• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

Credit Scoring using Semiparametric Methods

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "Credit Scoring using Semiparametric Methods"

Copied!
14
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

"!$#%&!$'(''

)+*-,/.103254-6/78*-0:9<;&=>,?2A@<7B.14DCE0:=F2G7HC84-4-,I4-4J6I*-,I.<032DK57E*L2G@<0:9<,I4-4J7EMN7I2A,/9A2G0:CEOQP78*-*-7RK+S

,I*-4T2G7HU8,/,IN>2A@<,5*V0W4VUX7EMY6I*-,/.1032 O:7E4-4DOW7RKZCE9<.H2G7H=[0:9<0:=>0W\I,+2A@<,56I7E4]2A4+7EMYM^CE0:OW_<*V,57R`a,I*

*V0W4VUb;E*V7E_<N<4Vcedf2GCE91.<CE*-.gN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6&CEN1N<*-7EC86h@<,/4iCE4OW7E;80W4L2G0:6e.<0W4V6/*V0W=>0:9<CI2G0:7E9jCE9<C8O3S

k

4-0:4C84-4-_1=[,l2G@<Cm2n2A@<,oN<*-78P<CEP<0:OW0p2

k

7EMP,IOW7E91;E0W91;o2A7o2A@<,o;E*-7E_1Nq7EMrEP<CE.1rs6IOW0:,/9A2G40W4

;E0p`a,I9tP

kvuXw]xzy{E|}v~lyzsw€‚B}v~Vƒ

K 032A@

x„y…{

0:9<.<0:6/Cm2G0:9<;†C‡rEP<CE.<r‡6IOW0:,/9A2[CE91.

}

.<,/917I2G0:9<;i2G@<,J`a,I6?2A7E*l7EMT,ˆN1OWCE91CI2G7E*

k

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4Vc

‰ ,Š6I7E9<4V0W.<,I*‹CŒ4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6gCEN<N1*-7ECE6h@@1,/*-,

ƒ

2G@<CI2Š;E,/91,/*-C8OW0:\/,I4H2G@<,ŠO:0:9<,/CE*

CE*V;E_<=>,/9A2s0:9‡2A@<,eN<*V7EP<CEP<0:O:032

kŽuswxy{‘|}Œ~

2G7†C‡N<CE*L2G0:CEO’O:0W91,/CE*iCE*V;E_<=>,/9A2Ac‹“+@<0:4

=>7”.<,/OY0:4lCs4VN,I6/0:CEOY6/CE4V,•78M–2A@<,o—•,I9<,/*VCEOW0:\/,I.q˜CE*]2A0WC8OY™š0:9<,ICE*l›Š7B.1,/Oœ

w]x‡|}gžVŸ ~ y

¡ ¢

€ ‚ }¤£Ž¥¦wŸ ~R§Žw

—•˜(™›

~

K @10W6h@¨CEO:OW7RK 42A7Š=>7B.1,/Oš2A@<,‹0:9<©<_<,I9<6/,‡78M+CŠN<CE*L2

Ÿ

7EM$2A@<,e,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A7E*

k

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4i0:9gC‡9<7E9<N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6KC

k

csª,/*V,

ƒ ¡ w«E~

0:4iC‡U9<7RK 9

M^_<916?2G0:7E9

ƒ¬€

0:4CE9 _<9<U9<7RK 9&N1CE*-CE=>,2G,/*a`a,I6?2A7E*

ƒ

CE9<.

¥¦w«E~

0W4CE9•_<9<U9<7RK 9&M^_<9<62G0:7E9<c

“+@<,†N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6†6/7E=>NQ7E9<,/9A2

€

CE9<.Š2G@<,†9<789<N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6‡M^_19<6?2A0W7E9

¥¦w«E~

6ICE9¨P,

,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I.ŒP

k

2G@<,>­_<CE4V0WO:0:U8,/O:0:@<7B7”.Œ=>,?2A@<7”.tN<*V7ENQ7E4-,I.0:9td<,`a,I*-0:9<0¯®„df2GC89<0W4LK5C8OW0:4

wV{I°E°E±E~

c

‰ ,5C8N<N<O

k

2A@<,5— ˜(™š›²,/4]2A0W=>CI2A7E*J=>CE0:9<O

k

CE4¯CE9‹,ˆN1OW7E*VCI2G78*

k

2G7”7EO–0W9‡C&N1*-CE62G0:6/CEO

6I*-,/.1032s4-6I7E*-0:9<;†4-0p2G_1CI2G0:7E9<c[)+*-,I.<032[4V6/7E*V0W91;³.1CI2GC‡_<4V_<CEO:O

k

N<*-7R`0W.1,i`BCE*V0W78_<45.<0:4-6I*-,?2A,

CE91.[6I7E9A2G0:9_<7E_<4,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A7E*

k

`1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4K @<0:6h@X=>CEUf,/4$2G@<,lCEN1N<OW0:6/Cm2G0:7E9>7EM–C — ˜(™›

0:9A2G,/*V,/4L2G0:9<;@<,I*-,Ic ‰ , ,/4]2A0W=>CI2A,(CE9<.o6/7E=>N<C8*-, .<0:´,I*-,I9G2`BCE*V0WCI2A0W789<4Y7EMG2G@<, 4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CIS

=>,?2A*-0:6>=[7”.<,IO’0W9j7E*V.<,/*D2A7†4-,/,>@<7RKµ2G@<,e4V,?`<,/*-C8O,ˆN<OWC89<CI2G78*

k

`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4i0W9<©1_<,/9<6I,

6I*-,/.1032+K7E*]2A@<0:9<,/4V4-cn¶·9‡6/7E9A2G*VCE4]2D2G7&=>7E*V,5;E,/91,/*-C8O9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W65C8N<N<*-78CE6h@<,/4

ƒ

2G@<,

,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I.‡—•˜(™›¸=>7”.<,/O:4DCEO:O:7hKCE9X,ICE4

k

`0W4V_<CEO:0W\ICI2G0:7E9‹CE91.‹0W9A2A,/*-N1*-,?2ACI2G0:7E9‹78MB2G@<,

*V,/4-_1O32A4-cn“+@<,o,/4]2A0W=>CI2A,/.³6/_<*L`a,I4n0:9<.<0:6/Cm2G,o0W9HK @10W6h@q.<0W*V,/62G0:7E9&2G@<,iO:7E;E0:4]2A0W6i.<0:4-6I*-0:=5S

0:9<CE9A2e4V@<7E_<O:.bPQ, 0W=>N<*V7h`<,/.X2A7s7EP¬2GCE0:9bCsP,2-2G,I*4V,/N<C8*-CI2A0W7E9q7EMTr8;E7B7”.<r[CE9<.³rEP<CE.1r

6IOW0:,/9A2G4Vc

¹Yº¼»’½¾»?¿¾»?Àm½¾Á·º+ÂÄÃm½$ŏº¼ÆÇ¿YȬÀmÈ8»?½$ÉÀI¿$¿Ê¼È¬ÈfÃI½Å»?ËnÌAÍlάÃmϼ˼»V½ÂÄÃI½¿¾Á·ºAʼϼÐI¿Ì8»?½¾»?ÆÑÁ·ºJÒ8Ó·Ò[Ô·ÕʬÀmÏAÅ]ÆÑÖ¼×RÀmŏÆÇÃIÏlʼϼËμÆÑØDÙ

ʼÚÑÀmŏÆÇÃIÏÛÜ ×mÃmϬÃmØJÆÇ¿¾Á·º¼»V½YÝQ½¾ÃmÞ?»V¿¿¾»?ßJÀIŝàšÊ¼Ø¯ÌfÃIÚÇˬŚášÏ¬ÆÇâI»?½¾¿ÆÑÅ^Í/ã¼ä»V½ÚÑÆÑÏ[å]æ»?½¾ØJÀmÏAÍç]èé˼˼½¾»?¿¾¿ÂÄÃm½Á?Ãm½¾½¾»?¿¾ÈfÃIϼÙ

˼»VϼÁ?»Aê&ëoÀm½¾ÚÑ»?ϼ»•ë

Û

ʼÚÑÚÇ»V½Rãì^ϼ¿ÅÆÇŏʼÅÂ

Û

ʼ½5μÅ]ÀIÅ]ÆÑ¿ÅÆÇׇʼϬËÛÜ ×mÃIϼÃmØJ»VÅ]½¾ÆÇ»AãàšÊ¼Ø¯ÌfÃIÚÇ˼ŏÙWáϼÆÑâm»?½¾¿¾ÆÇÅ

Û

ÀmÅÞ?ʳä$»V½ÚÑÆÇÏ1ã

μȼÀIϼ˼ÀIʼ»?½Yμŏ½RèYíIã/îÙ·í·ïEímÓðä$»?½¾ÚÇÆÑÏBã‘æ»V½ØJÀmÏAÍA蔻VØJÀmÆÑÚñê1ØJÀm½¾ÚÑ»?ϼ»AòÉYÆÇÉYÆ^èºAʼÙóÌ8»?½¾ÚÇÆÑÏBè˼»

(2)

