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Uncertainty, Bayesian belief nets, and knowledge management

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Probleme bei der Konstruktion von Ontologien. Nach einer inhaltlichen Präzisierung des Ontologiebegriffs werden erkenntnis- und sprachtheoretische Problemfelder diskutiert.

Uncertainty, Bayesian Belief Nets, and Knowledge Management

Ulrich Metschl

TU München, Münchner Zentrum für Wissenschafts- und Technikgeschichte, c/o Deut- sches Museum, D-80306 München

ulrich.metschl@lrz.uni-muenchen.de

Many decisions, of an entrepreneurial as well as an institutional or personal character, have to be made on the basis of incomplete or partial information about the outcomes and results and, hence, under conditions of rist and uncertainty. Among the numerous propos- als for dealing with uncertainty Bayesianism has gained a prominent role. Although originally founded in decision theory, where for some it still constitutes a paragon of ra- tional choice, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in recent years in sta- tistics, in particular since the inception of Bayesian Belief Nets (BBNs), also known as Bayesian networks, now an area of lively research.

Worlds, Models, and KM

Cyrus F. Nourani ProjectMetaai@cs.com

Techniques for computation on generalized diagrams are defined and the KM implica- tions are explored. Descriptive Computing is presented and plan computation based on world models that are constructed from the syntax of logical theories is defined by gener- alized diagrams. Further epistemics for computation are defined by introducing der Vielleicht Vorhandenen, and defining an epistemic for computational illusion. A formula- tion of situations and possible worlds allow us to make precise theoretical statements re- garding the computability of AI planning problems. Dynamic Epistemic Computing (Nourani 94) is a consequence of the present approach. It is further shown how knowl- edge representation by generalized diagrams can be applied to descriptive and dynamic epistemic computing. Applications to the consequence closure problem, comparisons and to new A.I. advances in cardinality for concepts, KR, and cognitive modeling is re- viewed.

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