1,>O &,<O ,<O

# % # ( &,GO ,@O &,1O &, O &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O

(" # # ( - . G, O ;,@O >,'O &,'O ,&O 1, O 1,<O &,&O

# ( - . ,1O &,;O ,'O ,>O ,'O &,@O &,@O &,&O

International Remittances ! 0 % (

( 1& ? 1' >& ? >' ;& ? ;' G& ? G' @& ? @' <& ? <' =& ? =' Relationship of Sender to Receiver

# 0" ,'O &,<O &,<O &,1O >, O &, O G,'O ;,<O

" * " ? ? + ;&,1O 1,=O @,@O =,'O @1,1O @>,=O =1,1O =G,@O

% . ;,&O >;,1O <,&O =,1O &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O

8 ! 8 !? ? + 0 # %" + >=,<O >1,>O @;,@O G>,;O 11,'O > ,>O @,@O 1,GO

# ( * # (? ? + &,&O ,GO ',GO ',;O =,@O &,&O >,>O &,&O

# % # ( &, O 1,1O &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O

(" # # ( - . >, O >,1O ,1O &,'O ,@O ;,&O ,'O <,1O

# ( - . 1, O >,1O &,GO =,'O ,@O &,=O &,&O &,&O

Relationship of Sender to Receiver: Domestic and International Remittances in 1997/98

Domestic Remittances ! 0 % (

( 1& ? 1' >& ? >' ;& ? ;' G& ? G' @& ? @' <& ? <' =& ? =' Relationship of Sender to Receiver

# 0" &,GO &,&O &,&O &,1O ,<O &,1O ,&O 1,'O

" * " ? ? + ;;,=O ,GO 1,<O &,GO @G,'O ==,GO =<,&O =@,1O

% . =,'O >,<O =, O 1<,=O =,>O &,;O &,&O &,&O

8 ! 8 !? ? + 0 # %" + =,<O >,@O ; ,@O 1 , O @,'O @, O ,=O ;,=O

# ( * # (? ? + <,'O G;,&O >;,=O 1@,&O ,=O ,>O <,<O 1,1O

# % # ( &,@O >,'O &, O , O &,&O &,1O &,;O &,&O

(" # # ( - . ;,'O ,&O G,GO =,&O 1,@O 1, O ,>O >,'O

# ( - . >,<O 1,;O <,1O G,;O 1,=O ,1O &,=O &,&O

International Remittances ! 0 % (

( 1& ? 1' >& ? >' ;& ? ;' G& ? G' @& ? @' <& ? <' =& ? =' Relationship of Sender to Receiver

# 0" ;,1O &,&O &,&O >,GO ;,=O G, O ',=O ;,@O

" * " ? ? + >@,<O 1,&O &,<O ,=O ;=,=O @',<O <=,@O =;,<O

% . G,@O G>,<O ,@O @,&O &,&O &,&O &,1O &,&O

8 ! 8 !? ? + 0 # %" + >>,1O 11, O >@,=O GG, O >;,;O ',;O G,<O ,GO

# ( * # (? ? + G,@O &,&O 1>,@O 1,&O >,=O &,'O ;,>O =,=O

# % # ( &,&O &,&O &,&O &,&O &, O &,&O &,&O &,&O

(" # # ( - . 1,<O =,GO 11,=O 1&,<O >,<O ;,=O &,GO &,@O

# ( - . 1,&O >,<O ;,@O ,&O ;,GO &, O ,&O &,&O

#0 ) + 0 0 ( . # 4 ''1*'> ''<*'=

1&

TABLE 8

Logistic Model of Remittance Determinants for Vietnamese Elderly People in 1997/98

Percent of Elderly Receiving Remittances = 25.3%

"Spouses Share" Modification Percent of Elderly Receiving

Remittances = 34.8%

. ( # 8, . ( # 8,

Region

- # ( &,<'=P ?&,&>< &,=1&P ?&,&;1

#(" .( &,G<<P ?&,&=> &,G''P ?&, &>

#(" .( &,G=&P ?&,&<' &,;;&P ?&, ;'

#(" (# .( ,G'>P &,&=@ ,=>;P &, ;

(" (# .( ,& P &,&&1 ,&G=P &,& 1

(# !" . &,;;'P ?&, &< &,;G<P ?&, ;;

(" .( 5# # 0 6 ??? ???