P78*-*-7RK,/*V4-cF“+@<,³CE0:=õ7EM2A@<0:4sCE4V4-,I4-4-=>,I9G2ö0:4i2G7öU8,/,INt2G@1,q*V0W4VUŽ78MCö6/*-,I.<0p2ŠO:7E4-4sOW7RK÷C89<.j2A7

=>0W9<0:=>0W\I,•6I7E4]2A4l7EMM^C80WO:_<*-,o7R`a,I**V0W4VU‹;E*V7E_<N<4Vc

“ k

N<0:6/C8O =[,2G@<7”.<4JK @<0:6h@CE*V,e_<4-,I.M^7E*2G@<,>4]2ACI2G0:4]2A0W6ICEO 6/O:CE4V4-0:ø<6/CI2A0W7897EM6/*V,/.<0p2sCEN<N<O:0W6ICE9A2G4oCE*V,

OW0:9<,ICE*l7E*l­”_1CE.<*-Cm2G0:6•.<0:4-6I*-0:=>0W9<C89G2HCE9<C8O

k

4-0:4C89<.qO:7E;E0:4]2A0W6 .<0:4-6I*-0:=[0:9<CE9A2&CE9<CEO

k

4-0:4-c“+@1,/4-,•=>,?2G@¬S

7B.14•6ICE9ŒPQ,X4-,I,/9b2A7bPQ,XP<CE4V,/.v7E9t4-6I7E*-,I4K @<0:6h@v.<,/NQ,/9<.v789³2G@1,‹,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A7E*

k

`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4H0:9ŒC

N<*-,I.<,/ø19<,/.‡M^7E*V=

w

_<4V_<CEO:O

k

OW0:9<,ICE*

~

c+ù,I6/,/9A2o=>,2G@<7”.<42A@<CI2iC8OWO:7RKµC&=>7E*-,©<,?ˆ0:P<OW,i=>7”.<,/O:0:9<;&CE*V,

9<,/_1*-CEO(9<,2·K57E*VU4eCE9<.Œ6IOWCE4V4-0:ø<6/Cm2G0:7E9b2G*V,/,/4

w

4V,/,X,IcW;8ctú*-=>0W91;E,/*

ƒJû

9<CE6h@<,s®üD7E9<9<,

ƒi{I°E°8ýE~

C84

K5,IOWOYC84n917E9<N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6 C8N<N<*-78CE6h@<,/4

w

4V,/, ,/c:;Eclª,I9<OW,

k

®ZªCE9<.

ƒ{I°8°EþE~

c

¶·9‹2G@<,eM^7EO:O:7hK 0:9<;†4-,I6?2A0W7E914lK,>.<0W4V6/_<4V4•M^78*5*-,ICEO’6/*V,/.<0p2s4-6I7E*-0:9<;†.<CI2AC

ƒ

@<7RK2A@<,>;E0p`a,/9ö,?ˆN<O:CE9<CmS

2G7E*

k

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4‹0:9<©<_1,/9<6I,Š6/*V,/.<0p2‹K7E*]2A@<0W91,/4-4Vcÿ“+@<,ŠM^78OWO:7RK 0W9<;d<,/62G0:7E9Œ;E0p`a,I4‹C4V@<7E*L2g.<CI2AC

.<,/4V6/*V0WNf2A0W789<cd<,I6?2A0W7E9[N<*-,I4-,/9A2A42G@1, *V,/4V_<O32A47EMšC[OW7E;80W4L2G0:6 .10W4V6/*-0:=>0W91CI2G0:7E9ŠCE91CEO

k

4V0W4Vcd<,I6?2G0:7E9

±

.<,/4V6/*V0WPQ,/4•2A@<,³4-,/=>0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6q,?ˆ2G,I9<4-0:7E92A7³2G@1,qO:7E;E0:4]2A0W6³.<0:4-6/*V0W=>0:9<CI2A0W7E9C89<CEO

k

4V0W4Vc ‰ ,q,/4LS

2G0:=>CI2G,I.ŒCE9<.t6/7E=>N<CE*V,/.v.<0:´Q,/*-,I9A2&`BCE*-0:CI2G0:7E9<4 7EMT2A@<,X4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6‹=>7”.<,/O0W97E*-.<,I*n2A7b4-,I,

@<7RK 2G@1,4V,?`a,I*-CEOQ,?ˆN<O:CE9<Cm2G7E*

k

`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4¯0:9<©<_1,/9<6I,6/*V,/.<0p2DK7E*L2G@<0:9<,/4V4-cld<,I6?2G0:7E9 6/78=[N1CE*-,I4š2G@1,

4-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:65øf2G42G@<,n6/O:CE4V4-0:65OW78;E0W4L2G0:6CE91CEO

k

4V0W4VcT0W9<C8OWO

k‘ƒ

d<,/62G0:7E9

þ

.<0W4V6/_<4V4-,I4 2A@<,,I4]2A0W=>CI2A,/.

=>7B.<,IOW4’K 0p2G@³*-,I4-NQ,/6?2n2G7>=>0:4-6/O:CE4V4-0:ø<6/CI2A0W789ŠCE9<.³N,I*-M^7E*V=>CE9<6/,o6I_<*]`<,/4-c

“+@<,XC89<CEO

k

\I,/.Œ.1CI2GCq0W9†2G@<0:4HN<C8N,I*•@<CR`<,‹P,I,/9tN<*-7R`0W.1,/.vP

k

C–*-,I9<6h@ŒP<CE91U”cj“+@<,s;E0p`a,/9M^_<OWO

,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9&4-C8=[N1OW,

w

.<,/917I2G,I.&CE4 0W92A@<,DM^78OWO:7RK 0W9<;

~

6/789<4-0:4]2A4’7EM

þEþ8ý

6ICE4-,I4

w

6IOW0:,/9A2A4

~

CE9<.

±

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4

«

ùn,/4VN7E914-,š`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,

w

6I*-,/.1032šK578*]2G@10W9<,I4-4

ƒEy

;E7”7B.1r

ƒ{Iy P<CE.<r

~

c“+@<,¯9_<=•P,I*T7EM

P<C8.<r

6IOW0:,/9A2G4•0W4 *-,IOWCm2G0p`a,/O

k

4-=>CEO:O

w]±

P1CE.<re`a,/*V4-_<4

þ ý

;87B7”.<r‡6/O:0:,/9A2G4•0W9†2G@<,>,/4L2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9

4VCE=>N<OW,

~ c

«

›Š,2G*V0W6[,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A7E*

k

`1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4 e2G7

°

c‡úO:O 7EM2A@<,/=²@<CR`a,

w

*-0:;E@A2

~

4VU8,K5,I.Œ.<0:4]2G*V0WP1_fS

2A0W7E914-c"!nCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4#

þ

2A7$

°

0:9sN1CE*]2A0W6I_<OWC8*¯@<CR`<,7E91,*V,/CEO:0W\ICI2G0:7E9iK @<0:6h@‹6/7R`a,I*-4¯C•=>C&%?7E*V032

k

7EM7EP<4V,/*]`BCI2A0W789<4-c

«

)+CI2A,/;E78*-0:6/CEO’,ˆN<OWC89<CI2G78*

k

`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4'

{(

2A7)

±

c[d103ˆŒ7EM$2G@<,I=²CE*V,&.<0:6h@<7I2G78=[78_<4-cs“+@<,

7I2A@<,/*V4D@<CR`<,¯2G@<*V,/,(2G7 ,/O:,?`a,I9†6/CI2A,/;E7E*V0W,I4šK @<0:6h@‹CE*V,9<7m257E*V.<,/*V,/.<c+ª,/9<6I,

ƒ

2G@<,I4-,`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4

9<,I,/.>2G7>P,o6ICI2G,I;E7E*-0:\/,I.q0:9A2G7[.<_<=>=>0W,I4M^7E*T2A@<,o,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9qC89<.>`BCEO:0:.<CI2G0:7E9<c

’0:;E_<*-,

{

4-@<7RK 4iUf,/*-91,/O .<,I9<4-0p2

k

,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I4

w

_<4V0W9<;‡*V_<O:,?Sh78MÑS¾2G@_<=•PgP<CE9<.¬K 0W.f2A@<4

~

7EM2A@<,&=>,?2A*-0:6

,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A7E*

k

`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4 †2G7*

°

cµúO:O.<,I9<4-0p2

k

,I4]2A0W=>CI2A,/4‹4V@<7RK2A@<,b,ˆ0W4L2G,/916/,g7EM578_f2GO:0W,I*-4

ƒ

0W9gN1CE*]2A0W6I_<OWC8*50W9‹2A@<,e_<N<NQ,/*¯2ACE0:OW4Vc–7E*¯2A@<0:45*-,ICE4-7E9‹K,e*-,I4]2G*V0W62G,I.t7E_1*5CE9<CEO

k

4-0:4J2G7‡7E9<O

k

2G@<7E4V,

7EP<4V,/*]`BCI2A0W789<4$K 032A@+

ƒ-,,.,$ƒ

°0/2143 ž

5Wc ‰ ,+.<,I9<7I2A, 2A@<,l*-,I4-_<Op2G0:9<; .<CI2GCo4V,?27EM

þ–{(6

6ICE4-,I4¯C84

789.:<;[cY“+@<,oUf,/*-91,/O.<,/914-0p2

k

,I4]2A0W=>CI2A,/4nM^7E*T2G@<0:4n4-=>CEO:OW,I*n4VCE=>N<O:,•CE*V,o4-@<7RK 9b0:9’0W;8_<*-,'Ec

(3)

°

6/O:,/CE*VO

k

4-,I,/9&2G@1CI2J2G@1,¯`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4>

þ

2G7?

°

CE*-,7EMY­_<CE4-0pSh.10W4V6/*-,2G,o4]2A*-_<62G_<*V,/c

‰

,¯K 0WO:O”2A@<,/*V,/M^7E*V,

6/7E916/,/9A2A*-CI2A,•7E9&`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4o2A7< >M^7E*T2G@1, 917E9<N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6•N<C8*]2 7EMš4-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6H=>7B.1,/O:c

¶·9qC8.<.<0p2G0:7E9[2A7o2A@<,o,/4]2A0W=>CI2A0W789b4-C8=[N1OW,

ƒ

2A@<,•P1CE9<U‡N<*V7h`0:.<,/.b_<4’K 032A@bCi`1C8OW0:.<CI2A0W7E9q.<CI2AC[4V,?2H7EM

{ 6

6/CE4V,/4Vc

‰

,&.<,I9<7I2A,2G@<0:4¯`BCEO:0W.1CI2G0:7E9Š.<Cm2GC‡4-,2>CE4@ 7.A.:)B0:9X2G@<,HM^7EOWO:7RK 0W91;Ec&“šCEP<O:,

{

4-_<=>=>CE*V0W\I,/4 2G@<,oNQ,/*-6I,/9A2GC8;E,•78MrE;87B7”.<reCE9<.³rEP<C8.<r>6/O:0W,I9G2A40:9³,/CE6h@q4-_<P<4VCE=>N<O:,/c

û

4]2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9

w

M^_<O:O

~ û

4]2A0W=>CI2A0W7E9

w

_<4V,/.

~

!nCEO:0:.<CI2G0:7E9

7.9< C; CB

qw

r8;E7B7”.<r

~ þ ý w]°8±

c

ED[~

6E6 w]°E±

c

D>~ E±

w]°E±

c

6D>~

{>w r8P<CE.<r

~ ± w’þ

c

ED[~

ý w þ

c

D>~ {E{

w

8cF

D>~

2A7I2GCEO

þEþEý þ–{(6E { 6

“šCEP<O:,

{

c+ù,I4-NQ7E9<4-,I40:9³.<CI2GC>4V,?2G4nú

ƒ ü CE91.q)+c

“+@<,nOW7E;8032=>7B.<,IO

w

O:7E;E0:4]2G0:6n.<0W4V6/*V0W=>0:9<CE9A2oCE9<C8O

k

4-0:4

~

CE4-4V_<=>,/42G@<CI22G@1,N<*V7EP<CEP10WO:032

k

7EMP,IOW789<;E0:9<;

2G752G@1, ;8*-7E_<N†7EM

P<C8.<rs6IOW0:,/9A2A40:4l;E03`<,/9qP

k

uswxyÿ{‘|}v~ y 

GIH

JLKEG

€ ‚

J } J

£ö€NM w-{m~

K @<,/*V,

XwPO~ y

{

{T£

,?ˆN

wQ3ROš~

0W4l2G@<,XOW7E;80W4L2G0:6

w

6I_<=H_1OWCI2A03`<,

~

.<0:4]2A*-0:P<_f2G0:7E9vM^_<916?2G0:7E9<c

} J

.<,I9<7I2A,/42A@<,TSGS¾2A@³`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,X0:MR#St0:4

=>,?2G*V0W6

wS /

¢

ž,,,ž/°‘§E~

CE9<.•2A@<,`<,/62G7E*¯7EMY.<_<=>=>0W,I4J0:MU#S[0:4D6/Cm2G,/;87E*-0:6/CEO

wS / ¢

{(‘ž.,,,$ž ±‘§E~

c

–7E*JCEO:OY6/CI2A,/;E78*-0:6/CEO1`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4 K,o_<4-,I.[2A@<,oø<*-4L2H6ICI2G,I;E7E*

k

CE4l*-,IM^,/*-,I9<6/,Ic

“+@<,jOW78;E032ö=>7”.<,/O0W4†,/4L2G0:=>CI2G,I. P k

=>CIˆ0W=•_<=WV–O:0WUf,/O:0W@<7”7”.<c“šCEP<O:,X¨4-@<7RK 4e2G@<,j,/4L2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9

*-,I4-_<Op2G4oM^7E*D2A@<0W4o=>7”.<,/O:c‡¶ó2i2G_<*V9<4o7E_f2

ƒ

2G@<CI2[0:9öM^CE6?2[CEO:O`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4 6I7E9A2G*V0WP<_¬2G,>=>7E*-,>7E*iO:,/4V4+2A7

2G@<,X,?ˆN<O:CE9<CI2A0W7E9¨7EM’2A@<,‡*-,I4-NQ7E9<4-,Ic “+@<,‡=>7”.<,/O:0:9<;jM^7E*2G@1,‡6/CI2A,/;E7E*V0W6ICEOš`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4e6/CE919<7I2³PQ,

M^_<*]2A@<,/*0W=>N<*V7h`<,/.

ƒ

4V0W916/,eP

k

_<4V0W91;‡.<_<=>=>0W,I4 789<,H6I7E9<4-0:.<,I*-4oCEO:OTNQ7E4-4V0WP<O:,e,/´Q,/62G4Vc[)+789<6/,I*-9<0:9<;

2G@<,H6/7E9A2G0:9_<7E_<4D`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4

ƒ

K,e7EP<4V,/*]`<,>9<7E9<4V0W;E910Wø<6ICE9A2[6/7”,.Y>6/0:,/9A2A4 M^78*4-78=[,e*V,/;E*V,/4V4-7E*V4-c[“+@<,

6/7E9A2A0W9_<7E_14(`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4n;8,?2•=>7E*-,oCI2V2G,/9A2A0W7E9³P

k

_<4V0W9<;[4-,I=>0WN<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6H=>7”.<,/O:4-c

“+@<,lOW78;E032+=[7”.<,IO

w-{I~

0:4(Ci4-NQ,/6I0WCEOa6ICE4-,l7EM‘2G@1,+;E,/9<,I*-CEO:0:\/,/.sOW0:9<,ICE* =>7B.<,IO

w

— ™›

ƒ

4-,I,l›Š6/)+_<O:O:CE;E@

®[Z,/O:.<,/*

ƒD{m°6E°E~

K @10W6h@q0W4l;E0p`a,I9bP

k œ

wx‹|}v~(y

¡

w€ ‚ }v~L,

(4)

density for variable 2

-2 0 2 4

X2

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

density

density for variable 4

0 2 4 6

X4

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

density for variable 3

0 2 4 6

X3

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

density

density for variable 5

0 2 4 6

X5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 6

0 10 20 30 40 50

X6

0 0.5 1

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

X8

0 0.5 1

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 7

0 10 20 30

X7

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 9

0 5 10

X9

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

T0W;E_1*-,

{

cR\o,/*V9<,/O.<,I9<4-0p2

k

,/4L2G0:=>CI2G,I4

ƒ

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4 52G7<

°Eƒ

,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9q.1CI2GC[4-,2Húc

(5)

density for variable 2

-1 0 1 2 3

X2

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

density

density for variable 4

-1 0 1 2 3

X4

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

density for variable 3

-1 0 1 2 3

X3

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

density

density for variable 5

0 1 2 3

X5

0 0.5 1

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 6

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

X6

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 8

0 1 2 3

X8

0 0.5 1 1.5

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 7

0 1 2 3

X7

0 0.5 1

density

(oversmoothed) density for variable 9

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

X9

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

density

’0:;E_<*V,'EcR\o,/*-91,/O.<,/914-0p2

k

,/4]2A0W=>CI2A,/4

ƒ

`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I452G7<

°Eƒ

,I4]2A0W=>CI2A0W7E9³.<CI2ACs4V,?2•üJc

(6)

X3

X4

X5

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

X2

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

X3

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

X4

X7

X8

X9

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0 1 2 3

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0 1 2 3

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0 1 2

X6

0 1 2 3

0 1 2 3

0 1 2 3

0 1 2

X7

0 1 2 3

0 1 2

X8

’0:;E_<*V,Ec d16/CI2V2G,/*VN<O:7I2G4

ƒ

`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4] ‹2G7^

w

_<N<NQ,/*eN<O:7I2

~

CE9<._

þ

2A7^

°¦w O:7RK5,I*

N<O:7I2

~Vƒ

,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9>.<CI2GCo4V,?2üJc<ôoP<4V,/*]`BCI2A0W789<4(6/7E*V*-,/4VN789<.<0:9<;l2A7`

ys{

CE*-,+,I=>N<@<CE4V0W\I,/.