$ ! - # ( &,< P ?&,&G; &,< <P ?&,&<

Urban / Rural Status

# 5# # 0 6 ??? ???

/#8 ,;@=P &,&@= ,@1&P &, &'

Marital Status of H. Head

## 5# # 0 6 ??? ???

+ 1,> =P &, G &,@>1P ?&,&'<

(" #+ . ( ## 1,>==P &, <' &,<<@P ?&,&G1

Gender of Household Head

5# # 0 6 ??? ???

4 &,;1>P ?&, ;@ , 1@P &,&1@

Age

! &,'G@P ?&,&&= &,'G<P ?&,&&'

! : # ,1'<P &,&;; ,>>@P &,&@>

%umber of Children

Q - ! . " &,<1<P ?&,&G; &,<1;P ?&,&<

Q - ! (. . " ,1;'P &,&>= ,1< P &,&G1

Pension Receipt

5# # 0 6 ??? ???

. &,'';P ?&,&& ,& GP &,&&>

Position in Income Distribution (Income Modified to Exclude Remittance Receipts)

.( 0 4 K ( 5# # 0 6 ??? ???

1 0 4 K ( , 'P &,& ' ,1G P &,&G

># 0 4 K ( ,G;1P &,&<= ,G> P &,&'@

;(" 0 4 K ( ,';;P &, 1> ,'&'P &, ;=

G(" 0 4 K ( 1,GG@P &, = 1,';1P &,1G

Work Status of H. Head

( #$ ! 5# # 0 6 ??? ???

#$ ! &,<=GP ?&,&; &,<<;P ?&,&GG

Unweighted Sample Size 1=; 1=;

Pseudo R² &, 1< &, >@

#0 ) + .( 4 ( . # 4 ''<*'=

( .) P 0 ( . . ! 0 0 ( (" GO - , # 8 8 ( . # 0 0 ( ( (" 4 - . (" 9% ( #2 - # 8 ., R % . . ." # R # %# . (.

# 4 0 ( +" 0" .% . . +" - ( ! (" # ." # (" # 4 (( 0 + (" (" #,

1

TABLE 9

Logistic Model of Poverty Determinants for Vietnamese Elderly People in 1997/98

(Poverty Measure is Modified to Consider Expenditures %et of Remittance Receipts) Mean Modified Poverty Rate of Elderly = 37.9%

. ( # 8,

Region

- # ( >, ;'P &,1@=

#(" .( G,'<GP &,; '

#(" .( @,11@P &,G@'

#(" (# .( >,@&GP &,>&G

(" (# .( >, &GP &,1<

(# !" . >,;G1P &,1'=

(" .( 5# # 0 6 ???

$ ! - # ( 1,'G@P &,1G;

Urban / Rural Status

# 5# # 0 6 ???

/#8 &,>G>P ?&,1&<

Marital Status of H. Head

## 5# # 0 6 ???

+ &,<1GP ?&,&@'

(" #+ . ( ## &,=G< ?&,&>>

Gender of Household Head

5# # 0 6 ???

4 , ;< &,&>

Age

! ,&> &,&&<

! : # &,'>= ?&,& ;

%umber of Children

Q - ! . " , ;>P &,&1'

Q - ! (. . " &,='GP ?&,&1;

Pension Receipt

5# # 0 6 ???

. &,>'1P ?&, <'

Work Status of H. Head

( #$ ! 5# # 0 6 ???

#$ ! &,<;1P ?&,&@;

Percentage of Household Aged 15C59 &,1&1P ?&,>;=

Percentage of Household Aged Under 15 1,1<=P &,G;G

Log of Household Size &,=@< ?&,&>

Remittance Receipt

5# # 0 6 ???

. ,<=1P &, >

Unweighted Sample Size 1=;

Pseudo R² &, @1

#0 ) + .( 4 ( . # 4 ''<*'=

( .) P 0 ( . . ! 0 0 ( (" GO - , # 8 8 ( . # 0 0 ( ( (" 4 - . (" 9% ( #2

- # 8 .,

11

! " # ! ! $% &'' ('

) % ) # * * &'' ('

+,-./0 &

1!

2 +

# ! ! $% &'' ('

1 ! 0 * / ! ) / ! &'' ('

+,-./0

1>

&1!

2 +

# ! ! $% &'' ('

1 ! 0 * / ! ) / ! &'' ('

+,-./0

1!

2 +

# ! ! $% &'' ('

1 ! 0 * 3# 4 5 / ! ) / ! &'' ('

+,-./0