0:9³P1OWCE6hUc

¶·9&2G@<,o4-NQ,/6I0WC8Oš6ICE4-, 7EMšC>P<0W91CE*

k

*V,/4VN7E914-,+K5, @<CR`a,

œ

wx†|}v~ yFuswxyÿ{‘|}v~L,

(7)

~''€Inwk{p‚qƒsP„ …ƒ†:‡‰ˆ:ŠŒ‹h†{ŒŠ {sPŽ{{{ vy‘:s‘:’ ~W“{{”0’ v•{sP{{–{{ŽL‘ {sP—{{{’ v•{sP’{

~'’ Šh‡˜†{™Œˆ:ˆ:™Uš {sP“{L‘:› ’{sP—{Ž ~W“{{”0— {sP’{›{’{Ž{“{› {sP’{Ž{{– “{sP{

~'— …IŠh‡‰™hšŒœ{Š:ˆŒ {sP{{“{› v•Ž{sP“{ ~W“{{”R‘ v•{sP’{Ž{—L‘{‘: {s‘:’L‘{‘ v•{sP–{

~`‘ v•{sP{–{’{{“{ {sP{L‘: v•{sP›{— ~W“{{”0Ž {sP“{›{{{–{Ž {sP—L‘:–{“ {sPŽ{’

~'Ž v•{sP{—{L‘:’{ {sP{{“{– v•{s‘:› ~W“{{”0– v•{sP“{›L‘:{“L‘ {sP—{–{“{ v•{s‘:

~'– Šh‡˜š{Uœ{hœŒ† {sP{{{› ’{sP{› ~W“{{”0› {s‘:–{’{“{“L‘ {sP—L‘:“{ “{sP—{Ž

~'› v•{sP“{—{›{{Ž{ {sP“{Ž{–{› v•{sP{ ~W“{{”0 …ƒš:‡‰ˆhœ™:žŒžhœ {sP–{—{›{ v•’{sP–{—

~' …IŠh‡˜œ{ŒŸ:ˆ:ŸŒŠ {sP“{{{ vy‘:sP—{ ~W“{{”0 {sP’{Ž{{“{{Ž {s‘{‘:›{ {sPŽ{

~' …ƒš:‡˜†:š™:Ÿ:ŸŒ {sP—{{›{› v•—{sP{– ~W“{{”0“{ v•{sP{Ž{“{Ž{{ {sP’{{“{’ v•{sP“{

~'“{{”’ v•{sP’{Ž{{’{{› {sP“L‘:{’ v•“{sP{Ž ~W’{{”0’ v•{sP’{’L‘{‘:{ {sP—{{{— v•{sP›{—

~'“{“{”’ …IŠh‡‰hšŒš:œ:†ž {sP“{’{›{› v•–{sP—{– ~W’{{”0— v•{sP“L‘:›{“{Ž{ {sP’{’{–{ v•{sP–{Ž

~'“{’{”’ v•{sP’{›{’{{{’ {sP“{–{{– v•“{sP–{ ~W’{{”R‘ {sPL‘:{{’{ {sP“L‘:{“ {sP—{—

~'“{—{”’ {sP’{—{{L‘{‘ {sP“{—{—{’ “{sP{ ~W’{“{”0’ {sP“{—{’{—{{ {sP—{Ž{“{ {sP—{

~'“L‘:”’ v•{sP—{—{–{–{{’ {sP’{—{—L‘ v•“{s‘{‘ ~W’{“{”0— Šh‡‰ž:ŸUœ{ŠU†{Š {sP“{{›{ ’{sP“{“

~'“{Ž{”’ Šh‡‰ž:ŒŸ:‹:ŠŒŸ {sP“{{—{Ž ’{sP{“ ~W’{’{”0’ v•{sP—{—{{’L‘{‘ {sP—{“{›{ v•“{sP{›

~'“{Ž{”— {sP—{—{’{{’{– {sP’{—{–{’ “{s‘:“ ~W’{’{”0— v•{sP’{“{“{Ž{—{› {sP’{›{–{ v•{sP›{›

~'“{Ž{”>‘ Šh‡˜œ:†Œš{ž:‹Œ‹ {sP’{Ž{{ ’{sP{ ~W’{’{”R‘ v•{sP{’{–{’{›{Ž {sP—L‘:›{ v•{sP{

~'“{Ž{”Ž {s‘:{’{“{Ž{ {sP—{—{{Ž “{s‘: ~W’{’{”0Ž v•{sP’{—{{—{—{ {sP—L‘:–{’ v•{sP–{›

~'“{Ž{”– Šh‡˜œ{Œ‹:ˆhšŠ {sP’{’{Ž{ —{s‘: ~W’{’{”0– v•{sP’L‘{‘:{L‘ {s‘:{Ž{ v•{sPŽ{

~'“{–{”’ Šh‡‰™:ŸŒ™hœ{ŒŠ {sP’L‘:{ ’{sP{ ~W’{’{”0› v•{sP{’{“{{›{’ {sP’{{Ž{ v•{sP{›

~'“{–{”— v•{sP{L‘:’{—{› {sP’L‘:–{— v•{sP{’ ~W’{’{”0 v•{sP{{{{—{“ {sP’{{{’ v•{sPL‘

~'“{–{”>‘ {sP—{“{Ž{’{{– {sP—{{{– “{sP{Ž ~W’{’{”0 {sP—{{{L‘: {sP’L‘:{› “{sPŽ{—

~'“{–{”Ž v•{sP{“{›{Ž{“{’ {sP’L‘:–{“ v•{sP{› ~W’{’{”0“{ v•“{sP–{{{’{{› “{sPL‘:Ž{ v•“{sP–{—

~'“{–{”– {sP“{{{{“{Ž {sP’{Ž{›{Ž {sP›{› ~W’{’{”0“{“ {sP{›{Ž{›{’{ {sP’{›{–{› {sP’{›

~'“{›{”’ v•{sP“L‘{‘{‘:“{ {sP’{“{’{Ž v•{sP–{ ~W’{—{”0’ v•{sP{{{{—{ {sP“{›{’{› v•{sP{

~'“{›{”— …ƒš:‡‰ŠhœŠ:™:‹ŒŠ {sP’{–{L‘ v•—{sP{ ~W’{—{”0— v•{sP’{Ž{Ž{“{{– {sP“{{{ v•“{sP’{

~'“{›{”>‘ v•{sP—{{—{{—L‘ {sP’{—{Ž{ v•“{sP–{› ~W’L‘:”0’ {sP—{{{–{{— {sP’{Ž{’{› “{sPŽ{Ž

~'“{›{”Ž Šh‡‰Ÿh†Œš{Šhšž {sP—{’{’{— ’{sP{–

~'“{›{”– …ƒš:‡‰Šh†Œœ{h†Ÿ {sP“L‘:’L‘ v•›{sP’{’

~'“{{”’ {sP“{–{Ž{›{{– {sP’{›{“{Ž {sP–{“

~'“{{”— {s‘:“{Ž{Ž{—{ {sP’{“{{— “{sP{

~'“{{”>‘ Šh‡˜œ{Œ:ˆh†™ {sP’{“L‘:Ž —{sP–{

~'“{{”Ž Šh‡‰‹:ˆŒ‹::ˆUœ {sP“{L‘{‘ ’{sP{“  ¡ –{“{“{

~'“{{”– {s‘:–{—{Ž{›{Ž {sP’{—{{ “{sP{— ¢zk{£{v•¢}e¤s v•“{“{{{sP–{’{›{

~'“{{”› Šh‡‰‹:ˆŒ:ž:ŠU† {sP’{Ž{›{ ’{sP’{ ¥7imxePbLp}nwi ’{—{{{sP’{Ž{Ž{–

“šCEP<O:,c8cDùn,/4-_1O32A47EM¼2G@<,(™7E;E0p2

û

4]2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9<c

û

4]2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9•.<CI2GCn4-,2JüDc”üD7EOW. 6/7”,.Y>6I0W,I9G2A4

CE*V,i4-0:;E9<0:ø<6/CE9A2HCI20

D c

“+@<,†4-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6qO:7E;E0p2³=>7B.<,IO2G@1CI2eK5,³6/789<4-0:.<,/*>@<,I*-,†;E,I9<,/*VCEOW0:\/,I4o2A@<,†OW0:9<,ICE*eCE*-;8_<=>,/9A2

€ ‚ }

2G7[C[N1CE*]2A0WCEOOW0:9<,/C8*nC8*-;E_<=>,I9G2

œ

wx†|}gžVŸ ~ y

¡ ¢

€ ‚

}£t¥¦wŸ ~-§

“+@<0:4[;8,/9<,I*-CEO:0W\I,/.¦N<CE*]2A0WC8O+OW0:9<,/C8*e=[7”.<,IO

w

— ˜™›

~

CEO:O:7hK 4>_<4i2G7j.<,I4-6I*-0:P,e2G@<,†0:9<©<_<,I9<6/,³7EMnC

N<CE*L2

Ÿ

78M+2A@<,Š,ˆN1OWCE91CI2G7E*

k

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4‡0:9Cv9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6XKC

k c ª,/*V,

ƒ ¡ w«E~

0W4‡CvU9<7RK 9

M^_<9<62G0:7E9

ƒ¯€

0W4[CE9 _19<U9<7RK 9 N<CE*VCE=>,?2G,I*o`<,/62G7E*

ƒ

CE9<.

¥¦w«E~

0W4[CE9Ž_<9<U9<7RK 9 M^_<916?2G0:7E9<c “+@<,

(8)

€ ¥¦w«E~ k

­_<CE4-0:O:0WUf,/O:0W@<7”7”.b=>,?2A@<7B.³N<*V7EN784-,/.³0:9qd<,`a,I*-0:9<0®ÿdf2GC89<0W4LK5C8OW0:4

wV{I°E°E±8~

c

‰ ,oK 0WO:O_<4-,•2A@<,‹— ˜(™š› ,/4]2A0W=>CI2A7E*H=>CE0:9<O

k

C84HCE9Œ,ˆN<OW78*-CI2A7E*

k

2G7”7EO(0W97E_<*HN1*-CE62G0:6/CEO6/*V,/.<0p2

4-6I7E*-0:9<;g4-0p2G_1CI2G0:7E9<cŽ“+@<,/*V,/M^7E*V,HK5,†6I7E9<4-0:.<,I*2G@<,‡— ˜(™š› M^78*&4-,`a,/*VCEO+7EM’2G@1,‹=>,?2G*V0W6H`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4

4-,IN<CE*-Cm2G,/O

k

C84K5,IOWOJC84eM^7E*&6/78=HP<0:9<CI2A0W7E914e7EM’2G@<,I=[c¦ú4&4VCE0:.ŽPQ,/M^78*-,

ƒ

K,‡7E9<O

k

6I7E9<4-0:.<,I*i`BCE*V03S

CEP<O:,/4R2G7?2G7ePQ,i_<4-,I.eK 0p2G@10W9†Ce9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6iM^_<916?2G0:7E9†PQ,/6/C8_<4-,i7EM<2A@<,i­_<CE4-0¦V–.<0:4-6I*-,2G,

4]2A*-_<62G_<*V,i7EM

þ

2A7]

°

cR–7E*¯0W914]2GC89<6/,

ƒ

K @<,/9&K,i0W916/O:_<.<,D`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,We0W9‹Ce917E9<O:0W9<,ICE*KC

k‘ƒ

2G@1,

N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6oO:7E;E0p2 =>7B.<,IOY0W4l=>7”.<0Wø1,/.e2G7

uswxFy {‘|}v~ y  ¥§”wÄ}+§A~Y£

GIH

JLKEG(¨Jª©K

§ € ‚ J } J

K @<,/*V,oCsNQ7E4-4V0WP1OW, 0W9A2A,/*-6I,/Nf2H0:4n6I7E9A2GCE0:9<,I.q0:9>2A@<,oM^_<9<62G0:7E9

¥§”w]«E~

c

“C8P<OW,$‹6/789G2ACE0:9<457E9<O

k

2G@<,•N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6&6I7B,(Y>6/0:,/9A2G4iM^7E*(2G@<,•N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6HCE9<.Š4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6

,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G,/4nM^7E*T`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4o2A7<

°

cl“+@<,o6/78OW_<=>9q@<,/CE.1,/.bP

™š78;E032Ar>*-,/NQ,/Cm2G4’2G@<,oN<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6

OW78;E032,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I4DM^7E*$2A@<,M^78*=>7”.<,/O8K 0p2G@ `1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4c +2G70

±

cD“+@<,*V,/4L257EM2G@<,n6/78OW_<=>9<4¯6/7E*V*-,S

4-NQ7E9<.•2A72G@1,54-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6i,/4]2A0W=>CI2A,/4TK @<,I*-,DK,5øf2V2G,/.H2A@<7E4V,¯`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4J917E9<N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6/CEO:O

k

K @<0:6h@bCE*V,i@<,/CE.10W9<;i2G@1, 6I7EO:_<=>9<4-c

Z7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6o0:9

!nC8*-0:CEP<O:, ™7E;E0p2 ±

±Eƒ

ƒ

±Eƒ

6I7E9<4L2GCE9A2 ¬­7®°¯N±³² V V V V V V

±7®°­N´³µ V ±7®°­³´N¶ ±"®°­N´7· ±7®°­³´N¶ ±7®°­N­N¸ ¹

¬±7®°´7·zµ ¬•±7®P´7·´ V ¬•±"®°´7·´ ¬•±7®°´"·¯ ¬±7®°´N±N¸ ¬±7®°¶NºNº

± S c

S c

S c

V S c

V V

S c 6 S c { S c

S c ± V V V

þ

±7®»·¸³¸ ±"®°­N­N¶ ±7®»·zºN¶ ±"®»·ºN± ±7®»·zµNµ

c {IýEþ

±7®»·¸N¸

ý S c { 6 S c { 6 S c

{I±

S c { { S c

{I±Eþ

S c {

S c { 6

6

¬±7®°µNº³± ¬•±7®PµNµNµ ¬±7®°¸N±³± ¬•±"®°µN¸N¯ ¬•±7®°µ³ºN¯ ¬±7®°µNºN­ ¬±7®°µNºN¯

°

¬·N®°­7·z² ¬.·N®P­N­N¸ ¬·N®°­7·z¶ ¬.·³®°­N­N­ ¬.·N®°­"·¯ ¬·N®°­7·´ ¬·N®°­7·²

“šCEP<O:,c8c˜CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W66/7”,.Y>6/0:,/9A2A40:9•N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6(CE9<.o4-,I=>0WN<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6¯O:7E;E0p2

ƒ

`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,I4

52A7+

° c û

4]2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9³.<CI2AC[4V,?2•üJcYüJ78OW.e`BCEOW_1,/4lCE*-,o4V0W;E910Wø<6ICE9A2&Cm20

D c

¶ó2H2A_<*-9<4e78_f2

ƒ

2A@<CI2‡C8OWO¯6/7”,.Y>6/0:,/9A2G45`BCE*

k

O:032V2GO:,‹7R`a,I*2G@<,‹.10W´Q,/*V,/9A2³,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G,/4Vc¦“+@10W4e@<78OW.<4eC84

K5,IOWOM^7E*¯2A@<,/0:*54-0:;E9<0:ø<6ICE9<6/,

w

.<,?2A,/*V=[0:9<,I.tP

k

C?¼½VE2G,I4]2

~

c !nCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4

±

CE9<. ‡CE*V,&6/7E914]2GC89G2AO

k

0W914-0:;E9<0:ø<6/CE9A2J7h`<,/*CEOWO,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I4-cJª,/9<6I,

ƒ

2A@<,

k

CE*V,¯0:9A2G,I*-,/4L2G0:9<;i6/C89<.<0:.<CI2G,I4TM^7E*šCn9<7E9<N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6

=>7B.<,IOW0:9<;D`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4K @<0:6h@gCE*V,H4-0:;E9<0:ø<6ICE9A2e=>C

k

CEO:*-,ICE.

k

6/C8Nf2G_<*V,HC‹O:7I2H7EM’0:9<M^7E*V=[Cm2G0:7E9b7E9+

P k

2G@<,oN<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6o0W9<6IOW_14-0:7E9b0:9A2G7i2G@<,o=>7B.1,/O:c

“+@<,ö4-,/=>0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6tOW78;E032t=>7”.<,/Oo0:4q,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I.FP

k

4-,/=>0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6t=>CIˆ0W=•_<=5ShO:0WUf,/O:0W@<7”7”.

ƒ

CX6I7E=HP<0:9<CI2A0W789Š7EM’7E*V.<0:9<CE*

k

CE91.Š4-=>7”7I2G@<,I.Š=>CIˆ0W=•_<=5ShO:0WUf,/O:0W@17B7”.<cH“+@1,&øf2-2A,/.Š6I_<*]`<,/4iM^7E* 2G@1,

9<7E9<N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6(6/7E=>NQ7E9<,I9G2A4TCE6I6/7E*V.<0:9<;(2A7“šCEP<O:,c6ICE9•PQ,(M^7E_<9<. 0:9T’0:;E_<*V,/4

±

M^78*a2A@<,(=>CE*-;E0:9<CEO

øf2G4

w

`1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4  2G7 n4-,/N1CE*-CI2A,/O

k

CE4<2G@<,9<7E9<N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6/C8O‘6/7E=>NQ7E9<,/9A2

~

CE9<.0’0:;E_<*V,

þ

M^7E*<2G@1,

P<0p`1C8*-0:CI2G,4-_<*VM^CE6/,

w

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4>

±

CE9<.o %?7E0:9A2GO

k

9<7E9<N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6/CEO:O

k

0:9<6/O:_<.<,I.

~

clú.1.<032A0W789<CEO:O

kEƒ

(9)

Variable X2

-1 0 1 2 3

X2

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 b2*X2,m(X2), logit’s

Variable X3

-1 0 1 2 3

X3

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 b3*X3,m(X3), logit’s

Variable X4

0 1 2 3

X4

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 b4*X4,m(X4), logit’s

Variable X5

0 1 2 3

X5

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 b5*X5,m(X5), logit’s

’0:;E_<*V,

±

cF›ŠCE*V;E0W91CEOl.<,/NQ,/9<.1,/9<6I0W,I4

ƒ

`1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4+ ³2A7*EcF“+@<0:6hU8,I*‹P<_<O:OW,2G4s6/7E*V*-,?S

4-NQ7E9<.[2G7‹=>7E*V,&7EP<4V,/*]`BCI2A0W789<450:9gC‹6/O:CE4-4Vce˜TCE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6eOW7E;8032&øf2G4

w

2G@10W9g.<C84-@<,I.öO:0:9<,/CE*

M^_<9<62G0:7E9<4

~

C89<.q— ˜(™›O:7E;E0p2•øf2G4

w

2G@<0:6hU‡4-7EO:0:.q6I_<*]`<,/4

~ c

’0:;E_<*-,I4

±

CE9<.X‡*-,I©<,/62i2G@<,eC86?2G_1CEO’.<,IN,I9<.<,/916/,[7EM$2G@<,e*V,/4-NQ7E9<4V,W7E9X`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4'e2A7)

° c

‰

,n@<CR`a,N<O:7I2-2A,/.X,ICE6h@•`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,n*-,I4]2G*V0W62G,I.H2G7

1

ƒ

E5

w

0:cW,IcT2G@<,.<CI2GC M^*-78= 4-CE=>N<O:,ü

~

`a,I*-4V_<42G@1,

OW78;E032A4

OW78;E032

y

OW78; ¾

{¿3

¾

K @<,/*V,

¾

CE*-,2G@<,5*V,/O:CI2G0p`a,iM^*V,/­_<,I9<6/0:,/4nM^7E*

xyz{

c û

4V4-,I9G2A0WC8OWO

k‘ƒ

2A@<,/4V, O:7E;E0p2G4DCE*-,578Pf2GCE0:9<,I.‡M^*-7E=

6/O:CE4-4V,/4578M’0W.1,/9A2G0:6/CEO*-,ICEOW0:\/Cm2G0:7E9<4-c•¶·9Š6/C84-,n2A@<CI2

¾

KCE4

78*

{Iƒ

4-,`a,I*-CEO’*V,/CEO:0:\/CI2A0W7E914@<CR`a,HP,I,/9

4-_<=>=>CE*V0W\I,/.b0:9A2G7[7E9<,o6/O:CE4V4-c@–7E*+CEO:O1`1C8*-0:CEP<O:,/4lP<_f2$

ý

2A@<0W4l7E91O

k

6I7E9<6I,/*-9144-0:9<;EO:,J`BCEOW_1,/4-c

“+@<,iN<O:7I2G4D7EM<2G@<,i=>CE*V;E0W91CEO.<,IN,I9<.<,I9<6/0:,/4nM^7E*š`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4R

þ

2A7]

°

4-@17hK2G@<Cm2J2G@<,*-,/C8OW0:\/CI2A0W789<4

,/4V4-,/9A2A0WCEO:O

k

6/7E9<6I,/9A2G*VCI2G,o0:9‡7E9<,D`BCEO:_<,/clª,/9<6I,+K,i.<0:.†9<7I2 øf2oC>9<789<N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6iM^_19<6?2A0W7E9†@<,I*-,Ic

(10)

Variable X6

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

X6

0 0.5 1 b6*X6,logit’s

Variable X7

0 1 2 3

X7

-2 -1 0 1 2 b7*X7,logit’s

Variable X8

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

X8

-2 -1 0 1 2 b8*X8,logit’s

Variable X9

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

X9

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 b9*X9,logit’s

’0:;E_<*V,`Ec¯›ŠCE*-;80W9<C8OB.<,IN,I9<.<,I9<6/0:,/4

ƒ

`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4"

þ

2A7W

°

c¯“+@<0:6hU8,/*(P<_1OWO:,?2A4 6/7E*V*-,/4VN789<.

2G7[=>7E*-, 7EP<4V,/*L`1Cm2G0:7E9<40:9bCs6/O:CE4-4Vci˜TCE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6HO:7E;E0p2Hø¬2G4

w

2G@<0:9b.1CE4-@<,I.

~ c û

4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9

.<CI2AC>4-,?2•üJc

“7jCE4V4-,I4-4

ƒ

K @<,?2A@<,/*52A@<,†4-,/=>0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6³øf2³7E_¬2GNQ,/*-M^78*-=>42G@<,†N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6‡OW78;E032³78*e9<7I2

ƒ

K,

@<CR`a,‡CŠ9_<=•P,I*e7EMl4]2ACI2G0:4]2A0W6ICEOD6h@<C8*-CE62G,/*V0W4L2G0:6/4VcÀ–7E*n2A@<,‹CEPQ7R`a,‹,I4]2A0W=>CI2A,/.Ž=[7”.<,IOW4

ƒ

2G@<,

k

CE*V,

4-_<=>=>CE*V0W\I,/.b0:9³“CEP1OW,

± c

“+@<,o.<,?`0:CE9<6I,•0:4l=[0:9_<4 2·K 0W6I,l2A@<,i,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G,/.qOW78;(V–O:0WUf,/O:0W@<7”7”.q7EMa2G@1,iøf2-2A,/.³=[7”.<,IOY0W9³7E_<*+6ICE4-,Ic

–7E*2G@1, N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6o6/CE4V,

ƒ

2G@1, .1,/;E*V,/,/4n7EMšM^*-,I,/.<7E=Á%?_<4]2•.<,I9<7I2G,

ÂIÃ

yÅÄ=3Æ

K @<,/*V,

Ä

0:4–2A@<,(4-CE=>N<O:,D4V0W\I,¯CE91.

Æ

2G@<,9_<=HPQ,/*7EM1,I4]2G0:=>CI2G,I.HN<C8*-CE=>,?2A,/*V4-cJ¶·9+2G@<,4-,I=>0WN<C8*-CE=>,?2VS

*-0:6&6/C84-,

ƒ

C†6I7E*-*V,/4-NQ7E9<.10W9<;†9_<=•P,I*i7EM(.<,/;E*V,/,I4 78MM^*V,/,I.<7E=²6ICE9gPQ,eCEN<N<*V7hˆ0:=>CI2G,I.<coÇi,`0:CE9<6I,

CE9<.

w

C8N<N<*-7Rˆ0:=[Cm2G,

~

.<,I;E*-,I,/4 7EM¯M^*V,/,I.<7E=¸7EMY2G@1,[N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6[CE9<.‹2G@<,>4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6X=>7”.<,/O

6/CE9sP,_<4-,I.H2G7•6/7E9<4L2G*V_<6?25C&OW0:U8,IOW0:@<7”7B.X*-CI2A0W7l2G,/4L2D2A7H6/78=[N1CE*-,P7I2A@X=>7”.<,/O:4

w

4V,/,üJ_&%?C

ƒ

ªCE4L2G0:,

(11)

X4, X5 nonparametric

1 2

3

’0:;E_<*V,

þ

cJüJ0p`BCE*-0:CI2G,l9<789<N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6n4-_1*-M^CE6I,nM^78*Y`BCE*V0WC8P<OW,I4¿

±Eƒ

8c

û

4]2G0:=>CI2G0:7E9[.<CI2AC

4-,2•üJc

®„“+0:P<4V@<0W*VCE9<0

ƒ{I°E°È

݃_<OWO:,/*

ƒn{I°E°Eý8~

c>“+@<,>7EPf2ACE0W91,/.j4-0:;E9<0:ø<6/C89<6/,>O:,?`a,IOW4oM^*V7E=2A@<,/4V,2G,/4L2G4oCE*V,

.<,/917I2G,I.bP

k9Ê

c’0:9<CEO:O

kEƒ

K, OW0:4]2A,/.[2A@<, N<4-,I_<.<7Xù

G

`BCEO:_<,I4

ƒ

CE9³CE9<CEO:7E;i2G752G@<, O:0W9<,ICE*n*-,/;8*-,/4V4-0:7E9

6/7”,.Y>6/0:,/9A2H7EMš.<,?2A,/*-=>0:9<CI2A0W7E91c

¶ó2J0:4T78PG`0:7E_<42A74V,/,2A@<CI2+=>7”.<,/O:4T6I7E9A2GCE0:9<0:9<;¯`BCE*V0WCEP1OW,# 50:9n2A@<,D9<789<N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6DN<CE*]2D6/789<4-0:.<,/*LS

CEP<O

k

.1,/6/*V,/CE4V,D2G@<,i.1,?`0WC89<6/,iCE91.‡0W9<6I*-,ICE4-,J2G@1,56/7”,.Y>6/0:,/9A2 7EM.<,2G,I*-=>0W91CI2G0:7E9†ù

G

c+ú6/6I7E*-.10W9<;8O

kEƒ

2G@<,4-0:;E9<0:ø<6/CE916/,iO:,?`a,IOYM^7E*š2A@<,¯2A,/4]2i7EMN<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6¯`<,/*V4-_<4l9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6i=>7”.<,/O:0W91;e.<,/6I*-,/C84-,/4Vc

¶·9tN1CE*]2A0W6I_<OWC8*

ƒ

032[0:4oP,IOW7RKË

D

M^7E*D2G@1,[PQ7I2A@ö=>7”.<,/O:4 0W9<6IOW_1.<0W91;=qCEO:7E9<,>CE91.ö0:9<6IOW_<.10W9<;=

±Eƒ

W%?7E0:9A2GO

k

0W9³C>9<7E9<N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6+K5C

k c

Z7E9<N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6o0W9

™7E;E0p2 ±

±Eƒ

ƒ

±Eƒ

Çi,`0WCE916/,

’{—{{{sP’{– ’{—{{—{sP“{– ’{—{{Ž{sP{– ’{—{{“{sP“{› ’{—{{–{sP{› ’{—{{“{s‘: ’{—{{“{sP{–

.1M

–{“{“{{sP{ –{“{“{—{sP›{ –{“{“{—{s‘:Ž –{“{“{—{s‘:’ –{“{“{—{sP—{– –{“{{{sPŽ{– –{“{{›{sP“{›

Ê Ì

{sP’{“{’ {s‘:Ž{ {sP“{—{ ŠU‡‰Šh†{™ Šh‡‰ŠŒ™:ˆ {sP{L‘

N14-,/_1.<7sù

G

“L‘:sP–{{Í “L‘:sP{{Í “L‘:sP{’{Í “L‘:sP{–{Í “{Ž{sP“{“{Í “{Ž{sP—{“{Í “{Ž{sP’{{Í

“šCEP<O:,

±

c‡df2GCI2A0W4L2G0:6/CEO 6h@1CE*-CE62G,I*-0:4]2G0:6/4•0W9öN<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6[C89<.t4V,/=>0:N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6[OW78;E032[ø¬2G4-c

û

4]2A0W=>CI2A0W7E9³.<CI2AC>4-,?2•üJcYüD7EOW.e`BCEO:_<,/4lCE*V, 4V0W;89<0Wø16/CE9A2HCI20

D c

“+@<,D.10W´Q,/*V,/9A2+øf2A46ICE9&PQ,¯6I7E=>N<CE*V,/.&P

k

OW7”7EU0:9<;CI2D=>0W4V6/O:CE4-4V0Wø16/CI2A0W7E9e*VCI2G,I4-c#Q78*a2A@<,š`BCEO:0:.<CI2G0:7E9

ƒ

2G@<,bN<*-7R`0W.1,/.".<CI2GCv6I7E=>N<*-0:4-,jC¨4-_1P<4-CE=>N<O:,

w

.<Cm2GCv4-,2ö)

~

K @<0:6h@¨KCE4‡9<7I2ö0:9<6IOW_<.1,/."0W9Œ2G@1,

,/4L2G0:=[Cm2G0:7E9<c ‰ ,o_<4V,J2G@<0:4(`BCEO:0:.<CI2G0:7E9†4-C8=[N1OW,+2G7>,?`BCEO:_<CI2A,oCEOWOY,I4]2A0W=>CI2A7E*-4Vc

(12)

Performance X2

0 0.5 1

P(S<s)

0 0.5 1 P(S<s|Y=1)

Performance X4

0 0.5 1

P(S<s)

0 0.5 1 P(S<s|Y=1)

Performance X3

0 0.5 1

P(S<s)

0 0.5 1 P(S<s|Y=1)

Performance X5

0 0.5 1

P(S<s)

0 0.5 1 P(S<s|Y=1)

’0:;E_<*V,

ý

c˜T,I*-M^7E*V=[C89<6/,†6/_1*]`a,I4

ƒ

N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6†OW78;E032

w

P<O:CE6hUv.<CE4V@<,/.

~

CE91.¦4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CIS

=>,?2A*-0:6&OW78;E032&=>7B.<,IOW4

w

2G@<0:6hUb;8*-,

k~Vƒ

K 032A@X`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/4WH2G7

w

4V,/N<CE*VCI2G,IO

k~

0:9<6IOW_<.1,/.

9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6ICEOWO

k

cÎ!nCEO:0:.<CI2G0:7E9³.<CI2AC[4V,?2•)+c

“+@<,&=>0:4-6/O:CE4V4-0:ø<6/CI2A0W789ö*VCI2G,I456/C89ŠP,•N<0:6?2G_1*-,/.jP

k

N,I*-M^7E*V=[C89<6/,•6/_<*L`a,/4

w

™7E*-,I9<\&6/_1*]`a,I4

~

ce“+@<,

N,I*-M^7E*V=>CE9<6/,t6/_<*L`a,v0:4Š.<,Iø<9<,/. P k

N<OW7m2-2G0:9<;t2A@<,N1*-7EP<C8P<0WO:0p2

k

7EM&78P<4-,I*]`BCI2G0:7E9<4g6IOWC84-4-0:ø<,I.µC84

;E7”7B.1r

uswQÏ9ÐÒÑG~

`a,I*-4-_14(2A@<,•6I7E9<.<0p2G0:7E9<C8OY*-,/O:CI2A03`<,•M^*V,/­_<,/916

k

7EM7EP<4-,I*]`BCI2A0W7E914n6IOWC84-4-0:ø<,I.ŠCE4

;E7”7B.1re6/7E9<.1032A0W7E91,/.

7E9

P<CE.1r

uXwÓÏ*ЫÑB|3xFyz{I~ª,

ª,I*-,

ƒÔÏ

.<,/917I2G,I4(2A@<,o4-6/78*-,JK @<0:6h@Š,/­_<CEO:4l0W9e2G@1, N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6oOW78;E032•=>7”.<,/O

Ïöy GIH

JªKEG

€ ‚

J } J

£t€NM

(13)

Ïy¦¥§”wÄ}+§A~Y£

GIH

JLKEG(¨Jª©K

§ € J } J

K @<,/9³øf2V2G0:9<;>9<7E9<N<C8*-CE=>,?2A*-0:6/CEO:O

k‘ƒ

M^7E*+0:9<4]2ACE9<6/,Ic

“+@<,eN<*V7EP<CEP<0:O:032

k

`1C8OW_<,

uXwÓÏÐÕÑB|xzy…{I~

0:4iC‹=>,/C84-_<*V,[M^78*=>0W4V6/O:CE4-4V0Wø16/CI2A0W7E9tCE9<.X2A@”_14D2G7‡PQ,

=>0W9<0:=>0W\I,/.<c ª,I9<6/,

ƒ

7E91,•NQ,/*VM^7E*-=>CE9<6I,H6I_<*]`<,H0:42G7sP, N<*V,/M^,/*V*-,I.s2G7sCE9<7I2A@<,/*

ƒ

K @<,I9Š0p2&0:4=>7E*V,

.<7RK 9AK5CE*V.<4n4-@<CENQ,/.1c

¶·9HN<*VCE6?2A0W6I,

ƒ

2A@<,DN<*V7EP<CEP10WO:032

kXuswQÏ9ЫÑG~

0:4T*V,/N<O:CE6/,I.eP

k

2A@<,D*V,/O:CI2G0p`a,DM^*-,/­_<,I9<6

k

7EM<6IOWCE4V4-0:ø<6/Cm2G0:7E9<4

x yÖöw{

;E7”7”.<r

~

;E03`<,/9jCH2G@1*-,/4V@<7EO:.

Ñ

c>“+@<,eC89<CEO:7E;‹0:4i.<7E9<,&M^78*

uXwÓÏÀÐÖÑB|x y{I~

c ‰ ,e@1Ch`<,

6/7E=>N<_¬2G,/.‡NQ,/*VM^7E*-=>CE916/,56I_<*]`<,/4lM^7E*DPQ7I2A@•2G@<,,/4]2A0W=>CI2A0W789‡.<CI2GCH4-,?2iüCE9<.•2A@<,¯`BCEO:0W.<Cm2G0:7E9‹.<CI2AC

4-,2H)+c

Performance X4, X5

0 0.5 1

P(S<s)

0 0.5 1 P(S<s|Y=1)

’0:;E_<*V,

6

cD˜,/*VM^7E*-=>CE9<6I,+6/_<*L`a,I4

ƒ

N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6+O:7E;E0p2

w

P<OWC86hU&.<CE4V@<,/.

~

C89<.e4-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2VS

*-0:6[OW7E;8032s=>7B.1,/O

w

2G@10W6hUj;E*V,

k~-ƒ

K 032A@q`BCE*-0:CEP<O:,/40

±Eƒ w

%?7E0:9A2GO

k~

0:9<6/O:_<.<,I.v9<7E9<N<C8*-CIS

=>,?2A*-0:6/CEO:O

k

cÎ!nCEOW0:.<CI2A0W789q.<Cm2GC>4-,2H)+c

’0:;E_<*-,

ý

6/7E=>N<CE*V,/452G@1,‡N,I*-M^7E*V=[C89<6/,‡7EM’2A@<,‡N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6†O:7E;E0p2†øf2†C89<.Š2G@<,‡4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6

OW78;E032•øf2•7EP¬2GCE0:9<,/.qP

k

4-,/N1CE*-CI2A,/O

k

0W9<6IOW_1.<0W91; i2G7+ [9<7E9<N1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6/C8OWO

k

c5¶·91.<,/,I.

ƒ

2A@<, 4-,/=>0pS

N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6e=>7”.<,/O M^78*D2G@<,e0:9<©<_<,I9<6/,s7EM¿ †0:=[N1*-7R`a,I4n2G@1,eN,I*-M^7E*V=[C89<6/,5K 0p2G@ö*-,/4VN,I6?2 2G7&2G@1,

N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6g=>7”.<,/O:c“+@<,g4-,I=[0:N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6ö=>7”.<,/O:4†M^7E* 2A@<,g0:9<©<_<,I9<6/,j7EM Š2A7_

±

.<7v9<7m2

0W=>N<*V7R`a,+2G@<,oNQ,/*-M^78*-=>CE9<6I,+K 0p2G@³*-,I4-NQ,/622A7i2A@<,oN<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6o=>7”.<,/O

ƒ

2G@<78_<;E@<c

’0:;E_<*-,

6

6/7E=>N<CE*V,/452G@1,‡N,I*-M^7E*V=[C89<6/,‡7EM’2A@<,‡N<CE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6†O:7E;E0p2†øf2†C89<.Š2G@<,‡4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6

OW78;E032iøf2o7EPf2ACE0:9<,/.†P

k

%?7E0:9A2GO

k

0:9<6/O:_<.<0:9<;+

±Eƒ

>9<7E91N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6ICEOWO

k

cl“+@<0:4+NQ,/*-M^78*-=>CE9<6I,i6/_<*L`a,

0W=>N<*V7R`a,/4i`a,I*-4V_<4s917E9<N<CE*VCE=>,?2A*-0:6/CEO:O

k

øf2-2A0W9<;j7E91O

k

±Eƒ

P<_f2³4V@<7RK 4sO:,/4V4[NQ7RK5,I*5`a,/*V4-_<4[øf2V2G0:9<;

(14)

k ƒ k k k

0W91©<_<,/916/, 7EM7s789<O

k c

ú*-=>0W91;E,/*

ƒ

— c

ÈBû 91CE6h@<,

ƒ

Çic

È

üJ7E9<91,

ƒ

“+c

wV{I°E°Eý8~-ƒ

ú9<C8O

k

\/0:9<;5)+*V,/.<0p2¯ù0:4-U'ÇiCm2GC ú¨)+7E=>N<CE*V0W4V7E9

7EM™š78;E0W4L2G0:6Çi0:4-6I*-0:=>0W9<Cm2G0:7E9

ƒ

)+OWCE4V4-0:ø<6/Cm2G0:7E9‹“š*-,/,ú9<C8O

k

4-0:4

ƒ

CE9<.Q,I,/.<M^78*]KCE*-.Z,?2·K7E*VU”4Vc

×RØ.Ù Ú³ÛhÜQÝzÜPޕØ.ßÝzàŒáÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜPޕåLãT·­

ƒ

d<7E91.<,/*VP<CE9<.

I{(<æ

CE@<*V,oú+—ÿ—•™›Šr

ƒ °

(VN

{(

c

üJ_ä%?C

ƒ

úc

È

ªCE4L2G0:,

ƒ

“+c

È

“+0:P<4-@10W*VCE9<0

ƒ

ùc

w-{m°6E°E~Vƒ

™0:9<,/CE*¯4-=>7”7I2G@<,I*-4JC89<.‹CE.<.1032A03`<,i=[7”.<,IOW4

w

K 0p2G@

.<0:4-6I_<4-4V0W789

~-č

ß-ßÝzàã<ؕèáÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜPޕåLã$·µ

ƒY±

ƒVNEc

— 7E_<*V0W,I*-7E_fˆ

ƒ

)+c

wV{I°E°E±E~Vƒ

)+*-,I.<0p2Hd16/7E*V0W9<;

ƒ

d<6/*V0WNf2Ac

ªCE9<.

ƒ

Çic

æ cÈ ª,/9<O:,

kEƒ

‰ c û c

wV{I°E°EýE~Vƒ

d¬2GCI2A0W4L2G0:6/CEO)+O:CE4-4V0Wø<6ICI2G0:7E9e›Š,2G@<7”.<40W9•)+7E9<4-_1=[,I*T)+*V,/.<0p2

d<6I7E*-0:9<;lC>ùn,?`0W,K c?éêhë$êháÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜÓê`áØ{å{ê

ç

·¯³±

ƒ

E(VN

±a{

c

ª?ÉCE*-.<O:,

ƒ ‰ cÈ

›ŠC8=[=>,I9

ƒ û cÈ

›ÀÉ_<O:O:,/*

ƒ

›Šc

wV{I°E°6E~Vƒ

“š,/4L2G0:9<;†˜TCE*VCE=>,?2G*V0W6n`a,/*V4-_<4od<,I=>0WN<C8*-CE=>,?2VS

*V0W6³›Š7”.<,/O:OW0:9<;ö0W9Ž— ,/9<,I*-CEO:0W\I,/.¦™š0:9<,ICE*>›Š7B.1,/O:4-c[é:Ø.Û:ìíßÝzà>ؕè=ÜPî³ï

ç

ÙïLìíޕåmÝ.ßÀáÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜPޕåmÝzà

ç

ãmãäØ{åLޕÝzÜâޕØ.ß)ºN¶

ƒ{I±Eþ–{

V

{I±EýE±

c

ª,/9<O:,

kEƒ

‰ c û cÈ ªCE91.

ƒ

Çic

æ c

w-{I°8°EþE~-ƒ

ú Æ

Sh91,/CE*V,/4]2VSh9<,I0W;8@”PQ7E* 6IOWCE4V4-0:ø<,/*(M^7E*CE4-4V,/4V4-0:9<;•6I7E9<4V_<=>,/*

6I*-,/.1032H*-0:4-Uc@áÜQÝzÜPÞyãäÜPޕåLޕÝ.ß´N²

ƒYýEý V °

Ec

›Š6I)+_<O:OWCE;8@

ƒ

˜c

È

Z,IOW.1,/*

ƒæ cúc

w-{m°6E°E~Vƒcð

ïLßïLì.ÝzàÞyñäïmòTóÔÞyßïmÝ.ìô*Ø{òzï{à㠃

!n78OWcÔ

ý

7EM"ô*Ø.ßØLõ{ì(ݕڳîzã

Ø.ß^áÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜPޕåLã+Ý.ßò

ç

ÚzÚ"àޕïmò$ö¿ì(Øz÷mÝz÷LޕàޕÜâø

ƒ

>,/.<9

ƒ

)+@<C8N<=>CE9qC89<.qªCEO:O

ƒ

™7E91.<7E9<c

›ÀÉ_<O:O:,/*

ƒ

›Šc

È

ù?É7E91\

ƒ

üJc

È

ª?ÉCE*-.1OW,

ƒ ‰ c

wV{I°E°Eý8~-ƒ

)+7E=>N<_¬2G,/*VCE4-4V0W4L2G,I.‡d<,/=>0:N<CE*-C8=[,2G*V0W6n—•,I9<,/*VCEO:0W\I,/.

™0:9<,/CE*X›Š7B.1,/O:4-cË×RØ.Ù Ú³ÛhÜQÝzÜPޕØ.ßÝzàÎáÜQÝzÜPÞyãäÜPޕåLã^·z­

ƒ

d<7E91.<,/*VP<CE9<.

I{ƒùæ

CE@<*V,bú+——•™›Šr

ƒ

{

E(V

{Iý 8c

›ÀÉ_<O:O:,/*’›Šc

w-{I°8°EýE~-ƒ

)+7E=>N<_f2A,/*»V–CE4-4V0W4L2G,I.s— ,/9<,I*-CEO:0:\/,/.>˜CE*]2A0WCEOB™0W9<,ICE*T›b7B.<,IOW4

ƒ

0W98#ö¿ì(Ø{åmïmïmò.Þyß-õ{ã

ؕèúßÜQïLì½è.Ýzåmï:ûýüzþ­Nº³ÿ7·

ƒ

ª78_<4]2A7E9

ƒ

“š,?ˆCE4

ƒ

{

VN

c

d<,`a,I*-0:9<0

ƒ

“+cQúc

È

d¬2GCE9<0:4]KCEO:0W4

ƒæ c— c

w-{I°8°E±E~-ƒ

_<CE4V03SROW0:U8,IOW0:@<7”7B.‹,I4]2A0W=>CI2A0W7E9‡0:9‹4V,/=>0WN1CE*-CE=>,2G*-0:6

=>7”.<,/O:4

ƒ

éØ.یìíßÝzàؕè$ÜPî³ï

ç

ÙïLìíޕåmÝ.ßáÜÓÝzÜâÞyãäÜPޕåmÝzà

ç

ãmãäØ{åLޕÝzÜPޕØ.ß)¸³º

ƒ

–{

VN

{8{

c

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

Consequently, the research aim of the thesis is to build a dynamic system that can be effectively used to optimize acceptance threshold in a credit scoring model in order to

Die Mitarbeiter werden vorher für diese Vorgehensweise trainiert und die beiden externen Experten stehen die- sen beim Konsensmeeting bei und sorgen gemeinsam um die konsistente

The results of the proposed monitoring approach are encouraging. Visual inspection indicates that the predicted values from the different models cap- ture the movement of the

● SCS bedeuetet Vorteile für Behörden: Zugriff auf neue Datenquellen, mehr Überwachung, Teilen der Daten mit anderen Behörden, mehr Macht durch Sanktionen, Erweiterung

 Die Datenanalystin und Mitentwicklerin des Social Dashboards (und IBM Watson), Maria Wallace, nimmt an, dass Daten über das Engagement der MitarbeiterInnen heute

Results for the Science and Reading total score gaps at different quantiles In this part we will look at the PISA test score gaps at different quantiles to un- derstand whether

In the present application h(γ, α) is the difference of the latent cumulative distribution functions at some point γ, and the nuissance param- eter α is the propensity score. First,

33 Ideally, one would prefer not to aggregate subsets of variables into partial scores before the partial scores are aggregated into a borrower’s final credit score.